Market Talk / April 23 - 29

[Wimpy]

FLOTSAM AND JETSAM: DR reader Darren Tulk took our question of what everyday life would be like for an average American in the face of the next Great Depression a few steps further than others. Read on...

A Day in a Life
by DR reader Darren Tulk

The alarm clock stirs us to life once again. As one of the "lucky few" still employed, I must get ready for work.

I make my way downstairs, nodding to the sister-in-law and her husband emerging from another bedroom. Having recently lost their jobs they were in a tight spot after paying out their credit card debts. Younger than us and nice company, we invited them to live with us till they get work. They make a good deterrent to the smash and grab crowd, seeking unoccupied houses to break into. Dodgy pawnbrokers are doing a brisk trade.

Flipping the TV on, I note the talking head discussing the 'core' unemployment rate. Said to be approaching double digits, it pales against bloggers estimates of over 25%.
Breakfast is as usual, while I sort the junk mail from overnight. Garage sales, cheap cars for sale by desperate families, offers to mow lawns, wash cars, trim edges ... all at dirt cheap rates. But our boarders agreed to do household chores as part rental payment for living with us, which is fine by me. It means I have more spare time.

--------------------

For the rest of the story, click the link below and scroll about 55% of the way down the page.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Issues/2006/WEDR042206.html

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 24, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Krude KOed Momentum! Earnings over-shadowed.
Other Yak................................Lube down 2% but still painful.


Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1308.11, dn +3.17
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.018, flat.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+3.686, flat.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........78.95, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 56.81 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................73.33, dn -1.84
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Mixed: Green earnings and red energy.

Tin Box:
Position.....................................0% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1306. Trail: 1294.

 

[Birchtree]

For me an impressive day...

It was good to see a continuation of last weeks Dow Utility moves today - sitting now at 401.44 and only has to reach 437.63 to provide some breathing room. This index usually leads to the upside and along with a new all-time high on the Dow Transports at 4730.47 may mean a brighter future.

After six years, the Dow Industrials still hasn't surpassed its all-time high of 11,722.98 made on January 14, 2000, while the Dow Transports surpassed its all-time high of 3783.50 (made on May 12, 1999) way back in December 2004. This is one of the most flagrant non-confirmations in Dow Theory history. So what does it mean - only that some good things are worth waiting for. Sooner or later, even the Don of Dow Theory, Richard Russell will have to turn bullish - then the wanton money will flow forward. All three of these indexes may end up confirming each other simultaneously - that would create a Birchtree booty shake. And I'll be sure to save some for my Chinese friends. Now where is that Hindenberg Omen?

 

[FundSurfer]

Which index does TSP use to make their decision and how can I monitor it through the day???

I use the following Dollar Index quote. It seems to be updated more than any other I've seen. If anyone has a favorite, I'm always looking for better data.

http://quotes.ino.com:801/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

As to what the TSP uses, the dollar index does not match up exactly with the makeup of the MSCI country percentages, so only and index that matches that percentage would give the right answer, and that does not exist to my knowledge. For a comparison of MSCI percentages to dollar index, see link below:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=38454#post38454

 

[ATCJeff]

Where is everyone?

Jeff

 

[Spaf]

I use the following Dollar Index quote. It seems to be updated more than any other I've seen. If anyone has a favorite, I'm always looking for better data.

http://quotes.ino.com:801/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

http://tinyurl.com/qbn3j

You get to play with the bells and toot the whistle.......:cheesy:

 

[Spaf]

Where is everyone?

Jeff

Stormshelter?...:blink: ....Beware of the Lubnado!

 

[FundSurfer]

You get to play with the bells and toot the whistle.......:cheesy:

Yeah, but you don't get the intra-day update. The one I posted is 15 minute interval.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 25, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Rates and Oil sour socks!
Other Yak................................Next 3 months could be up for grabs.
Jester Yak...............................It's a Lubnado!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1301.74, dn -6.37
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.052, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+3.317, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........70.29, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 51.87 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................72.88, dn -0.45
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Red

Tin Box:
Position.....................................0% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1306 [broken]. Trail: 1294.

 

[James48843]

Dollar off a little against the yen, and also majority of asian and eruopean markets are solidly green this morning.

Sounds like a solid day for the "I" fund is ahead.

Go "I".

 

[The_Technician]

Market reality

Unbelievable.....looking at the charts the risk to the downside is so extreme this thing could drop like a brick to 1240's (S&P) if it wanted to...

Too much risk to make good sense....only thing making it positive about this whole thing is the dollar value....dropping itself....therefore raising the costs of stock.....seems inevitable...:worried:

This high opening makes me nervous......

 

[Pilgrim]

Re: Market reality

Unbelievable.....looking at the charts the risk to the downside is so extreme this thing could drop like a brick to 1240's (S&P) if it wanted to...

Too much risk to make good sense....only thing making it positive about this whole thing is the dollar value....dropping itself....therefore raising the costs of stock.....seems inevitable...:worried:

I'm not usually a big fan of technical analysis, but I would be very interested if you could expand a little on why you see this.

 

[The_Technician]

Re: Market reality

I'm not usually a big fan of technical analysis, but I would be very interested if you could expand a little on why you see this.

The trend analysis says the market is out of its norm behavior....it has climbed extremely high relative to its past behavior traits....the timing issues involved say its due time for a correction..(also accumulation data indicates a failure to climb to new heights of late)...alot of the economic issues say its time....but the investment community ignores the risk it seems to make a buck (they see the handwriting on the wall maybe ).....corporations are making a killing, consumers are losing buying power.....govt says there is little inflation, thats why we all have plenty of buying power....:cheesy:

It all says an implosion is due....:blink:

 

[Master]

Re: Market reality

...
It all says an implosion is due....:blink:

Perhaps, for the US Market, but abroad the fundamentals are sound.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Market reality

This high opening makes ME money!

 

[The_Technician]

Market trading

in the early morning .... at high prices.... indicates trading is selling to late foolish buyers.....doesn't bode well for the near future market...question is, is it trading to late foolish buyers or not.......accumulation would say so.....get yours out in May and comeback in Oct....:blink:

 

[sugarandspice]

Pick your spots.

 

[Dave M]

Put your charts away, Tech. It is all sentiment. Yesterday's good news gradually filters in, and in the absence of bad news buying recommences.

No one can say you're wrong but meanwhile we're having a darn good month.

Dave

 

[James48843]

Ok- so put away all the techincal charts, the math, the calcualtors-

What does your "gut" say?

For me, every day, between 10:30 and 11:30 am, I take a look at the news headlines on yahoo. I take a look at the markets. I take a look at the dollar. And I take a look at the sun outside. And I do a gut check on how the day is looking for the next 24 hours.

If things are good, I stay in stocks. Now I'm in 80% "I", 10% each in "S" and "C". If things are not good, I think about taking some off the table.

I normally don't day trade. I have moved about five time since Jan 1st, and that is much more than the past. In the past I have made moves only about 5 times a year.

And right now, everything is telling me to stay in, cause there is no big reason to jump ship. ALthough the price of oil is still chewing up my toes, I think I'm, going to stay in, as I am, for some time to come.

Stocks perform in the long run. ANd now is the long run.

Bonds not favorable now, nor will they be any time in the forseeable future.

 

[teknobucks]

Where is everyone?

Jeff

http://www.careerbuilder.com/monk-e-mail/?mid=8083910