LTJPFED's Account Talk

[LTJPFED]

Well I was partially right. I didn't want it to happen, my hope was we would bounce off that mid point of Fridays move. We didn't bounce. As I said earlier today if we didn't bounce off that mid we would get a bigger selloff, well we went right through it and if you didn't catch it, Fridays open 3821.75, todays close 3821.55. Yeah lost all of Friday's gain. I think those who stepped aside prior to today was a good move because I can see us moving lower before we bounce. Hindsight yesterday was the sell day for me but obviously did not happen.

So now my thinking is we continue down to close that lower gap, at least that is my hope. Then perhaps we push lower to retest lows? Not sure. But eventually I do think we move higher. I'm not saying it will be "THE LOW", but if a retest happens and we bounce perhaps that will be the low water mark for a while. That is anyone's guess.

I'm going to look at some of the charts but I think there may be some inverted head and shoulders out there so maybe we can flip the script soon enough. There was a rounded bottom on the S&P last week that formed and that is another reason I thought we would see a slingshot higher but Friday must have been it. Thought we would see a much higher move to be honest.

Early July looks seasonally positive. Not sure what will happen but could we see a fill of the lower gap, sideway consolidation and then the first couple weeks of July moving back up to perhaps the 4100 level? Too much going on to easily predict yet alone accurately state what will happen. VIX was up but not tremendously vs the selloff. HYG did close below 74, bear flag breakdown initiated? I'd consider a move to the F fund but would like to see it drop down to the lower part of the current downtrend channel. Not sure that will happen before month end. Heard some say we could head back to 3.5 on the 10year. So we could see it drop a bit more I suppose.

Tomorrow is a new day and we only have a couple days remaining before we get new moves and a new month. Perhaps its ok to just sit on your hands and let things settle back down again but I'll keep a watchful eye to the action heading into July ready to make a move if needed.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I tend to think we could get a little rally after Congress goes on vacation (end of this week?) but then get another drop during earnings season (starts mid July) and maybe until Fed meets again in late July. But then again, who knows. Best wishes to you LTJPFED! :smile:

 

[LTJPFED]

Not sure DBA. You may be right but I don't trust this market. There is absolutely nothing to be bullish about at this point. Unless you consider bullishness on a bear market rally. I have had my hopes and did have a couple moments of gains but those have been dashed. Valuable lesson learned, transfer funds to G when going out of town during a bear market.

With today, starting out at least, with a big down day, I'm really not sure what I want to do. Keeping an open mind about a move today. It is the last day of the month and I would just be moving to G. The early part of the month could turn around but why? Just for a quick bounce? The markets are looking ahead and perhaps between the lack of earnings and what the Fed may do, not to mention all the inflationary and recession discussions, geopolitical aspects here and abroad, the housing market, there is still lots of negativity out there. Maybe the markets over play to the downside but I think that is the direction we go and if there are any silver linings maybe we get a bounce next week or even into earnings but probably before the FOMC decision. I am not envisioning a bounce when that rate decision comes out. Don't we already have a good idea it could be another 75? I honestly have no idea. But the markets are thinking ahead. Maybe a bit too early but today definitely could be the precursor to what July might look like. Perhaps July turns out to be our month of either a rebound, not saying a bottom, or we continue to fade further down for all those things we know are hanging over us. Lots to think about.

I wish everyone the best! Hang in there! I'm normally an optimistic guy but man it has been looking rough this year. Where is that emotion chart again, I'm thinking some are leaning into that depression mode.
Have a good day all

 

[WorkFE]

Where is that emotion chart again, I'm thinking some are leaning into that depression mode.

That depends on your current position
G Fund- Optimism, G Fund Rate might go up next week, making lemonade with lemons.
C or I fund- Denial, waiting on a bounce, gotta be quick.
S Fund- Most likely found the bridge you're going to use or sell at all time lows, maybe both.

 

[LTJPFED]

Missed being able to lighten up today, too many meetings. Anyway hope this little rally continues tomorrow. I'll probably lighten up tomorrow if so. Just still not finding the bullish catalyst to say this train keeps on chugging higher. Every day we continue to move higher I feel like we are just that much closer to the next big drop. Perhaps it will be some of the data this month that pushes the market back down or maybe the FED will be the reason. Just saying there are more reasons why this keeps heading south versus the reasons why we continue to climb the wall of worry. Of course the markets will do what it wants, with more people saying perhaps the bottom is in and more people jumping in due to FOMO and seasonality, the market may say not so fast and continue to head down to new lows in the coming weeks/months.

