Market Talk / April 23 - 29

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 26, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Data and Earnings sweeten socks!
Other Yak................................Lube keeps slipping down.
Jester Yak...............................[$COMPQ] had a Doji.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1305.41, up +3.67
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.024, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+3.283, flat.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........65.06, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 54.33 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................71.93, dn -0.95
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow

Tin Box:
Position.....................................0% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1306 [broken]. Trail: 1294.

 

[Quips]

I've cut my position in stocks by 15% and completely out of the F Fund; riding with 65-35.
Being more prudent ... I can't see how things will improve with gasoline @ $3 for regular and interest rates going up.
Inflation has got to be a concern with housing starts still strong and unemployment going down.

 

[FundSurfer]

If you have read Tom's comments and think he might be right for seasonality, all the red this morning might be making a good buying opportunity. C and S funds near the bottoms of their respective trading channels while I fund continues to dance at the top.

 

[The_Technician]

If you have read Tom's comments and think he might be right for seasonality, all the red this morning might be making a good buying opportunity. C and S funds near the bottoms of their respective trading channels while I fund continues to dance at the top.

I'm starting to think we are right on the front edge of a downer (I can't believe its a climber)....instability is starting to show up.....:blink: this market has been overdue for two months now.....overdue......

 

[sugarandspice]

When do you take a hard look at your "data" thats telling you one thing but the market is doing the opposite and tell yourself that something might be skewed? Do you ever change your analysis? Or do you hold on to it, keeping it near and dear, parroting the same thing over and over, until eventually, maybe, by some slight chance your outlook comes to fruition and then finally you can say "I KNEW IT".

Making money while waiting for "The Sword of Technicles" to fall.

P.S. If/when it falls I will have made money and will have time to get out.

 

[Wheels]

When do you take a hard look at your "data" thats telling you one thing but the market is doing the opposite and tell yourself that something might be skewed? Do you ever change your analysis? Or do you hold on to it, keeping it near and dear, parroting the same thing over and over, until eventually, maybe, by some slight chance your outlook comes to fruition and then finally you can say "I KNEW IT".

No more calls folks, we have a winner.

Dave
<><

 

[sugarandspice]

Sugar, your crossing a line. Dont get into any discussions about strategy with anyone. Your lack of knowledge does not lend itself for you to make any analysis about anything.

The knowledge you possess gives you the expertise to analyze the rusty yellow stains in your toilet and the creeping mold inside your bathtub. I must say that the moldcicles hanging from your top rack in the fridge are impressive though. It gives the ants quicker access.

 

[mlk_man]

Leave her alone on this one Spice, truer words were never spoken..........

 

[FundSurfer]

P.S. If/when it falls I will have made money and will have time to get out.

WOW! Was it sugar or spice that dished out that nugget of wisdom?

Which gets credit for 6.84% return since beginning of February? ( C- 2.95%, S-4.06%, I-7.79%)

I'm starting to think we are right on the front edge of a downer (I can't believe its a climber)....instability is starting to show up.....:blink: this market has been overdue for two months now.....overdue......

Tech, don't fight the wave man....ride it...

 

[vectorman]

If you have read Tom's comments and think he might be right for seasonality, all the red this morning might be making a good buying opportunity. C and S funds near the bottoms of their respective trading channels while I fund continues to dance at the top.

So far the S fund has been down five days in a row. If by chance it closes today making it six, that doesn't happen very often in an uptrending market. Investing is all about risk vs reward. So what are the odds or risk the S fund will be up tomorrow?

 

[Birchtree]

I've been waiting for money to start shifting out of small cap stocks and their mutual funds now for two years - I think the slow shift by hedge players has begun. I'll take the high steppers for now. It's the value play - get more bang for your bucks.

 

[vectorman]

Sector rotation today, should set up for a big end of month party tomorrow, preparing the trap for next week.:notrust:
" Come on in little investor, the Titanic is about to set sail and ride a little higher up on the wave of worry. "
I will add that I'm on board for a short ride.:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Show me some bull character

With an hour left to trade show me Dow 11,500 and SPX 1320. C'mon bulls you got the dollars show some spunk. Pre-empt the big move today and do it again tomorrow - sweat the shorts until they holler Uncle.

 

[The_Technician]

Divergence between the S&P and the Wilshire is starting to show......accumulation for both funds is still fallen off.......I would assume market is weakening......maybe we have the first wave ......:notrust:

I believe we will be taken a break between next week and next Sept/Oct......maybe wishing you a great summer vacation is in order......:blink:

 

[Pilgrim]

Divergence between the S&P and the Wilshire is starting to show......accumulation for both funds is still fallen off.......I would assume market is weakening......maybe we have the first wave ......:notrust:

I believe we will be taken a break between next week and next Sept/Oct......maybe wishing you a great summer vacation is in order......:blink:

So you gonna just go away?? Even a down trend has oversold times and brief blips up. You gonna play the wiggles?

Besides, taking in everything that has been said on this board, I don't think it will be like that. A correction is so overdue and fundamentals seem to be crying for a drop, so I think a sharp, violent, but brief correction - maybe one bad month - is more likely. After that, a slow recovery into Fall when things really take off. You think maybe??

 

[Birchtree]

Shut out again - will I ever be right? Anyway, I'' be playing all summer long - got lots of dividends that will continue to be invested automatically - can't afford to sell and walk away, just gotta play the hands that are delt. Everyone as a consensus thinks it will be quiet - may just be the opposite and for me I have to be in to win. I'll be waiting on the Chinese money. And I'll continue to buy the C fund regardless of price - when it hits $20.00 that'll be the time to reconsider strategy. The weak dollar is going to hurt earnings of our foreign exporting friends and markedly help the SPX components.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Pilgrim]

Dennis,

How are you shut out again? Aren't you still holding 100% C? If you are you did better than me (all F) today!

 

[Birchtree]

I was cooing for a Dow 11,500 and an SPX of 1320. I never get what I want!! Well almost never - but then there is tomorrow and we did recently tack on a 194 point banger. I just have fond memories of the days when the banger was 400 points. The last time was the July'02 first bottom and they were essentially back to back 400 pointers. Oooh, that was nice.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 27, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Socks get uplift that rate hikes may pause.
Other Yak................................Lube at lowest level in 2 weeks.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1309.72, up +4.31
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.023, flat.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+3.562, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........66.50, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 57.11 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................70.97, dn -0.96
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green

Tin Box:
Position.....................................0% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1306. Trail: 1294.

 

[Quips]

Overseas markets are a little spooked ... consumer confidence AND inflation are both up; word is Euro interest rates will increase 0.75% by the end of the year.

My balance in stocks is 20-20-25.