Market News

[weatherweenie]

First-Time Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rose to 366,000 vs. 365,000 Consensus

 

[weatherweenie]

Groundbreaking on new homes unexpectedly fell in July and gains from the prior month were revised lower

 

[Birchtree]

Don 't forget permits were up 6.8%.

 

[Birchtree]

August Philly Fed index negative for fourth month - yes it looks like QE3 is back on the table.

 

[weatherweenie]

Consumer sentiment ticked up slightly in August to 73.6, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan survey. The reading topped expectations for 72.4, according to a Reuters poll.

 

[weatherweenie]

Weekly Jobless Claims Rise 4,000 to 372,000 vs. Est. of 366,000; Continuing Claims Up 4,000 to 3,317,000*

 

[weatherweenie]

New orders for long-lasting goods surged, but a second straight month of declines in business spending pointed to slowing factory growth.

 

[weatherweenie]

T he U.S. economy fared slightly better than initially thought in the second quarter, expanding at a 1.7-percent annual rate, according to the Commerce Department. Still, the growth rate remained too slow to shut the door on further monetary easing from the Fed, keeping futures slightly higher.

 

[weatherweenie]

P roductivity increased at a 2.2 percent annual rate rather than 1.6 percent, the Labor Department said. Productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, fell at a 0.5 percent rate in the first three months of 2012.

 

[weatherweenie]

ECB Plan Said to Pledge Unlimited, Sterilized Bond-Buying

 

[nnuut]

ECB Plan Said to Pledge Unlimited, Sterilized Bond-Buying

Sterilized Bond-Buying? I just had to look that one up, just sounds so CLEAN!:laugh:

ECB Plan Said to Pledge Unlimited, Sterilized Bond-Buying - Bloomberg

 

[weatherweenie]

ew Jobs at 96,000, Missing Expectations; Rate Hits 8.1%

 

[nnuut]

Roubini: If Jobs Number Is Weak, QE3 on Its Way

By Catherine Boyle | CNBC – 2 hours 51 minutes ago
Roubini: If Jobs Number Is Weak, QE3 on Its Way - Yahoo! Finance

 

[Warrenlm]

Explaining The Market's Brand New 15x Forward Multiple | ZeroHedge

Chart shows percent of countries monitored being in contraction and now at a high. Implies market multiple is too high.

 

[Sensei]

Wall Street Week Ahead: A nice rally while it lasted - Yahoo! Finance
Wall Street Week Ahead: A nice rally while it lasted

Since this guy already knows what's going to happen next week, he could have at least had the decency to float this article before the IFT deadline. :notrust:

 

[Warrenlm]

Mauldin's current newsletter contains some graphs on declining participation in the workforce and also on disability growth. And a detailed analysis. The graphs are longterm, so historical perspective from the 50s (1950s) is clear. If we are settling into a new normal of unemployment/stopped looking and easier standards for not wanting/able to work, both of which involve transfer payments through the myriad of federal programs administered by states, that must portend some impact on our economy for wage growth and standard of living. It sure looks like we'd need a new public works project ala 1941 to reverse the trends as they are clearly more than transitory. Corporations' executives and boards must be looking at this type information and taking long term actions. Would those enhance the C Fund over the S Fund despite all the political hope and change and job creation rhetoric?

 

[Frixxxx]

UnitedHealth to replace Kraft in Dow 30

Associated Press - 9/14/2012

NEW YORK (AP) -- UnitedHealth Group, the health insurance company, will replace Kraft Foods in the Dow Jones industrial average, the most widely known barometer of the American stock market. S&P Dow Jones Indices, which manages the Dow, said Friday that the change will take effect at the start of trading Sept. 24. It said the change reflected the growing importance of health care spending in the U.S. economy.

Story

 

[Warrenlm]

Consumer sentiment 79.2. We are on our way.

 

[Birchtree]

Why would anyone want to get out of this market?

 

[Warrenlm]

Catchy headline for this story.

“Respectfor the Aged Day.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-09-17/japan%E2%80%99s-slow-motion-tsunami

These demographic trends are on collision course with a peerless debt nightmare. By March 2013, the end of the current fiscal year, gross national debt will surpass one quadrillion yen, or $14 trillion, a mind-boggling 240% of GDP. Of its current outlays, 56% have to be borrowed. Budget cuts? Nope. The budget increased. Largest item: Social Security, at 29%.
Sole heroic effort to address the problem? The unpopular consumption tax increase from the current 5% to 8% by April 2014 and to 10% by October 2015. Alas, it’s a joke; it won’t kick in unless GDP grows at least 2% per year—and that has, given the current economic malaise and declining population, practically no chance of happening.
So why does the government run up these gigantic deficits to subsidize Japan, Inc. and to fund the welfare state, boondoggles, bridges to nowhere, and worthwhile infrastructure projects? Because it can.
Borrowing at near zero cost has been its hallmark for years. Due to Japan’s institutional setup and cohesive insular psychology, the government has been able to sell 95% of its debt within Japan. Individuals directly or indirectly hold over 50%. Government-owned or controlled institutions hold over 40%. Among them: the Government Pension Investment Fund, one of the largest pension funds in the world; the government-owned Post Bank, the largest deposit holder in the world; and financial institutions the government can lean on. Then there is the busy Bank of Japan. Foreigners hold only 5%, for decorative purposes. This system hermetically protects the government from any discipline that credit markets could otherwise impose.

We're in better shape than 240%. But we need to replace foreign holdings by debt held by citizens. Time to rectify that with requiring 401ks to be in Treasuries. At modest rates.