I'll continue to try and get in and out with shorter stays in C/S going forward until this trend breaks and we break through some resistance levels. Some of the charts still look rough so I'm not getting too excited about the last few days of gains. If I read some of them correctly I think we are just simply trading back up in the channels, although a few of them we sit smack dab in the mid, so we could break either way. Definitely challenging times to trade.

Best wishes all!

 

[LTJPFED]

Able to make the move today however I'm going 100% into G. With the gain I've had this month I feel fortunate I didn't lose my back so I'll take the small gain and be content for now. Obviously so early in the month so anything can happen and I still have a 2nd move if I want to dip my toes or jump back in later in the month.

So with the 1st move of July for me I'm going back to G-100.

Best wishes all!

 

[LTJPFED]

Morning all,

Don't worry, it's all rainbows and unicorns. Fund managers pushed this up since the 18th into the Fed decision, yesterday was the icing on the cake for them. Now, what has been happening are pullbacks after Fed Day, at least the last couple times, we probably will see a day, maybe several down days before things continue higher or at the very least additional consolidations.

If anyone has anything to say feel free to post in my thread. I don't claim to be educated in all this stuff but have done some small readings and research over the last couple weeks to be able to at least make a few comments. So if you differ in opinions or views or obviously more educated than I am please feel free to make comments. I don't mind learning! So with what follows is just my opinion.

I'll still going try to bounce in and out of C/S making a little here and there but for me this is not the time to get in and just think its going to keep going up. UNLESS the markets think the Feds have it right and several rate hikes is all it would take to bring the inflated market prices down and "tame" inflation. That is what has been happening all year so maybe they did get it right. Equity prices did pull back so maybe they achieved half the goal. At least in the short term, maybe even for the rest of this year into 2023. I don't think the inflation part has been solved however. Just my opinion though. Maybe it will soon enough and maybe that is what the Fed and the markets are banking on. Perhaps over the next couple quarters things change.

Like I said I'll try to look for entries and dodge the bullets. I still think it is a time to make shorter stays in the C/S funds. So I don't think we go to the moon and retest highs. We are still in a bear market after all. Maybe we are half way there. Who knows. Bear Markets can last a while or they could be of shorter term. I could see us doing this little dance over the next couple of quarters before a much bigger push higher into Q3 of 2023. Then again look at 2020, markets climbed the wall of worry when some, including myself, thought there was no way we would keep going, but we did. I will remember the time the Fed put so much money into the markets it had no where to go but up. I won't forget that for sure.

I just don't think there is much to get excited about right now market wise. Even in our real world experiences I see people transitioning, downsizing, changing jobs, losing jobs, people struggling to pay for things. My wife and I have given groceries to a couple needy families recently. Found out they were going to the food bank. They didn't want to tell anyone. Come on. Not everyone is doing well so we help where we can. Not looking for a pat on the back just saying. Where have prices come down other than equity prices? Groceries are still more, gas more, homes and cars? I haven't seen prices come down all that much. Maybe here and there in certain parts of the country. I don't know. Again I know people already struggling to pay for things, basic things. So what's going to happen when prices don't come down right away? Continued hikes of course. Maybe some companies even feel the need to keep raising prices because people are afraid they are not going to get those things any cheaper. Whatever those things may be. The demand aspect will maybe still be there. So more rate hikes.

So I'm probably wrong again in my view but I struggle to see where we are in the all clear now. I've said that to myself every rate hike this year. Yesterday seemed a bit too dovish for me. Maybe it's just me. I don't know. I have not had a chance to listen to anything this morning or read any of my normal articles. Late start for me. Just now having a 2nd cup of coffee lol. UGH, going to be a long day.

I get the purpose of raising rates, tame inflation, bring prices down, less demand due to those inflated prices and maybe it all does become a soft landing. In a perfect world maybe. But is it that simple? What about the talk of recession? Where are we in that? I mean that is the flip side to all this. I would think with all the inflation, previous high equity prices, still continued demand for most things including housing and autos, and several rate hikes we are heading in that direction. I still think we are. Maybe not as bad as some think, maybe I'm in the mid of the road with it. I could see with all the hikes, and I do believe the Fed has been in a tough spot, that earnings will continue to be a struggle for some companies, less demand, SHOULD drop prices, lower consumer spending of course, maybe even sentiment drops a lot more, so all that equals falling asset prices, maybe home prices come back down, auto prices, groceries maybe drop again, then all of that leads to rising layoffs, unemployment, maybe even additional defaults on loans like mortgages.

