Market Talk / Dec. 14 - 20

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Monday Edition
December 15, 2008​

General Commentary:

Yep still in Bearsville! The market climate says a long winter in Bearsville, any departure will be a slow trip. Don't plan on driving a new Cadillac hi-bred unless you can drop 60K up front. Hummers are on the endangered species list. Meanwhile the Bankers at vultures bend have started feasting on each other while subs face the peril of the unforgiven.

The children of TSP remain in a peril of starvation, while the overseerers feast on their captivity; for yes there were bargains to find in the selling of souls.

A look at the chart(s)
The S&P500 [$SPX] Daily
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Pricing was at the 13dma; indecision, but bearish at higher averages. Resistance should be seen around 925 on the S&P.

The Bollinger Bands remain volatile.

The P-SAR registers bullish, hopefully as a bottom sets in, with support around 800.

Volume has been light of little strength.

The S-STO now plays in overbought levels.

The MACD is now starting to struggle at the higher levels.

Well, that's it for the weekend!​

Be careful out there!​

 

[Spaf]

Monday, December 15th 2008

08:30 Markets Open, slightly up........

 

[malyla]

Monday, December 15th 2008

08:30 Markets Open, slightly up........

10:30am - Ummmm

What is happening?

 

[Spaf]

Maybe a gulp!
Folks talking about the $50 billion involved with the Madoff fraud!.....:notrust:

 

[JOVARN]

10:30am - Ummmm

What is happening?

The worst is yet to come!! I see no light at the end of this tunnel for some time. Credit card defaults along with the 2nd round of mortgage defaults will blast the economy next. The unemployment rolls will continue to swell.
Going back to G on Dec 24th unless that day is also declared a holiday. My plans for the New Year is selling at 8900 and buy at 7800 give or take a few points either way.
I also plan to help my son buy a home around Oct 2010 that’s if he continues on the path of matrimony scheduled for Oct 2009, hopefully there is a light at the end of that tunnel for me. He and his future bride just told us that they are planning to live with us for the 1st year while they save up for a 25% down payment on their DREAM HOME. I can only hope!! it comes with a dock

 

[Spaf]

10:30am - Ummmm

What is happening?

The Madoff fraud kind of took the interest out of investing. One of many reasons to diversify. And, to be your own financial manager...

Well, we ended with the S&P giving back -11.16. Could have been worse.

A penney is worth quite a lot! In wisdom. Above Lincoln's head are the words "In God we trust". Hmmm, nothing there about anyone else...:notrust:

 

[James48843]

FED CUTS RATE
A FULL PERCENTAGE POINT-

CALLS IT ""ZERO TO 0.25% RANGE".


Incredible.


Never been at zero before.

 

[James48843]

Fed cuts target for key rate to record low

Fed cuts target for key interest rate to record low, pledges to use all available tools.

• Tuesday December 16, 2008, 2:35 pm EST

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve has cut its target for a key interest rate to the lowest level on record and pledged to use "all available tools" to combat a severe financial crisis and prolonged recession.

The central bank on Tuesday said it had reduced the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, to a range of zero to 0.25 percent. That is down from the 1 percent target rate in effect since the last meeting in October. Many analysts had expected the Fed to make a smaller cut to 0.5 percent.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues also pledged to use "all available tools" as they struggle to contain a financial crisis that is the worst since the 1930s and a recession that is already the longest in a quarter-century.

The Fed also made clear that it intends to keep the funds rate at extremely low levels.

"The committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time," the central bank's panel that sets interest rates said in a statement.

The Fed's decision is expected to be quickly matched by a reduction in banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark rate for millions of business and consumer loans. Before the Fed announcement, the prime rate stood at 4 percent.

The Fed has never pushed its target for the federal funds rate as low as zero to 0.25 percent. The lowest target rate before had been 1 percent, a level seen only once before in the past half-century.

Given how low interest rates are, the central bank said it planned to use a variety of unconventional methods to flood the banking system with credit and drive interest rates lower.

"The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability," the Fed said.

 

[James48843]

Bad, bad bad news.

I bet the market will now tank big time.

There are now no bullets left in the gun.

Time to throw the empty revolver at the target, turn away, and run like heck.

Too late for me to bail today. But I don't like the looks of things.

 

[Birchtree]

The Fed has an open ended balance sheet utilizing quantitative easing - hold the line there Laddy. Nah, no reason to cut and run.

