Market Talk / Dec. 31 - Jan. 6

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
December 31, 2006 ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................For the year S&P was up 13.6%, Russell 2000 up 17.0%. Fundamentals look good for 2007.

Con-Yak...................................They didn't fix all the pot holes!

Jester-Yak................................1st trade day bearish, 2nd bullish. I saw that in your Stock Traders Almanac (STA).

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................73.22 up +0.84 for the week.
Stops.......................................Alert: 72.60. Trail: 71.90.
MACD hist.................................-0.020, flat.
Trend (P-SAR)............................positive.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 70.42 [30] decreasing!

Dollar.......................................83.67 dn -0.13 for the week...USD Index

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................61.05, dn -1.36 for the week...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G:34, F=00, C=11, S=12, I=43
Leaders Play...............................Bearish: 34%...Bullish: 66%.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22
....(1 week past)........G=11.70..F=11.16..C=15.60..S=18.63..I=22.02
....(2 week Past)........G=11.69..F=11.17..C=15.78..S=18.94..I=22.07
....(3 week past)........G=11.68..F=11.17..C=15.58..S=18.91..I=21.71
....(4 week past)........G-11.67..F=11.23..C=15.43..S=18.70..I=21.54

....(12-30-2005).........G=11.16..F=10.67..C=13.55..S=16.27..I=17.59

Le Chart​

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

 

[James48843]

First, I want to thank everybody here, especially Tom, for what TSP talk has become.

It is because of all of you- the TSPTALKERS- that I just posted a year much better than had I tried to do it in a vacuum, without all the information gleened here.

Prior to 2006, I was mostly a buy-and-hold guy. I did ok. Then in October of 2005 or so, I found the TSPTALK website. And I downloaded the tracker, and started watching. And learning. And listening. and tracking my OWN accout. And being amazed at what benefit TSP Talk became to me.

I didn't start actually posting my moves until April. I moved up over 7 percent before I started posting my moves, and moved up good aftre I started posting my moves. TSP tracking has been a blessing to me.

The tracker is a great, great asset to anyone in learning how to manage for best returns and preservation of capital. I am glad that this year (Just since I strated posting in April) I was able to manage:

My Return vs…
vs G Fund = 12.71%
vs F Fund = 10.85%
vs C Fund = 6.60%
vs S Fund = 12.31%
vs I Fund = 4.30%
vs Div. Acct (20% each) = 9.35%
vs 40% F, 60% Stocks = 8.98%

:nuts:
That wouldn't have been possible without everybody who contributes their thoughts, worries, and ideas here. Wow. Cool. Information is power.

For anyone who hasn't yet download the new, improved TSP personal tracker excel spreadsheet for 2007, here is where you find it:

http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities.html

Thanks Tom for making the TSP tracker tool available.

I'll be sure to paypal you a small donation-and I urge everyone else who finds this place a valuable place, to paypal a donation as well. Money is tight, so I can't donate what it is really worth to me, but I will put in something. It's well worth it.

Be sure to download, plug in your opening positions, and the opening year share prices, so that you can begin tracking your own account.

The 2006 end of year share prices, your starting point for 2007, are found at:
http://tsp.gov/rates/share-prices.html

Thanks Tom, for creating it. Thanks SPAF, for your wonderful daily listing of the charts and information. Thanks Rokid, for keeping the top performer's list. And everyoe else- too numerous to mention, that make TSP Talk what it is.
Thanks EVERYBODY, for making contributions here, that give us information and ideas.

Thanks everybody,
Happy New Year,
A toast to TSP Talk (Clink)
and let's go gettem in 2007!

 

[06savefor2012]

Tom, that last change you made to the F Fund was an act of desperation that probably caused your followers to lose even more money. I for one am glad you are throwing in the towel. Like I have been saying over and over "GO I FUND" next two years.

 

[SkyPilot]

Looks like another incarnation of Desperado/HarryPotter, etc.... If you are really new, then it is curious how you could have been saying anything "over and over".

Let's stop this nonsense before it starts (again).

Tom, that last change you made to the F Fund was an act of desperation that probably caused your followers to lose even more money. I for one am glad you are throwing in the towel. Like I have been saying over and over "GO I FUND" next two years.

 

[robo]

Tom, that last change you made to the F Fund was an act of desperation that probably caused your followers to lose even more money. I for one am glad you are throwing in the towel. Like I have been saying over and over "GO I FUND" next two years.

You are the man! The next two years in the I Fund you say. Will that be buy and hold or Market Timing. I'm still trying to figure out where to go in 2007 and your talking about 2008. However, you could be correct, but I'll have to wait and see.

With that Fearless Forecast would you mind predicting the return for each year and what the dollar will be doing. I appreciate it since I'm paying money for that advice and you already have the answer. Thanks in advance.


Take care!


SkyPilot,

I agree. I only had a small request for such a Fearless Forecaster.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Looks like another incarnation of Desperado/HarryPotter, etc.... If you are really new, then it is curious how you could have been saying anything "over and over".

Let's stop this nonsense before it starts (again).

nah... not desp/harry...This guy's just a sociopath

 

[Spaf]

06savefor2012

Your post was mailed to the addresse!
3 other posts were included

Lets be polite!
Spaf

 

[tsptalk]

Lets be polite!

No problem Spaf. He/she has a right to vent.

Tom, that last change you made to the F Fund was an act of desperation that probably caused your followers to lose even more money.

Great call - after the fact. You really went out on limb there. Did you read the reason I made that move? Did you comment then? I guess you knew the housing market was going to turn around last week but failed to tell us.

