Market News

Upcoming economic data / events this week:

Tuesday
Consumer Confidence data

Wednesday
New Home Sales data

Thursday
Q1 2024 Final GDP data

Friday
May PCE Inflation data
Fed Monetary Policy Report

This week there are 8 Fed speaker events scheduled.
 
The personal consumption expenditures price index increased just 0.1% for the month and was up 2.6% from a year ago, the latter number down 0.2 percentage point from the April level, according to a Commerce Department report Friday.
Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones estimates. May marked the lowest annual rate since March 2021, which was the first time in this economic cycle that inflation topped the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.



 
U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%

Source: CNBC

Published Thu, Jul 5 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago


The U.S. economy again added slightly more jobs than expected in June though the unemployment rate increased, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 for the month, better than the 200,000 Dow Jones forecast though less than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 in May.

The unemployment unexpectedly climbed to 4.1%, tied for the highest level since October 2021 and providing a conflicting sign for Federal Reserve officials weighing their next move on monetary policy. The forecast had been for the jobless rate to hold steady at 4%.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Read more: Jobs report June 2024:
 
Just an FYI- Hurricane Beryl is now headed for the coast of Texas, including a dead aim at a lot of oil refinery and oil / chemical plants , including the Houston area.


You might want to gas up your car now, and put a can or two into full storage, as a bad hit could interrupt oil and gasoline for a time.


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Just an FYI- Hurricane Beryl is now headed for the coast of Texas, including a dead aim at a lot of oil refinery and oil / chemical plants , including the Houston area.


You might want to gas up your car now, and put a can or two into full storage, as a bad hit could interrupt oil and gasoline for a time.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

I have 2 offspring in the Houston area, I know this season they've had some pretty good storms with power outages, heck they still haven't cleaned up all the mess from the 2024 Houston derecho.

20240708-22.png
 
The monthly inflation rate dipped in June, providing further cover for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates later this year.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy, declined 0.1% from May, putting the 12-month rate at 3%, around its lowest level in more than three years, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The all-items index rate fell from 3.3% in May, when it was flat on a monthly basis.
 
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 222,000
The DOL reported:
In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 238,000 to 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 233,500, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 238,500 to 238,750.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 233,500.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.
Link

Calculated Risk: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 222,000

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Goldman issues warning on how quickly market confidence has recovered from an August stocks slump

The speedy return of market confidence following a dramatic global sell-off in risky assets should be seen as a cause for concern, according to the head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday, Goldman’s Christian Mueller-Glissmann said investors could think about the early August stocks slump as something akin to “a warning shot.”

“What’s concerning now is how quickly the market has gone back to where we were before, and we can discuss that, but certainly that shows that we are sadly nearly back to the same problem we were at a month ago,” Mueller-Glissmann said

Goldman Sachs concerned by how quickly market confidence has recovered
 
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