Market Talk / Dec. 11 - 17

[The_Technician]

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I'm starting to believe that next year is going down...I seedeclining growth based on Elliott analysis.....for all the funds....

Between our Congressmen selling us out to the world, stablizing third world countries with our blood, moving our industries out to there to get the last little drop of profit at your expense (gee they even have moved your job to a communist country to make a buck), implementation of the bankruptcy laws (they are expecting people to drop their ablility to pay bills), CAFTA, NAFTA and so forth...Sir Greenspud running amuck for the English finance arms...its a very likely scenario....

"See your neighbor go to bankruptcy jail".....it should be a weekly game show on TV!!!

I would hope to be wrong, but who can deny this isn't happening....are weinto a controlled depression..????...lets see, there is a massive growth of money supply but who has any of it...........commodity prices are extreme....sounds like 1932 to me....just we went that way in another method....

Question remains,,,,how long do we stay this way.....

:^

:dude:

 

[robo]

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Technician Wrote:

Does anybody have an Elliot wave analysis handy

From one Technicain to another! This guy has better than average market insight Technician.... It may or may not support your analysis... Good Trading!!!

I don't want to start "structurizing", but this may be the best way to explain what's going on right now. Prices came down from the top in an a-b-c correction. The most logical structure for the final up-wave would be a 5-wave pattern. We'll expect that, but we won't get hung up on it.

From Thursday's low to this morning's high was probably wave 1 of the final 5. We are now in wave 2 (the "test-of-the-lows" wave). Since the short-term cycle has evidently bottomed, the push is up, so the test should be successful and successfully completed by tomorrow. Wave 3 is usually the big wave, so I would expect that this will happen here also.

From Thursday's low, we are already 3 days into this move, therefore the entire 5-wave pattern to the top could end by the end of the week (slight revision to the Week-end Report). This is based on minimum expectancy for the short-term cycle rally after it makes its low, going back 3 years.


There is an "alternative" wave count --as they say in Elliott parlance --that couldstretch things out, but I won't confuse you with it for now. And, in any case, the timing will be left up to the indicators after the projection is met.

If we make a new high for the move from October, these will be the projections:

SPX: 1278 - 1286 QQQQ: 42.80 - 43.20.

Let's see how that plays out!

 

[The_Technician]

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Robo, was that this past week??? It didn't have a date on it.....

Does he say anything about next year...????

Thanks

:dude:

 

[roguewave]

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Technician, you have just described the very reasons to be in the I fund. The game is heading East and ofthe choices that we have to play that transition, the I fund fits the bill. The commodity bull run is just in its infancy. Most investors miss paradigm changes and our country is in the midst of a HUGE one. As for your question.

The next generation, if not longer.



The Technician wrote:

I'm starting to believe that next year is going down...I seedeclining growth based on Elliott analysis.....for all the funds....

Between our Congressmen selling us out to the world, stablizing third world countries with our blood, moving our industries out to there to get the last little drop of profit at your expense (gee they even have moved your job to a communist country to make a buck), implementation of the bankruptcy laws (they are expecting people to drop their ablility to pay bills), CAFTA, NAFTA and so forth...Sir Greenspud running amuck for the English finance arms...its a very likely scenario....

"See your neighbor go to bankruptcy jail".....it should be a weekly game show on TV!!!

I would hope to be wrong, but who can deny this isn't happening....are weinto a controlled depression..????...lets see, there is a massive growth of money supply but who has any of it...........commodity prices are extreme....sounds like 1932 to me....just we went that way in another method....

Question remains,,,,how long do we stay this way.....

:^

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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A speculation..

Lets see...Fed says rate hike.....but mentions that the measured paceis likely to stop ....market reaction to news is good enough reason for market jump....

and later on reports of next years profits outlook dismal and therefore market drops early on next year.....

Sounds good, even better than if Fed doesn't raise rate....which has a 25% chance or less....
:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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I was speculating 62 years worth .....Elliott....

yeah, maybe I concentrate too much on CONUS and not international....all the investment overseas has got to produce something.....I just hope someone can afford tobuy it when it is produced.....and I suppose they are overthere also.....

So we sit here and wait for the world to catch up .....62 years worth of waiting....

:dude:

 

[Show-me]

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Follow the money trail!

 

[JOVARN]

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This may be a stretch but I believe lift off should begin at 1450.

 

[The_Technician]

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I am speculating the same thing.....

 

[robo]

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Technician,

12-12-05 Closing comments. He thinks the Cyclical Bull in this Secular Bear is coming to a end, and the Secular Bear market goes on....But the current trend is still up!!He is very good at short term forecasting and trading, but I don't use him for long term investing


I follow Bob Brinkerfor my long term investing using Vanguard Accounts...Bob thinks 1350 or higher next year S&P 500. He recommended in his news letter to buy the S&P 500 under 1180 this year, pretty good call... Heis excellent inforecasting longer termeconomic data and he is positive next year....Iagree with Tom...Acorrection will come and we will get a nicebuying op next year...

All bets are off if the geopolitical environment changes... Things that could tank the economy quickly, Bird FlU, Isreal/Iran, Major terriost attacks, the list goes on.... But you just can't make investment decisions based on WHAT IF......

