Market News

[James48843]

We are nowhere near capitulation. That is another 40 % below where we are now. My 2 cents.

S fund showing down over 5% now.

Approaching some of those breaker levels.

 

[James48843]

And coming to a resistance point on S&P 500. 4800 has some resistance. Will it hold?

 

[weatherweenie]

First-quarter growth sank under a surge of imports as companies in the U.S. rushed to bring in foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them.

The Commerce Department previously estimated that the economy fell 0.2% in the first quarter, but the economy actually shrank at a 0.5% annual pace.

 

[TommyIV]

First-quarter growth sank under a surge of imports as companies in the U.S. rushed to bring in foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them.

As U.S. companies rushed to import foreign goods ahead of potential tariffs, demand for foreign currency spiked — flooding global markets with dollars. This increase in supply put downward pressure on the dollar’s value. Both the dollar and the S&P 500 (C-fund) declined sharply in the first quarter, but only stocks have rebounded in the second. From the perspective of currency markets, this divergence suggests continued economic softness may show up in second-quarter growth data. Stock investors, however, appear unfazed.


YTD 2025: Dollar vs. S&P 500 (C-fund)

 

[weatherweenie]

U.S. payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, more than expected​

Published Thu, Jul 3 20258:30 AM EDT

Jeff Cox@jeff.cox.7528@JeffCoxCNBCcom
WATCH LIVE
Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase 110,000 in June, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

 

[James48843]

So- now what?

Thursday’s trading day was closed by the time that final vote was taken. Jobs report was pretty mild- not far off expectations or revisions. So- what happens next?

I think the markets will be in a positive mood- Crystal ball is saying maybe another 3-5% up over the next week or so. Or maybe not. The greed factor is still strong- will demand for stocks run out soon?

Today’s Fear And Greed Index popped up to 78.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed?

 

[tsptalk]

That is a pretty big jump in the Fear / Greed Index. I didn't see if that move came during market hours or after the bill passed.

 

[weatherweenie]

So- now what?

Thursday’s trading day was closed by the time that final vote was taken. Jobs report was pretty mild- not far off expectations or revisions. So- what happens next?

I think the markets will be in a positive mood- Crystal ball is saying maybe another 3-5% up over the next week or so. Or maybe not. The greed factor is still strong- will demand for stocks run out soon?

Today’s Fear And Greed Index popped up to 78.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed?

I wouldn't be surprised if we sell the news, based solely on the strength of the move up. The market is due for a breather.

 

[tsptalk]

very possible. The market's focus will be the tariff deadline this week. It could go either way but there almost certainly will be some head's bumping perhaps market moving fueling headlines.

Seasonality chart still favors the bulls.

 

[weatherweenie]

BREAKING NEWS


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Economy
U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July and numbers for prior months were revised much lower
Published Fri, Aug 1 20258:30 AM EDTUpdated 2 Min Ago

Jeff Cox
@jeff.cox.7528
@JeffCoxCNBCcom
WATCH LIVE
Nonfarm payroll growth was lower than expected in July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, raising potential trouble signs for the U.S. labor market.

Job growth totaled 73,000 for the month, above the June total of 14,000 but below even the meager Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 100,000. June and May totals were revised sharply lower, down by a combined 258,000 from previously announced levels.


At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, in line with the forecast.

The June total came down from the previously stated 147,000, while the May count fell to just 19,000, revised down by 125,000.

 

[tsptalk]

US Equities Surge After Bessent, Greer Suggest Hope For De-Escalation With China

"I believe China is open to discussion, and I am optimistic that this can be de-escalated ultimately.

We are confident in the strong relationship between President Trump and President Xi.

We've had substantial communication with the Chinese over the past few days, and we believe that there will be more forthcoming this week," Bessent said.

US Equities Surge After Bessent, Greer Suggest Hope For De-Escalation With China | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[James48843]

What is this? I just caught this in another feed. Anybody know? The Fed injecting money?

Here is what I just saw:

Why has Fed quietly dumped $29.4 billion into ???​

Federal Reserve liquidity injection has stunned markets. The Fed quietly pumped $29.4 billion into the U.S. banking system through overnight repurchase agreements (repos) on October 31, 2025, marking its largest liquidity boost in more than five years. Official FRED data confirms it. The operation, listed as RPONTSYD, shows the central bank is moving fast to ease tightening funding conditions. It’s the first maj ..


Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

I just read this commentary:

It basically means the fed had to step in and save banks that didnt have sufficient reserves, kind of a quiet bailout


Go to this link, there are several opinions

https://www.reddit.com/r/EconomyCharts/comments/1om2r22/fed_reserve_just_put_294_billion_into_the_us

 

[tsptalk]

Quantitative tightening is over. It's been expected.

Talked about it on Friday: https://forum.tsptalk.com/threads/a...points-but-here-comes-apple-and-amazon.49956/

 

[tsptalk]

What is this? I just caught this in another feed. Anybody know? The Fed injecting money?

Why has Fed quietly dumped $29.4 billion into ???​

Tom Lee was asked about this. Time stamped to start at that question...

 

[nasa1974]

Tom Lee was asked about this. Time stamped to start at that question...

Interesting.

 

[tsptalk]

Why has Fed quietly dumped $29.4 billion into ???​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1985720689601511680