Isn't that a recession? Then what? Falling interest rates? Perhaps that is what will drive us back up eventually to new highs in the markets. But that is a lot to get through. Maybe I'm overthinking all this but I just think that means we are not in the all clear yet. By the way, toss in potential changes in the political world, additional geopolitical influences and changes in global changes such as wars and energy issues, there are lot of external factors that could influence price as well is all I'm trying to say I guess.

Like I said feel free to respond but I'm no expert. Not an economist. Just feeling like I needed to post something in my thread to reflect where we are here in July 2022. I'm not looking to call a bottom or a top. I'm just trying to not lose the money I have saved. I want to make the best choices, not just in my TSP but overall in my finances to help not just short term but when the time comes for retirement. Hopefully when the smoke clears and we are up above 5k, 6k, etc., on the S&P and all the markets are firing on all cylinders we can look back and say remember when, look how far we have come, and let's not make the same mistakes we did back when. I think our economy at least has tried to not make some of those mistakes from previous decades. But then again, sometimes those mistakes can come back again and remind us of how we got where we are.

I wish everyone the best! I just hope we all can get through the tough times and maybe still make a little money to help down the road. So in my opinion we are not even close to being in the all clear. But we can still try to be savvy with our TSP choices.

 

[LTJPFED]

After reading a few articles and listening to a few people today I think I miss-spoke. I felt like the Fed was a bit dovish yesterday but going back no real change in view, not necessarily ruling out we have seen inflation under control. I think Tom pointed this out today as well in his article so a few others have noted it really wasn't really a pivot from what they have been saying. Just taking it meeting by meeting. Maybe I was just reading too much into it, although it did not help the markets seemed to react as if it was also a more dovish outlook.

Add in the GDP number today and it definitely feels like we are starting to see that slowing in the economy. Perhaps what they are doing is having it's intended purpose. But I still am struggling to see the bigger picture. Maybe once we get into the recession we will see the other side of this. Right now it still feels like we are hot with prices, at least prices of goods and services being up and not really coming down like equity prices are in the markets. It still feels inflationary another words. I can't see the forest for the trees type of view.

So I guess we wait, perhaps it takes a couple/few more quarters for this to shake out and the recession is in full swing. Only when prices come down, maybe we start seeing companies cutting costs a bit more as the year goes on, lower earnings, higher unemployment, default on loans, etc. Maybe then we will see the rate increases being halted and/or dropping. Timing is important I suppose for all these bigger decisions that the Fed has to make. Would not want that job for sure. Best case is a soft landing. That is what they were going for anyway. Not sure what the worse case scenario would look like. Maybe extended recession into the end of 2023/beginning of 2024? Of course the Fed could come to the rescue again and lower rates, which in turn would increase the markets. Shrug

So still on the sidelines today. Ran out of popcorn after yesterday so I'll be getting more for the remaining part of the year LOL. opcorn:

 

[tsptalk]

The tough part is that the market can look out 6 months or more and react before we see any evidence of economic changes. The inflation was obvious to most with gas and food prices, but the market seemed to start reacting to the potential recession 7 months ago. The question is, what is it seeing 7 months from today? Do they see a Fed that went too far with rates and potentially a need to cut quickly to save the economy from a disaster? The market could rally this summer on something like that, while we don't see any of it.

So, trust the market action. Easier said than done because we know there are traps with bear market rallies.

I'll stick to my guess, just based on history and not any economic knowledge, that markets don't tend to bottom in the middle of the summer. I can imagine an August or September new low with a rally into or after the mid-term elections.

 

[LTJPFED]

So maybe the markets, being forward looking, dropped on inflation and higher costs over the last 7 months, but toss in the recession fears, not necessarily come to fruition? If it would think that a bigger recession is likely then we would see more drastic moves lower perhaps. Like you said the question becomes where are we 6,7,8 months from now. Markets following through today perhaps is saying the Fed is at least on point with the hikes, recession may end up being soft, earnings might be lighter but perhaps we don't see layoffs and the uglier side of recessions. Not trying to explain 2 days of trading but my brain is becoming mush through all this trying to grasp the higher moves. Maybe it is another bear market rally and we see more drops in August/September.

Will be interesting to see for sure if we can push back down to retest prior lows, as much as people don't want to see the markets lower, I like to see them at least to feel better about the moves back up. Gives me more confidence that the markets will continue to move higher in the long term and not have the rug pulled out from under you. I would have rather had seen a few more days of consolidation as opposed to another all out rally day, has that feeling anyway at this point. But we know the last hour of trading can always turn on a dime. I'll trust the action a bit more maybe next week. I think they have pushed this up since maybe the 17th/18th and feels long in the tooth lol. Can't believe I said that. But the good thing is we are above the 18, the 50 and upper BB's. Maybe we can reach the 100, I don't know. I am not even sure I'd trust that move to be honest. Again in a bear market. I keep reminding myself of this so that is my trepidation. Oh my big word of the day!

I'm rambling but I appreciate the feedback. I do agree we should trust the market action, even though it is tough to do sometimes. Who knows maybe I'll dip my toes in next week depending on where we are in this rally. Just wasn't feeling it today.

 

[LTJPFED]

Paraphrasing what Tom said in article today but wanted to put it in my thread as a reminder. I like those lol

Expect the unexpected!
:bad:

 

[LTJPFED]

Really thought about a move a bit more today but could not pull the trigger. Lots of things running through my mind last few weeks, watching charts and key support and resistance levels. Both sides have solid points on the direction of the markets and I can find support with them. Not enough though to jump in when the market was running up in July and not enough to jump in on these more recent declines. Kudos to those who made money in the last couple months. I have been pretty stubborn lately. Probably to fault and missed a couple chances.

I don't know if we head down and retest but sure feels like the markets want to. I think a lot of what has happened since that wonderful 1000 point drop has been more on the algos side of things. Not saying it's all algos but I think with light volumes and interesting where the markets found support and bounced and where it found resistance and sold back down. Here we are. Still September and anything can happen. I believe coming into one of the worst weeks for the markets historically and we have the Fed next week. So your guess is probably better than mine. But I do think a bigger move will be happening over the next week to month. Oversold at the moment but things can run further in either direction a lot longer than we think. So that said my guess is we head a bit further down. I'm still trying to figure out where. I am guessing here but if we break through the June lows I think we could head down to the 3200-3300 levels before finding a bit of support. If we bounce or come close enough to those June lows I think we are done for a bit. Meaning we could see more range bound action perhaps we bounce back up into the 4100 level. Maybe trade in that range for another month or two even. I am not going to say we go much further than 4200 simply because there isn't a lot to get excited about. More companies are speaking out about issues and I do not want to get in front of that.

You have to keep an eye on yields, the dollar, energy, global economics and geopolitical issues, earning or lack of will come into play as well. Fed rate hikes and continued, nothing new, Government spending. There is no easy resolution here. Maybe the Fed get's the thread through the eye of the needle and we have a soft landing. But imho things are not looking like that at this time, probably too early to realistically make that call. I hope I'm wrong and it can be done. Maybe those who are saying the Fed may over step and continue to pedal down too long will end up being correct. IDK. Wish someone had a crystal ball and we knew but we do not(as much as some of us like to pretend lol). And I will also add in not only does our government continue to spend, nothing different, but companies continue to keep prices higher, continue to put money in employees pockets with raises(can be looked at as inflationary), sure sounds good but if the goal is to curb inflation and bring the economy down it is a battle that I'm not sure can be done in a 6 month period. We may be still fighting this battle next year at this time.

Saying all that I think we may be closer to a true bottom than we may think. I do think a recession is in store. So maybe we get this bottom over the next 3-4 months. Markets are forward looking but if it is unclear the markets probably aren't sure where we end up yet. Give things two or three quarters and I think we find out.

In the meantime maybe the answer is to try and do some hit and run. Finding those moments throughout the month, since we are limited with moves, to buy in and then sell before then next run down. Yes we have been in this mode really since the beginning of the year. So that is what I will try to do, just need to not be hitting or running at the wrong times.

 

[LTJPFED]

Talk about last minute...decided to dip my toes. I know I know. The last time I did a move before either Fed decision or big report I had to wait until the retrace before taking gains. I'm just hoping if we do trade away tomorrow that it isn't a huge drop and doesn't last but a few more days. I could be wrong but thinking we see more of a bounce over the next few days. I know September can be deadly and we still have time to run further down but I'm really stepping out here to try and catch a bounce. Some of the charts seem to be holding up so that is one of my reasonings for this move. Been looking more at fundamentals and technical aspects so far this year. Even though in a bear market we still need to look at those things. I think a bigger move is coming one way or another.

 

[LTJPFED]

So just an update...
Went into TSP and noticed my allocation was not what I thought I put through. Instead of 50 G 25 C and 25 S it is reflecting 75 G 12 C and 13 S. Good for me I suppose in I didn't lose as much as I thought yesterday but bad in that if the markets take to the upside tomorrow I am not getting as much as I thought. Also my autotracker is off so there is that issue lol. I tell you guys we need to double and triple check TSP when we do our transactions. It is crazy.

Maybe I will be able to add more tomorrow if we get a further decline into the close today and we'll see what the morning looks like tomorrow.

Best wishes all!

 

[tsptalk]

That's scary. 50, 25, 25 isn't really close to 75, 12, 13, so what the heck is going on? Thanks for the head's up.

 

[LTJPFED]

Yes I agree. I was totally shocked when I logged in today. Been such a crazy week. I should have logged in yesterday. I'm frustrated to say the least but I'm not going to lose sleep over it. Just when you expect to see one thing and it's no where close to what you thought you had done it is crazy.

Going to be double and triple checking things now.

 

[LTJPFED]

Lots of things not looking good right now....perhaps my move was hasty in thinking we were due for a bounce. I missed a couple things and wanted to overlook a few others, to the point of actually dipping my toes into C & S. I didn't do any measuring or looking at the days but this fall from the recent highs feels like it has come down faster than the move up from the June lows. I know markets can move quick though. I'm still hoping for a bounce here soon. But I suppose we could run down and hit a new low before that happens.

Not sure what to think of the VIX other than it has inverted H&S, perhaps 2 depending on how you look at it. I know, like others, have been scratching their heads as to why the VIX hasn't moved much higher since the markets have been coming down. IDK the answer. But makes me nervous. If I'm guessing here, which I am, we probably could see something propel the VIX up into the 37+ level. Perhaps that is the panic selling we will get, if it happens.

As Tom pointed out the other day, take a look at the DOW Transports. Multiple H&S within one another. That looks pretty ominous in itself and maybe that is what will be leading us further down. Especially since we know FEDEX has had bad news already and I'm sure more companies will come. Maybe it is a domino affect that happens from companies bad earnings, outlooks, layoffs, whatever you want to say, perhaps that is what will drive everything lower. The rails got their deal so employees will be making, I think, 24% wage increase! If I got a 24% raise I'd feel like I won the lottery. Ok maybe not that exciting but still that is a lot of money. Inflationary? Yeah I think so. Yes this is old news for some of you but things to consider. Transportation companies will be increasing costs to pay for bigger salaries, earning misses, increased costs to ship things, etc. It is going to happen. Maybe this is the big spot where the markets wake up, or maybe they already have. I haven't heard much about this topic, although someone brought it up briefly last week when FEDEX came out with their bad news. So who knows.

Come to find out I didn't add as much to C & S as I had thought so not getting hit too hard but still a loss is a loss, especially if you sell lower. So close to the end of the month here I'm not sure what I'm doing today. I had thought about making my 2nd move by adding more to equities but this run down is getting me nervous. Yes I though we would retest the lows but I think there is a chance we go beyond that. Maybe it's too early for the sky to be falling here but at some point we will get the panic selling, and not just algos, the markets will tumble and people will be saying I don't want to be near the markets. We aren't there yet. Maybe today or Monday we get a taste of it but I think it's still too early. Global markets and currencies continue to take hits. Maybe once the global recession story comes to fruition then not just US markets but global markets all panic sell and that is where we get our low.

Bottom line this morning, markets look bad before open, I still am not sure what I am doing(any day of the week lol) today or the rest of September. Just saw crude falls below 80, maybe that will give us a bounce? Sorry to interject that here. So let's see how the morning rolls on. Let's see what the dollar, oil, VIX, treasuries, etc, look like by mid morning, maybe I will add instead of getting out and patiently waiting for October......then again maybe I will just sit on my hands.

 

[LTJPFED]

Sat on hands today. Could run down into the close putting in new low. Sounds good on paper but we could bleed out more next week. I still have a small amount on the table at this point but that's all I will have for now. Still have a few days next week to add or bail with another move if I wanted to depending on situation. Lot's can happen over a weekend. Lot's in the news. Lot's of negativity out there and nothing good.

Best wishes all!

 

[joblin20]

Kind of rhetorical question, how bad can things really get?

 

[LTJPFED]

Kind of rhetorical question, how bad can things really get?

Yeah but great question. And my answer would be who knows. Seriously I am not even sure the markets know where we are in this process. You have some people thinking the sky is falling and we need to all be 100% in cash and some people are saying the markets have come down so far that this is great buy opportunity. Maybe so. But we could run down further. I am maybe somewhere in the middle with a lean to being a bit more in cash. I think the uncertainties right now will rule for some time. Maybe after earnings season and the next bigger reports we could have a better idea if things are more stickier and stays rough for a while longer or maybe we see some things that could mean things aren't quite as bad as some think. I'm sure everyone would have a guess as to where we end up over the next days, weeks and months but really who knows. Wish I had one of those crystal ball thingies lol.