The Market goes nowhere today until the Fed speaks!!!! Good trading!!! I'm currently very netural with lots of cash, hoping to add longs this week. I'm waiting on the market reaction to the Fed....

 

[robo]

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Jovarn wrote:

This may be a stretch but I believe lift off should begin at 1450.

If we get lift-off I will close out my final longs arond the mid to high 1280's and higher.... I'm going to cash In my Vanguard accounts around 1300... I'll be sitting with Tom waitng for the correction.... It will come.... Good Trading!!!!



If it goes the other way down, going xmas shopping and adding longs sometime tomorrow!!!

 

[JOVARN]

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I believe the feds are going to include language that will signal that interest rate increases will be coming to an end soon, they have to wake up and smell the coffee sooner or later.

People have no equity left to shop with and they are deep in debt.

I was at the Mall last PM and again this AM and they are empty.

U.S. retail sales rose a smaller-than-expected 0.3 percent in November and fell when a surge in auto purchases was excluded, setting the stage for what could be a disappointing holiday shopping season, government data showed on Tuesday.

 

[robo]

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JOVARN Wrote:

I believe the feds are going to include language that will signal that interest rate increases will be coming to an end soon, they have to wake up and smell the coffee sooner or later.

If you are correct we could test 1280's, if not 1250has good support and then back up..... I doubt the Fed will signal much, the economy is strong and they want to leave all options opened... If they don't signal much it could temporarily disappoint the market.... Down then back-up, but the trend is still up.. Could turn out to be a yawner and we have to wait until the next meeting in Jan. !!!!!


It seemsmight be too much hope for the FED to change the language.It could provide a short term play if the market pulls back to 1250.... As Tom pointedstill a coin toss keeping some powder dry!!!

 

[Birchtree]

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Still, the big risk to me is being out, not being in. Sitting in the choir is like waiting for Godot and waiting for the next huge gadolinium deposit to be found. The commercials are big time short and when the squeezre happens....don't be in front of this train. I'm programmed to buy when my target is reached - no looking back until August '06. That would be a long time to wait for any indepth correction. Look at the pull backs in 2003 - no time to think - just keep running.

 

[robo]

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Birchtree wrote:

Still, the big risk to me is being out, not being in.

I can't disagree with your logic... Performace is the proof!! My Vanguard account is up over 17% YTD a mix of Total Stock Market and Emerging Markets and Pacific... I stayed the course only 2 moves so I had the best performace.....On your advice I added Pacific, A very sweet move!!!!! Tom's buy and hold up 9% YTD, nice return!!!

I should have used the word pullback 3 to 5 percentnot correction,but you are correct I could miss out.... I think the Big money takes profits soon... They can relax for awhile and smoke cigars and buy New Cars with bonus money.... They will run it up some more and leave Joe Six Pack wondering why the market is selling off... However, if you don't sell the trend will be back up.....But I'm never fully invested in equities to conservative...

Good trading!!!

Comments from a Fellow Trader that support your point Birchtree..... Excellent Advice!!!

Rightside, your problem is one that almost every trader worth his or her salt has had to fight.

Top picking has literally cost me millions, nay, TENS of millions in missed opportunties, and hard cash. I'm sure others can say the same.

Here's what I learned and took to heart:

Tops are built. There's no rush in picking them early. Most give you plenty of time to get short when risk is low and the trend has turned. If you want to pick something, pick bottoms--in a Bull market. They tend to be punctuated points.

Don't pick tops. It's too costly monetarily AND emotionally. It just doesn't make sense. You'll be worn out even if you're right, and thus blow out for a small profit or loss and miss the big move. That, in turn, will make you gunshy to take the next trade...which will also cost you. Then you'll turn into Hayrake.

I'm not saying that you can't probe counter trend with tight stops (I did today), but taking POSITIONS when picking a top is near suicide and a pointless one at that

 

[KAPLOWD]

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The fed made a measured rate hike, but changed the language. Here's a link

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10451555/

 

[JOVARN]

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I don’t know how you guys and Gals do this. I work full time. My day starts at 0430 I have coffee and read until 0545 shower and off to work.

Moving the TSP is like another job, I am exhausted sometimes.

I take a breather and move to G just to relax and if I miss a few buck like last week there is always next week

Not sure how much longer I can do this, its fun but tiring

What’s your secrete

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

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JO

study the charts a little in the evening, aftermarket closeand know what you're going to do before noon deadline. when you're right and you make 1.2% in a day, your hooked, orrrrr save your self 1.2% it might be worth the time

 

[robo]

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JOVARN Wrote:

I don’t know how you guys and Gals do this. I work full time

Follow Tom's long term investing account , Skips' account, Spaf account, Mike's account ( Set it and forget it) and the Rock Birchtree!!!!! Take the emotion out of it....


They don't make many moves.....


My Vanguard account has only 2 moves a year!!! Best performing in my portfolio....

But it sure is fun trading... And you are correct sometimes very exhausting and don't forget frustrating, aggravating, etc etc..........:X

 

[robo]

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The fed changed the language, but said the same thing.... Looks like 1 or 2 more andend game.....Market still looks bullish and the trend is up.... It surerallied on the news.... No new longs for me today!!!!