 

[James48843]

The Fed has an open ended balance sheet utilizing quantitative easing -....

..open ended balance sheet utilizing Qualitative Easing?

Is that anything like owning the printing press that makes the money?

 

[Gumby]

..open ended balance sheet utilizing Qualitative Easing?

Is that anything like owning the printing press that makes the money?

Watch the dollar drop over the next month. Is a worldwide currency going to be used instead of the dollar that will lose value as investors move towards a currency with a return greater than zero?:worried::worried:

 

[James48843]

Note-

the S&P 500 is exactly at the 50 day moving average right now. 902. It hasn't broken the 50 day since Sept 8th, just before the "crash crash" began.


Well it end above it, or will the 50 day be a solid ceiling?

We'll know in 45 minutes.

 

[Birchtree]

The dollar will stabilize because everyone else will also lower their rates. 400 points today and more tomorrow.

 

[JTH]

Note-

the S&P 500 is exactly at the 50 day moving average right now. 902. It hasn't broken the 50 day since Sept 8th, just before the "crash crash" began.


Well it end above it, or will the 50 day be a solid ceiling?

We'll know in 45 minutes.

It's been broken, here's to hoping we stay above it

 

[Birchtree]

The 50 day line is at 910 - we closed at 913.18. From 1945 through 2007, the S&P 500 had 49 one-day moves of 4% or more, which is an average of less than one per year. This year we've had 29 such moves - that'll be 30 counting tomorrow. Time to squeeze the bears.

 

[McDuck]

The 50 day line is at 910 - we closed at 913.18. From 1945 through 2007, the S&P 500 had 49 one-day moves of 4% or more, which is an average of less than one per year. This year we've had 29 such moves - that'll be 30 counting tomorrow. Time to squeeze the bears.

Best Days of the Dow (% Gain)

1 15.3% March 15, 1933
2 14.9% October 6, 1931
3 12.3% October 30, 1929
4 11.1% October 13, 2008
5 10.1% October 21, 1987
6 9.5% August 3, 1932
7 9.5% February 11, 1932
8 9.4% November 14, 1929
9 9.4% December 18, 1931
10 9.2% February 13, 1932

#3 was the day after the great crash of 1929.

 

[budnipper1]

Bad, bad bad news.
I bet the market will now tank big time.
There are now no bullets left in the gun.
Time to throw the empty revolver at the target, turn away, and run like heck. Too late for me to bail today. But I don't like the looks of things.

"While the Fed can’t push interest rates below zero, “the second arrow in the Federal Reserve’s quiver -- the provision of liquidity -- remains effective,” Bernanke said in a Dec. 1 speech."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aZS8x0eXMOiA&refer=home

Printing Money :suspicious:
“The Fed is sending a message that it will print money to an unlimited extent until it starts to see the economy expanding,” William Poole, former president of the St. Louis Fed and now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Poole is also a contributor to Bloomberg News.
​

 

[Birchtree]

The DJIA 50 day line is at 9033. The charts point to a retest of the Nov. 30th high of 897.50, a break above which should trigger a move that projects to 940.60. A break above 1008.50 certifies the November low, as the absolute low. Technical traders will have confirmation that the bear market's back has been broken once the VIX breaks the 60-day moving average uptrend. The Fed is going to reduce mortgage rates so low that confidence will go through the roof. Bernanke is pulling the strings to our economy - finally.

 

[budnipper1]

If this momentum decides to carry forward I'll be forced to re-enter the market and do more buying instead of resting - we'll see. I hate the thought of this market running away from me even though I'm already loaded up to my chin. I suspect we just went through the NYSE breadth MCSUM tops line heading for -250 and then to the zero line. Did the VIX break below the triangular pattern - heading now for low 40s.

The DJIA 50 day line is at 9033. The charts point to a retest of the Nov. 30th high of 897.50, a break above which should trigger a move that projects to 940.60. A break above 1008.50 certifies the November low, as the absolute low. Technical traders will have confirmation that the bear market's back has been broken once the VIX breaks the 60-day moving average uptrend. The Fed is going to reduce mortgage rates so low that confidence will go through the roof. Bernanke is pulling the strings to our economy - finally.

I hope all this data is accurate and heads in your assumed direction. You are helping to fade this yellow streak that's been tatooed on my back. :embarrest: