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Market Talk / Dec. 17 - 23
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Nimrod1193
Member
You! Yes, you behind the bike-sheds...stand still Laddie!
Griffin
Well-known member
coolhand
Well-known member
Makes me feel like a long tail cat in a room full of rocking chairs!....
That's what I wanted to know. Thanks Spaf.
Griffin
Well-known member
In the last ten days, futures have been green most of them of which only one ended green with any sizable gains, of the couple of mornings futures have been red, we have had only one sizable down day.
My point - futures are only good for predicting the first 15-20 minutes of the trading day.
My point - futures are only good for predicting the first 15-20 minutes of the trading day.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. November personal income rose 0.3% (consensus 0.4%) while personal spending rose 0.5% (consensus 0.6%). The more closely watched core-PCE deflator, meanwhile, was flat (consensus 0.2%) to put the year-over-year rate at 2.2%. Durable Orders rose a larger than expected 1.9% in November (consensus 1.5%), while nondefense capital goods orders excluding transportation, which provide a clearer read on underlying business capital investment, fell 1.1%. Futures indications have pulled back slightly following the data and now point to a mixed start for the cash market. Bonds, though, have improved a bit, pushing the yield on the 10-yr note (-3/32) to 4.55%.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Sounds good!!
December revised Michigan consumer sentiment comes in at 91.7, above expectations. More details soon.
http://money.cnn.com/index.html?cnn=yes
December revised Michigan consumer sentiment comes in at 91.7, above expectations. More details soon.
http://money.cnn.com/index.html?cnn=yes
Birchtree
Well-known member
Fivetears,
The Birch has been buying U.S. equities all week with fatuous greed and I'm seriously not done yet. More wall flowers on the list for next week. This little correction is great for a dollar cost averaging approach - I like to practice what I preach. Buy'em and tuck'em.
The Birch has been buying U.S. equities all week with fatuous greed and I'm seriously not done yet. More wall flowers on the list for next week. This little correction is great for a dollar cost averaging approach - I like to practice what I preach. Buy'em and tuck'em.
ayla
Member
Just noticed that the VIX 20 day SMA crossed over and above the VIX 50 day SMA on Dec 19th.
Should have caught that. (too much to look at, yikes!) That is a pretty major milestone but not as major as when the VIX crosses over its 200 day SMA. The VIX 200 SMA value today is 12.97 - the VIX closed today at 11.36 which is 7.9% above yesterday. So to reach its 200 day average, according to my calculations, it needs to rise another 14.2%.
Not impossible to do in one day. We'll see. That won't be the peak but it will be almost for sure a sign that a peak is imminent (even more imminent than when the 20 day crosses over and above the 50 day SMA). And in this case, a VIX peak means a market correction almost for sure.
The point to buy back in is shortly after the VIX 20 day SMA starts descending, sometimes this can be a little tricky with some new tops of the 20 day SMA forming. I'm not sure if I"m going to try to time it or whether I will just stay the heck away until the VIX passes below the 200 day. Since I hate to be out of the market, I think I know which strategy I'll choose (unfortunately LOL).
Should have caught that. (too much to look at, yikes!) That is a pretty major milestone but not as major as when the VIX crosses over its 200 day SMA. The VIX 200 SMA value today is 12.97 - the VIX closed today at 11.36 which is 7.9% above yesterday. So to reach its 200 day average, according to my calculations, it needs to rise another 14.2%.
Not impossible to do in one day. We'll see. That won't be the peak but it will be almost for sure a sign that a peak is imminent (even more imminent than when the 20 day crosses over and above the 50 day SMA). And in this case, a VIX peak means a market correction almost for sure.
The point to buy back in is shortly after the VIX 20 day SMA starts descending, sometimes this can be a little tricky with some new tops of the 20 day SMA forming. I'm not sure if I"m going to try to time it or whether I will just stay the heck away until the VIX passes below the 200 day. Since I hate to be out of the market, I think I know which strategy I'll choose (unfortunately LOL).
ATCJeff
Well-known member
A very interesting aticle from Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles
http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm
Jeff
http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm
Jeff
mayday
Active member
Got me standing on egg-shells. BOO
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Will be closing this weekly thread and starting a new one!
Thanks for alll the posts and views.
Regards
Spaf
Thanks for alll the posts and views.
Regards
Spaf
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