Market Talk / Dec. 11 - 17

[Wheels]

imported post

JOVARN wrote:

The horses are on the track, they are even going into the final turn. Which fund is going to break out in the last 2 hours.

Doesn't look like it's going to be the S fund. I have done very well the last couple of months, using the various funds to finally get a few percent above the benchmark C. I was feeling pretty pleased with myself until this week. I have been 100% S all week and the C is clobbering the S this week. I thought with the Fed signaling a slowdown on rate hikes, that the S would like that and rally but alas I was wrong again. So what gives? Is this where the S fund finally slows down and the C rules for a while?

Thoughts?

Dave

<><

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

u know Dave I think the S fund and I fund are in a dead heat till EOY...then I wouldn't be in either......

:dude:

 

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Dec. 15, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Stox hide from Friday's witch.

Does strong economics mean more rates for Slowdown?

Elsewhere:.......Bears have gas down 6.1%


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at..................1270.94, dn -1.80
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.106, dn
RSI (strength) at...........65.5, dn
MACD (trend).....bearish
S-STO (signal)....bullish
P-SAR (signal)....bullish
ROC (change).....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............61.10 dn -0.77

Tea Leaves:.....................Green.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1261. Trail: 1249.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Dow Transports and Dow Utilities still moving higher against trend. We aresetting up for a Dow Theory confirmation before yearend. Me thinks anyway. We might even see a new all time high Dow Industrials above 11,722. That would be excellent because speculative money is trapped in real estate and all they will see is the smoke trail.

Dennis

 

[Wheels]

imported post

Small caps once again not participating - bummer.

Dave

<><

 

[ou81200]

imported post

It would seem that the I fund has been a saving grace for those invested in it.

Any inputs on the future of the I fund???

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Looks a bit pricey, but as long as the dollar appears to be weakening, it's the place to be if you want to be in a stock fund over the next several weeks, imho.

Have a great weekend!
Tom

 

[Show-me]

imported post

ou81200 wrote:

It would seem that the I fund has been a saving grace for those invested in it.

Any inputs on the future of the I fund???

Yippie!

 

[ou81200]

imported post

I may lighten up on the S fund some. If memory serves, the S fund was outperforming earlier this year while the C fund was lagging. I also read an article somewhere that when the feds stop their rate increases, the large cap stocks will benefit the most. I may diversify my S fund investments into C&I. I also think that the dollar will continue it's slide. That's my rational forbeing invested in the I fund. However, at the first of the year, I may be re-thinking my strategy.

 

[robo]

imported post

Wheels wrote:

Small caps once again not participating - bummer.

Big money taking profits, stay cautious and take some profits or keep your stops close... Rallies contiune to be met will selling pressure... .... The A/D line has not been good....CAUTION!!! I think we can go higher, but the risk reward is currently getting high..... Plenty of time to make money next year, it should be a good one!!! However, I'm a conservative investor, but if your aggressive HAVE FUN!!!!!

Currently around 25% in equities and I'm going 100% money markets next week.... Selling into all rallies....For those that stay long I hope you get your BLAST OFF!!!!!! GO Birchtree!!!!! I'm joining Tom on the sidelines.....

 

[JOVARN]

imported post

Inormally hate to buy high, butwhen thehigh may be the low what is one to do.

Does anyone believe that the highs in the I fund may be its low at this time?

 

[vicky]

imported post

JOVARN wrote:

Inormally hate to buy high, butwhen thehigh may be the low what is one to do.
Does anyone believe that the highs in the I fund may be its low at this time?

Great question. I missed out on much of the I Fund gains recently because of this dilemma.

vicky

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Jovarn,

I'm not involved with the I fund via TSP - all my money is in the C fund at 100% and that to me is a very aggressive position. I happen to own another international fund in another account though - the American Funds - Europacific Fund, and I can tell you that it just completed a 7 week positive run. It would be reasonable for this fund to take a break for a few months to allow more dollar cost averaging to buy more shares at cheaper prices. I would be happy to see it side ways consolidate.

The I fund has not yet reached its' official peak in my opinion - but a period of side ways consolidation would be beneficial. This fund is composed up to 50.1% of both the United Kingdom and Japan. The financial sector is around 25%, energy at 9.5%. There is plenty of opportunity available going forward - so if this fund takes a short term rest - well what does it matter in the realm of all things considered.

The FTSE currently is trading at 5531 and had a high placed in 2000 at 6500. The Nikkei is currently at 15,173 and is headed according to analysts projections to at least 24,000. The all time high was 39,000. Lots of room to go higher. If TSP is your only account, I'd suggest a 30% buy and hold position in the I fund with similar dollar cost averaging allocations. The other 70% you can divide as you see potential, me I'd put it on the new 2006 outperformer C fund. Hope this helps.

Dennis - perma bull #2.

 

[Greg]

imported post

Birchtree wrote:

Dennis - perma bull #2.

Dennis, who is perma bull #1 ?

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Greg,

Technobucks, but I'm not sure if he will return. He's been talking with Frenchee some so I'll leave the light on just in case he finds his way back. I took heat when I first appeared on the scene because I was so bullish and my opinions have only gotten stronger as time passes. But I'm satisfied to remain #2 - I think #1 will get bored and will seek the company of those sitting in the warmth of the bull manure pile. The year 2006 will provide ample opportunity as well as danger and we all need to help each other to stay vigilant. Robo is a great addition - he will I bet put the pedal to the metal once January rolls around. And you my friend, yes even you may be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel - or heck is that the train. I think you dare to find out.

Dennis-perma bull #2

 

[JOVARN]

imported post

Very good advice Dennis. I am presently 40 I 40 S 20C

I am staying S for a while. 2006 I may change to 50C 50I as long as oil remains low

I am doing very well for the year I have no complaints I got lucky and hit all the big days at high. This week I am above water as the I fund bailed me out but I believe that the Dollar is going to tank and intrerest rate hikes will stop sooner then later

I always here what you have to say as well as others

Thanks

Joe

 

[ou81200]

imported post

I think we're into that climbing the wall of worry thing again.:l:l:l

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

Sorry Birch for given you such a brazen during the summer.....but there was a bear making haste after the first of Aug.....you permanent bull status was flexible enough and many just can't stay in for ever.....

I believe we still have 3 or so percent left in the I fund till eoy, but it remains to be seen....given the dollar value and such, we should see something till then and then we have 2006 to deal with.....it could be we shouldn't bother with the market till Feb or March kicks in......but I still see a further recession of the markets for a bit longer....

I'm not so sure the S fund should be counted out at the moment.....I still believe all three funds, CSI , will make their move till EOY....

But the accumulation advantage is with the I at the moment, C and S just haven't comparitively added up to it for the last month.....

Looking for a good week or so ahead....so good luck to you all.....

:dude:

 

[Soldat]

imported post

I feel that the I fund has a long way to go. We will see. With the small and med cap stocks trading up for the large caps, compounded by Japanese traders selling their dollars and rebuying yen, I see Japan continuing their gains. Europe is steaming strong and will continue to do so. The trend is up, anyone who bets against the trend will miss most of the up days. Remember folks, when in a bull market, go long. Dont sit on the sidelines for long or you will forget how to play the game. Buy low and sell High, it just so happens that in this tight end bull market, we ARE at the LOW. Warm regards and stay strong. No guts no glory,

Rob

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Ending this week's thread! Starting a new one!

Merry Christmas!

Spaf