Market Talk / April 1st - 7th

[SkiUtah]

VIX is running lower, this present run up may not be done for a bit....


11:30 am : The major averages are off their best levels but are holding onto the bulk of their solid gains as nine out of 10 sectors remain positive. Further underscoring the market's upbeat sentiment have been declines of 9% and 8% on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index), respectively.
Known as "investor fear gauges," both indexes spiking lower suggest investors are actively buying call options in anticipation that a short-term bottom has been put in place that will keep investors on the buying track.DJ30 +113.27 NASDAQ +28.97 SP500 +12.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 821/1996/706 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 704/2386/494 mln

 

[robo]

Tuesday, April 03, 2007
Sneaky setup
The market once again decimated both bearish sentiment and short interest as everybody and their brother got convinced that we are headed to fill the crash gap at least.

This is also evident from the options data I am seeing.

But of course the reality is seen from the tape and what I see is telling me that we just bumped against the top of the down channel with everybody and their grannies all bulled up

Click on the following link to see the channel mentioned above (second chart)

Monday, March 26, 2007
The market resembles a classic pattern

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/

 

[SkiUtah]

If the gap is going to be filled, we have what, about .75% more on the upside from this point.

 

[Birchtree]

We'll perhaps see some significant short squeezes on the shorts in the last hour - may give another run of 50 more points. It's Spring and my Gators will be spreading manure around town. We just blew past the fibo level of 12,508. Snort.

 

[gunsmokex]

Damn F fund I just wanted my penny back

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 03, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Homes heat up, Iran cools and lube falls.

Con-Yak...................................Iran is not a resolve!

Jester-Yak................................We needed a rally.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1437.77 +13.22........1423.............1409

Dollar........................................83.18 +0.32 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............64.64 +-1.30 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow / Green.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................4.0 ......0.0 ......1.5 .....0.3 ......4.2
Today........................................6 made IFT(s), 40% bearish, 60% bullish.
Yesterday...................................3 made IFT(s), 76% bearish, 24% bullish.

 

[James48843]

New TSPtalk sentiment survey is up.

Be sure to vote.

tsptalk.com, right side of the page.

 

[mlk_man]

Iran's leader just said he pardoned the soldiers and will set them free. May see some more knee jerk reaction to the upside today.

 

[James48843]

Merrill Lynch says S&P to go to 1590 this year.....

--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch Chief Investment Strategist Richard Bernstein has raised his expected 12-month return on the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index <.SPX> to 12 percent from 8 percent, citing multiple expansions.

"Our target is revised to 1590," Bernstein said in a note dated Tuesday. That would pass the record high of 1552.87 set in March 2000.

"We do expect multiple expansions in 2007, but one should remember that multiple expansion often comes from falling "E" (earnings) as well as rising "P" (price). Thus, the interaction between earnings and interest rates might become quite important," he wrote.


http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070404:MTFH69217_2007-04-04_13-24-31_N04406240&type=comktNews&rpc=44

 

[vectorman]

CNBC talking heads say ISM Survey number lowest in 4 years. Then came the spin... that if fridays 'Average Hourly Earnings' number comes in below consensus...the Feds lowering rates sooner rather than later is back on the table...good for stocks keep buying.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 04, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks up, more a little.

Con-Yak...................................Momentum fading!

Jester-Yak................................Going to clean off the lilly pad!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1439.37 +1.60.........1425.............1411

Dollar........................................82.95 -0.23 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............64.39 -0.26 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................3.0 ......3.9 ......0.5 .....0.6 ......2.1
Today........................................6 made IFT(s), 69% bearish, 31% bullish.
Yesterday...................................6 made IFT(s), 40% bearish, 60% bullish.

 

[weatherweenie]

From the TSP website:

Special Notice for April 6: Because some of the stock and bond markets will be closed Friday, April 6, we will not be updating share prices in any of the TSP funds for that day. Consequently, transactions will not be processed until the following business day (that is Monday, April 9).
​

 

[weatherweenie]

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.2. Early indications still point to a relatively flat start for equities as investors sift through today's only scheduled economic report. Initial claims just checked in, rising 11,000 to 321,000 (consensus 320,000). However, the in-line claims data have had little impact on pre-market trading as participants wait to get a clearer picture of labor conditions from Friday's more closely-watched jobs report given its influence on the market's outlook for the economy and monetary policy.

 

[James48843]

From the TSP website:

Special Notice: We are currently finishing our April 4th processing. As soon as this is completed, we will update the account access portion of the Web site with the April 4th prices and account balances. We anticipate that the update will be completed by 11:00 A.M. eastern time. Share prices have been updated under the Rates of Return option accessible from the Homepage

 

[airlift]

My TSP account balance has not been updated today. Has anyone else had this problem? Thanks in advance.

 

[James48843]

They have changed the message- now it doesn't look like they will have the update done before the cutoff time.

Here is the new message which was just posted (and yes sponsor, mine is not updated either.)


Special Notice: We are currently finishing our April 4th processing. As soon as this is completed, we will update the account access portion of the Web site with the April 4th prices and account balances. We anticipate that the update will be completed by1:00 P.M. eastern time. Share prices have been updated under the Rates of Return option accessible from the Homepage.

 

[Birchtree]

When you have a light volume market it often has a tendency of making important moves while the majority are away. Today is a good example and Monday could be a dramatic rally day. The NYAD continues to make all-time highs. The MCSUM is getting closer to its' line of negative divergence (declining tops line) and will power through it next week or for the bearish case ends up failing for another top beneath a top. IMHO it's a green go and this advance will go higher. Be in to win.

 

[tsptalk]

When you have a light volume market it often has a tendency of making important moves while the majority are away. Today is a good example and Monday could be a dramatic rally day.

Pre-Good Friday - good.
Post Easter Monday - bad.

 

[Birchtree]

The DJUA is now at another new all-time high with a value of 510.81. Look for a large gap expansion upside come Monday. This last hour today should be interesting - I bet you'll see an increasing breadth plurality on the close.

 

[Birchtree]

Tom,

I've seen the graph but the Street is expecting an inline jobs number or one to the weak side anticipating attention from the Fed for a rate reduction in the near future - it's time to help out the country and pass on inflation for awhile.