Market Talk / Dec. 17 - 23

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
December 17, 2006 ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Uptrend holding. Maybe it will stay intact. The week after Triple Witching the Dow has been up 11 of the last 14.

Con-Yak...................................Oil was up for the week, but Small caps arn't moving?

Jester-Yak................................Will Santa have a party on Thursday?

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................74.03 up +0.88 for the week.
Stops.......................................Alert: 73.63. Trail: 72.93
MACD hist.................................+0.071, decreasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................positive.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 69.40 [30] decreasing!

$USD........................................84.05 up +0.73 for the week.

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................63.43, up +1.40 for the week...http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G=22, F=25, C=15, S=04, I=34
Leaders Play...............................Bullish: 53%...Bearish 47%.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.69..F=11.17..C=15.78..S=18.94..I=22.07
....(1 week past)........G=11.68..F=11.17..C=15.58..S=18.91..I=21.71
....(2 week past)........G-11.67..F=11.23..C=15.43..S=18.70..I=21.54
....(3 week past)........G=11.66..F=11.15..C=15.47..S=18.78..I=21.31
....(5 week past)........G=11.65..F=11.12..C=15.46..S=18.60..I=21.11
....(12-30-2005).........G=11.16..F=10.67..C=13.55..S=16.27..I=17.59

Le Chart​

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
[annotations added]​

 

[Fivetears]

Le Pew​

​

 

[Birchtree]

Anything that is posted from the new york times has to have a left hook attached to it. Ask Peppy Le Pew.

 

[Fivetears]

Now Birch. NYT publisher Arthur Sulzberger apologized. :nuts:
http://www.dailyfreeman.com/site/printerFriendly.cfm?brd=1769&dept_id=74969&newsid=16672880

 

[James48843]

Tom's comment:

Very interesting. And because of this I am going to change the day of the start of the Sentiment Survey from Thursday night to Wednesday night so that on Friday morning you can view the results of the survey and, if you'd like, make an interfund transfer before the Friday deadline to have it effective Monday morning - mimicking this study.

Again, this week's reading is 69% bullish, 14% bearish - 4.93 to 1 ratio.

Uh-oh: Better move out of stocks pronto.

Note: Changing the start of the sentiment survey from Thursday night to Wednesday night changes the reliability of the data. The data from Wednesday night may negate some of those "black thursday" results, that impact on how I usually vote.

It IS an interesting concept. Tom, I just hope you know start publishing how this new theroy would have the accounts- so that we all can see whether it's in 100% G, in the mix, or simply retaining the previous week's location.

I'm game to give it a try.

 

[airlift]

James,

Good suggestion.

 

[Show-me]

Tom,

Your thinking outside the box. Definitely interesting results! Are we the dumb or smart money? And, now that we are aware of this information will it skew the results?

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0.

 

[fabijo]

Spaf,

Thanks for posting the leaders' allocation average. Look at how little is in the S fund!

 

[Chaser]

Tom,

Your thinking outside the box. Definitely interesting results! Are we the dumb or smart money? And, now that we are aware of this information will it skew the results?

It's probably fair and charitable to call us "the not so smart money".

How would Tom's theory work with the AAII sentiment survey used instead of the TSP Bull/Bear survey?

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
December 18, 2006 Closing ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks soared!

Con-Yak...................................And profit takers shot them down!

Jester-Yak................................Gads!!

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................73.92 dn -0.11.
Stops.......................................Alert: 73.63. Trail: 72.93
MACD hist.................................+0.063, decreasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................positive.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 67.69 [30] increasing

$USD........................................83.99 dn -0.06

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................62.21, dn -1.22
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G=43, F=43, C=14, S=00, I=00
Leaders Play...............................Bullish: 14%...Bearish 86%.

 

[Birchtree]

That is an extreme leaders play bull/bear reading - as a contrarian I'll be buying again tomorrow. The big risk at this point is being out, not being in. There is a reason all the professionals are bullish. And they may just be correct.

 

[Propstrike]

GO BULLS! I'm always a day late or a day early. Guess I need to get a bigger gut.

 

[mlk_man]

Hope everyone is in the Nasdaq today...............:nuts:

06:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -378.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +370.0.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.3. Early indications suggest yesterday's weakness will carry over into this morning's open. An in-line report and new license revenue shortfall from Oracle Corp (ORCL) is adding to the sense that tech stocks are overbought on a short-term basis. Biogen Idec (BIIB) plunging 5% in pre-market action, amid reports of two deaths tied to its Rituxan drug, is also taking a toll on Nasdaq 100 futures, which are trading well below fair value.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.8. Futures trade spikes lower after latest read on inflation counters last Friday's favorable CPI data, now pointing to an even weaker open for the cash market. Total PPI rose 2.0% (consensus 0.5%) in November while the more closely-watched core rate rose a much higher than expected 1.3% (consensus 0.2%). Housing starts rose 6.7% in November to 1.59 mln (consensus 1.55 mln) while building permits fell to 1.51 mln (consensus 1.54 mln). Bonds, which were up slightly ahead of the data, are plunging as the 10-yr note is now down 8 ticks to yield 4.61%.

 

[weatherweenie]

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.3. After initially deciding to impose currency controls on international investors, which triggered a 15% plunge in Thailand's stock market and sparked contagion concerns in the emerging markets, Thailand now says it will reverse those controls. While the baht issue originally conjured up memories of the 1997 currency crisis and acted as an additional overhang on this morning's action, producer prices surging the most in decades and mixed news on the corporate front remain the driving factors for sellers to take some more money off the table.

 

[ayla]

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.8. ....

weatherweenie (or anyone else)-- would you care to add a few explanatory notes about what "futures vs fair value" really means or a link that might help? Sounds intriguing. I briefly did a search but didn't find anything on this in any of the "investment tutorial" places on the web that generally explain these kinds of things to the uninitiated (i.e. that would be me).

 

[Propstrike]

weatherweenie (or anyone else)-- would you care to add a few explanatory notes about what "futures vs fair value" really means or a link that might help? Sounds intriguing. I briefly did a search but didn't find anything on this in any of the "investment tutorial" places on the web that generally explain these kinds of things to the uninitiated (i.e. that would be me).

Here's a little something, not what I was looking for though. Hope it helps ayla

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fairvalue.asp

 

[SkiUtah]

Looking like yesterday and early today were the rolling correction. I'm emotionally attached to this santa rally, please santa, don't make me cry.