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Upcoming economic data / events this week:

Tuesday
Consumer Confidence data

Wednesday
New Home Sales data

Thursday
Q1 2024 Final GDP data

Friday
May PCE Inflation data
Fed Monetary Policy Report

This week there are 8 Fed speaker events scheduled.
 
The personal consumption expenditures price index increased just 0.1% for the month and was up 2.6% from a year ago, the latter number down 0.2 percentage point from the April level, according to a Commerce Department report Friday.
Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones estimates. May marked the lowest annual rate since March 2021, which was the first time in this economic cycle that inflation topped the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.



 
U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%

Source: CNBC

Published Thu, Jul 5 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago


The U.S. economy again added slightly more jobs than expected in June though the unemployment rate increased, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 for the month, better than the 200,000 Dow Jones forecast though less than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 in May.

The unemployment unexpectedly climbed to 4.1%, tied for the highest level since October 2021 and providing a conflicting sign for Federal Reserve officials weighing their next move on monetary policy. The forecast had been for the jobless rate to hold steady at 4%.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Read more: Jobs report June 2024:
 
Just an FYI- Hurricane Beryl is now headed for the coast of Texas, including a dead aim at a lot of oil refinery and oil / chemical plants , including the Houston area.


You might want to gas up your car now, and put a can or two into full storage, as a bad hit could interrupt oil and gasoline for a time.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
 
James48843 said:
Just an FYI- Hurricane Beryl is now headed for the coast of Texas, including a dead aim at a lot of oil refinery and oil / chemical plants , including the Houston area.


You might want to gas up your car now, and put a can or two into full storage, as a bad hit could interrupt oil and gasoline for a time.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
Click to expand...

I have 2 offspring in the Houston area, I know this season they've had some pretty good storms with power outages, heck they still haven't cleaned up all the mess from the 2024 Houston derecho.

20240708-22.png
 
The monthly inflation rate dipped in June, providing further cover for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates later this year.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy, declined 0.1% from May, putting the 12-month rate at 3%, around its lowest level in more than three years, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The all-items index rate fell from 3.3% in May, when it was flat on a monthly basis.
 
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 222,000
The DOL reported:
In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 238,000 to 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 233,500, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 238,500 to 238,750.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 233,500.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.
Link

Calculated Risk: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 222,000

Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
 
Goldman issues warning on how quickly market confidence has recovered from an August stocks slump

The speedy return of market confidence following a dramatic global sell-off in risky assets should be seen as a cause for concern, according to the head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday, Goldman’s Christian Mueller-Glissmann said investors could think about the early August stocks slump as something akin to “a warning shot.”

“What’s concerning now is how quickly the market has gone back to where we were before, and we can discuss that, but certainly that shows that we are sadly nearly back to the same problem we were at a month ago,” Mueller-Glissmann said
Click to expand...

Goldman Sachs concerned by how quickly market confidence has recovered
 

U.S. stocks poised for biggest two-day wipeout in history as market loses $9.6 trillion since Inauguration Day​

Source: Marketwatch

U.S. stocks have wiped out roughly $9.6 trillion in value since Jan. 17, the Friday before President Donald Trump took the oath of office and began his second term, according to data from Dow Jones Market Data.

Some $5 trillion of that figure has occurred on Thursday and Friday alone, what would be the largest two-day wipeout of shareholder value on record, Dow Jones data showed.

…snip …

Ahead of the weekend, fears were focused on a trade-war escalation, where “the U.S. doesn’t back down,” said Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital markets, in comments shared with MarketWatch via email. “If we are to punch back, you could have damaging effects to not only the tech sector, but the economy overall. This could throw us into a recession and could end the bull market as we know it.”

Most major U.S. equity indexes haven’t seen such a rough start to a new presidential term since the beginning of George W. Bush’s tenure as president in 2001. Back then, stocks were caught up in a punishing bear market as the dot-com bubble deflated. A bear market is typically defined as a drop of 20% or more from a recent high.

Read more: https://archive.ph/tS9X6
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Well, oil is below $60/barrel. The supporters might be able to get the dollar 99 gas they longed for, along with the mean tweets.
 
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures plunge as Trump tariff rout set to escalate

US stock futures plunged Sunday evening, setting up Wall Street for another bruising day on Monday as markets braced for more fallout from President Trump's fast-moving tariff policy.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) plummeted over 3.5%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NQ=F) lost 4.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) sank 3%, or over 1,000 points. Oil prices also dropped more than 3%, tumbling below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021.

More:
 
Capitulation! Capitulation! :oops:

I don't know if it will be Monday, but it's coming soon. Sunday into Monday gaps can't always be trusted.
 
Cramer calls Black Monday crash today.

Stock futures drop sharply, Jim Cramer warns of new 'Black Monday'​

Source: The Hill

04/06/25 6:36 PM ET


U.S. stock futures dropped sharply on Sunday evening as markets continued to signal a sell-off in the wake of President Trump’s massive reciprocal tariffs on trading partners.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down more than 1,700 points on Sunday evening at 6 p.m., pointing to what could be a disastrous day on Wall Street when markets open Monday morning at 9:30 a.m. The Dow futures had recovered some of those losses later in the evening. After 10 p.m., the futures were down just under 900 points.

The Dow and other markets already suffered through a brutal Thursday and Friday as they took in President Trump’s tariff regime, and the prospect of retaliation from other countries. The Dow lost nearly 4,000 points over those two days. CNBC host Jim Cramer even warned of the possibility that an event similar to “Black Monday” could occur, a reference to the market collapse of 1987, if Trump sticks to his tariff plans. That event saw the Dow drop 22.6 percent in one day.

“If the president doesn’t try to reach out and reward these countries and companies that play by the rules, then the 1987 scenario … the one where we went down three days and then down 22 percent on Monday, has the most cogency,” Cramer said on his show Saturday, per the New York Post.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5235220-us-stocks-tariff-impact/
 
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