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[James48843]

We are nowhere near capitulation. That is another 40 % below where we are now. My 2 cents.

S fund showing down over 5% now.

Approaching some of those breaker levels.

 

[James48843]

And coming to a resistance point on S&P 500. 4800 has some resistance. Will it hold?

 

[weatherweenie]

First-quarter growth sank under a surge of imports as companies in the U.S. rushed to bring in foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them.

The Commerce Department previously estimated that the economy fell 0.2% in the first quarter, but the economy actually shrank at a 0.5% annual pace.

 

[TommyIV]

First-quarter growth sank under a surge of imports as companies in the U.S. rushed to bring in foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them.

As U.S. companies rushed to import foreign goods ahead of potential tariffs, demand for foreign currency spiked — flooding global markets with dollars. This increase in supply put downward pressure on the dollar’s value. Both the dollar and the S&P 500 (C-fund) declined sharply in the first quarter, but only stocks have rebounded in the second. From the perspective of currency markets, this divergence suggests continued economic softness may show up in second-quarter growth data. Stock investors, however, appear unfazed.


YTD 2025: Dollar vs. S&P 500 (C-fund)

 

[weatherweenie]

U.S. payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, more than expected​

Published Thu, Jul 3 20258:30 AM EDT

Jeff Cox@jeff.cox.7528@JeffCoxCNBCcom
WATCH LIVE
Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase 110,000 in June, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

 

[James48843]

So- now what?

Thursday’s trading day was closed by the time that final vote was taken. Jobs report was pretty mild- not far off expectations or revisions. So- what happens next?

I think the markets will be in a positive mood- Crystal ball is saying maybe another 3-5% up over the next week or so. Or maybe not. The greed factor is still strong- will demand for stocks run out soon?

Today’s Fear And Greed Index popped up to 78.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed?

 

[tsptalk]

That is a pretty big jump in the Fear / Greed Index. I didn't see if that move came during market hours or after the bill passed.

 

[weatherweenie]

So- now what?

Thursday’s trading day was closed by the time that final vote was taken. Jobs report was pretty mild- not far off expectations or revisions. So- what happens next?

I think the markets will be in a positive mood- Crystal ball is saying maybe another 3-5% up over the next week or so. Or maybe not. The greed factor is still strong- will demand for stocks run out soon?

Today’s Fear And Greed Index popped up to 78.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed?

I wouldn't be surprised if we sell the news, based solely on the strength of the move up. The market is due for a breather.

 

[tsptalk]

very possible. The market's focus will be the tariff deadline this week. It could go either way but there almost certainly will be some head's bumping perhaps market moving fueling headlines.

Seasonality chart still favors the bulls.

 

[weatherweenie]

BREAKING NEWS


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Economy
U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July and numbers for prior months were revised much lower
Published Fri, Aug 1 20258:30 AM EDTUpdated 2 Min Ago

Jeff Cox
@jeff.cox.7528
@JeffCoxCNBCcom
WATCH LIVE
Nonfarm payroll growth was lower than expected in July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, raising potential trouble signs for the U.S. labor market.

Job growth totaled 73,000 for the month, above the June total of 14,000 but below even the meager Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 100,000. June and May totals were revised sharply lower, down by a combined 258,000 from previously announced levels.


At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, in line with the forecast.

The June total came down from the previously stated 147,000, while the May count fell to just 19,000, revised down by 125,000.