Market Talk / Dec. 18 - 24

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Big run at the close :^ from Ed Downs!!
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[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow opened the session with a nice advance this morning, but quickly pulled back from the highs in what became a trading range session throughout much of the day, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index eventually edged higher to the Close and ended the day with a quiet 56 point gain. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Daily and 60 Minute Charts show the Dow continues to wind up within the boundaries of the large narrowing trading range, which we will continue to focus in on. It's now looking clear that the Dow may close out the year within the boundaries of this range before the big breakout is seen. However, when a break does occur, it is sure to spark a huge move, so keep a close eye on the range. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Continued range movement is expected between the boundaries of 10,940 and 10,780 tomorrow. Only a break of either of these levels will spark clear and solid movement. However, 10,900 an d10,820 could offer early directional clues. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Short Term Dow [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow closed the day with a nice intraday trend line formed beneath the lows of the late-day advance, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. A break of this line at 10,875 will make for weakness at the Open. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Medium Term Dow [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]In the medium term, we are still out of the market and will watch 10,950 up and 10,775 down; using 20 point stops. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]NASDAQ & S&P [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The NASDAQ and S&P each pushed higher late in the day, but continue to hold within their respective ranges. Look for continued sideways behavior until a decisive break occurs. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Summary [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow ended the day quietly higher today, but continues to trade within the broad boundaries of the narrowing trading range. This behavior could persist into the first trading day of January before a breakout occurs. Keep an eye on the outer limits of the range, as a breakout should lead to key movement. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading! [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com
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[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Sr. Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com
[/font]
 
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Birchtree wrote:
Will the Fed shut down General Motors by increasing interest rates again. I think the country is starting to feel pain in several areas and that should be a significant signal for them to pause. They have accomplished their goals and now it's time to rest.

Uh, no.
 
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The Thrift Savings Plan is closed on Monday, December 26, 2005, for Christmas Day. Therefore, share prices will not be updated and transactions will not be processed until the following business day.
 
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Some Morning commentsfrom a Tech:

TheSmart Money Indicator(bright blue line) made it 5 days of straight losses as it gave up 13 points yesterday and fell to yet another three- year low -- certainly not a chart to instill confidence in us about next year's market.


23derfSMIVOL.gif




The survey of the members of the American Association of Independent Investors is also tracing out a pattern that is familiar at market tops -- the 8-week moving average is rising towards the 70% level where it has topped out with the market on four occasions since January 2003, as illustrated below.

23derfAAII.gif

A couple of chartsthat might be worth watching early next year....
 
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My belief is that the market for the EAFE closes before our domestic market closes (about) 2pm EST I think. If you look at yesterday's chart of the EAFE you'll see that the fund closed higher at 4pm than it would have at 2pm. It appears to me that we had a little help in this regard.
 
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Yes, it was driven by yesterdays USD loss of position vs. yen. Also driven by Deutschland's gain, today.
 
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TSPMONEY.COM reports.

Friday the 23rd

F 0.05

C 0.06

S 0.14

I 0.08

I didn't think the S or I did that well today. Hope it's accurate

I'll take it

Everyone have a great Holiday
 
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coolhand wrote:
My belief is that the market for the EAFE closes before our domestic market closes (about) 2pm EST I think. If you look at yesterday's chart of the EAFE you'll see that the fund closed higher at 4pm than it would have at 2pm. It appears to me that we had a little help in this regard.
EAFE wasat least1.5% lower at anytime today than at the same time yesterday.

23DEC2005.jpg
 
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Maybe the fact that the Japanese markets were closed caused some sort of a glitch in the charting software.
 
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I want to wish all TSP Talkmembers and readers a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and the best of holidays to you and your family. This is a great time of the year to spend time with and enjoy your family and friends. Thanks to all the members that post, Birchtree, Technician, Skip, Spaf, Tekno, Greg, Mikeand many, many,more for your comments and market insight.

A special thanks to Tom for all the work he does to keep the site up and his daily comments. I hope all readers and members that enjoy the board will send him a donation to help keep the board going.

Again, Best of Holidays to you and your family!!!!!



Good trading in 2006!!!!
 
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Well, its time to close down this thread! And, start a new one!

Merry Christmas!!
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Spaf
 
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