"lose even more money?" You're confused. Yes, we lost a quarter of a percent last week. First negative week since September. Maybe I should just stay in the G fund and never come out. Is that what you're saying? Or are you saying to take more chances, just don't lose money? Can't win.

Stocks will take a hit soon and so will your account. That's part of the game. You can play it your way, I'll play it my way. But next time, why don't you let us know beforehand when we are about to lose money? You get a little more respect around here that way.

 

[atcsat64]

Tom, that last change you made to the F Fund was an act of desperation that probably caused your followers to lose even more money.

Tom, I didn't realize that you had all the members TSP account information and passwords along with the ability to override their transactions and free will... Is this some kind of "cult" website that I joined?

"His ignorance is encyclopedic" - Abba Eban (1915-2002)

"Don't be so humble - you are not that great." - Golda Meir

"People demand freedom of speech to make up for the freedom of thought which they avoid." - Soren Aabye Kierkegaard

Those are for you since you like them so much, savingfor2012, and this one is for Tom:

"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted." - Albert Einstein

Thanks again for a great site, Tom! Happy New Year to you and to all here who have helped me learn to make money!

Rusty

 

[dell]

Tom, that last change you made to the F Fund was an act of desperation that probably caused your followers to lose even more money. I for one am glad you are throwing in the towel. Like I have been saying over and over "GO I FUND" next two years.

Like YOU'VE been saying ?? Gues I just missed it. You need to remember that you, and you alone are responsible for youir investment decisions.

Dell

 

[Wheels]

"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted." - Albert Einstein

Off topic but this reminded me of one of my favorite quotes as well.

“He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.”

-martyred missionary Jim Elliot

 

[grandma]

Tom, that last change you made .... probably caused your followers to lose even more money.
........I have been saying over and over "GO I FUND" next two years.

Fantastic! NOW I have someone to blame when I lose in the I fund - it ripped me to pieces several months ago !!! Just as soon as I have time, Mr. 2012, I will copy & paste your words so I don't have to wreck my sunny dispostion thinking up vocabulary for the havoc YOU (apparently, according to your statements) have caused in my account!
Sincerely yours, g.

 

[Birchtree]

Gee, did someone mention the reincarnation of a latent sociopath? I'm familiar with only one that being the Medusa of DMA.

 

[JOVARN]

Happy new year to all.
Ok, it’s a new year; what am I going to do differently?
I did well last year until that gloomy day in may . Just to re-cap; I was sunning in the FL keys partying on the sandbar when the market dropped. Being influenced by way too much alcohol and the lack of a computer, I just sat back and took the long ride down. Now the good news; I stayed in the I and S fund and made back the May loss, but then screwed up again and got out in September and have been in G ever since.
Pending a catastrophic event that will send the market plummeting to the depths of our deficit, what would be a good reentry point. With 11 years left to work I am in no great hurry.

 

[Show-me]

Happy new year to all.
Ok, it’s a new year; what am I going to do differently?
I did well last year until that gloomy day in may . Just to re-cap; I was sunning in the FL keys partying on the sandbar when the market dropped. Being influenced by way too much alcohol and the lack of a computer, I just sat back and took the long ride down. Now the good news; I stayed in the I and S fund and made back the May loss, but then screwed up again and got out in September and have been in G ever since.
Pending a catastrophic event that will send the market plummeting to the depths of our deficit, what would be a good reentry point. With 11 years left to work I am in no great hurry.

Happy new year to you to JOVARN.

Several of us took that May "smack down". I was down 5% by the time it was over, my only negative month. Another lesson learned.

Nice recovery on your part.

IMHO the risk remains high but the trend is still up. I'm not sure what to do either. One thing I do know is that right now I will not "set it and forget it". The market has been going strong for over 5 months and IMHO needs a rest and .................. I could be wrong.

Very difficult to be on the side line but scary to jump in after a 5 month bull run.

What to do? That is the million dollar question. :worried:

 

[Spaf]

Sentiment wise; The best months to be in the market are from November through April. However, February tends to be negative. May through October are the worst months [Re: Stock Traders Almanac].
2007 has some what of a different perspective; namely the Fed has seemingly stopped rasing interest rates, oil is off the highs and the fundamentals are looking good for a soft landing.

 

[Birchtree]

Major trends very seldom end without signs of serious distribution. So far, we have none. John Doe public is still on the fence - waiting, waiting, waiting for what? A 2% correction? Keep'em scared and waiting as long as possible - the bull wants to see the market move higher, but at the same time, keep the majority from participating. Remember: your best trades will always tend to be the ones in which your stomach churns - ain't it grand?

 

[mayday]

Major trends very seldom end without signs of serious distribution. So far, we have none. John Doe public is still on the fence - waiting, waiting, waiting for what? A 2% correction? Keep'em scared and waiting as long as possible - the bull wants to see the market move higher, but at the same time, keep the majority from participating. Remember: your best trades will always tend to be the ones in which your stomach churns - ain't it grand?

Is your grand stomach churning Birch?

 

[Birchtree]

No my stomach is fine for the moment - my wife in her international fund is another case altogether. I funders should perhaps think in terms of a blow off, while euphoric in the short term - would likely mean a top and a scary correction. They are due more than the U.S. market. Europe reported that their money supply is expanding at the fastest rate in almost 16 years, which has led to speculation that higher European Central Bank interest rate increases are in the wings. And if we slow they will slow possibly dramatically. The S&P futures are already up 10 points.

 

[Spaf]

What kind of vehicle is Mr. Market driving?​

The first half of 2006 Mr. Market was driving a gas guzzler with high taxes (rates).​

Now, he seems to have a new vehicle! Low gas and stable taxes.
Is it a hybrid?​