LTJPFED's Account Talk

[LTJPFED]

Giving back yesterday's gain, maybe trying to chase some people out, talking heads trying to talk the markets down even more today. Always interesting when they bring on the sky is falling people while the markets are selling off vs. bringing on the market pumpers when the markets are screaming higher. I don't see many of the negative folks coming on when the markets are rolling higher or the positive folks while the markets are crashing. Too many mixed signals for them, I guess.

I sure do hope we see things turn around today or tomorrow and follow through next week. Otherwise, my move was a bad one. I find it hard to believe the Santa Rally was a 2-day event. I know I was hoping for at least a 3-to-4-day rally so I could grab and go. We still are in a bear market, so my expectations are low for any big rallies into the new year.

Hanging in for now....

 

[LTJPFED]

Nice couple days of action but I'm moving 100% to G today with my 1st move this month.

With Powell speaking tomorrow anything can happen. I do think the risk at this point is more to the downside. If we continue higher, where would we go? 4k? 4100? Maybe. Downside risk there we could slide down to re-test lows or beyond. Maybe. I just don't want to push the envelope with Fridays gain and possible todays gain, still could reverse but who knows.

Considered keeping some in but moves last year served me well and I think I will continue to keep my strategy until the market truly show the trend has changed. Maybe we simply move up and fill the gap (what happens then? algos could push things back down) or even push through to 4k or even 4100 but that downside risk is in the forefront of my mind. Again, Powell speaks tomorrow, additional speakers later in the week, CPI coming out this week, other things to consider in near future, makes me think there are still things to change the markets attention and change direction quickly.

I know it's early in the month and I could be missing out on additional gains this week, but the flipside may be true as well and I do not want to wait it out to see. There will be more buying opportunities so I will move to safety and bide my time.

 

[felixthecat]

I like your thinking. I need to dig out of this hole I have been in since last year. I do agree that the market could get a shaky rebound to 4100...but I was for sure thinking we might hit the skids and retest the lows quickly between Feburary-March timeframe. I will just ride this out but I sure hate the quick drops. Ugh. LOL. I know the ending is a panic sell...but I feel good that we will have a nice rebound later this year.

 

[LTJPFED]

I hear you and I wish I had the answers. Lots of sideway action since about mid-October. Some up days, some down. It's like the market has no clue what it wants to do. But I thought a bigger move was coming, usually sideway action portends of bigger moves. The build-up is there. My initial thought was Friday was the beginning of that move higher. My humble opinion was this week was going to be an extension of that move in the direction higher. But after yesterday, even though internals may not have been that bad, I think it was the "fake out" and our big move at some point will be lower (futures are red but that doesn't mean much these days). I could be wrong and hope I am for everyone still in the market. I'm rooting for you!

I thought maybe with all this range bound action for a few months we could have the trend change to the upside and break out of this funk. I think we had some rounded bottoms in some charts but also were some key resistance levels to break through, even some bear flags (even though this past year quite a few of those did not quite break as we thought they would). Plenty of things to analyze and I'm not an expert, I'll let Tom and Mike and company do all that. There are others who do a pretty good job with their posts too. Love looking at the charts some of them post. Wish there were more of them to sink my teeth into. I am still learning for sure. But I thought we could easily head up to that 4100 level with the range bound action, building some additional consolidation. Again, now I'm not so sure. I think the break will be to the downside for whatever reason the markets choose. It could be Powell, CPI (more likely), earnings season coming, or maybe something else we cannot see at this time.

Hang in there! That's all we can do if we choose to keep some in the markets. We can't make too much money sitting on the sidelines but sometimes we have to preserve what we gained instead of watching it burn away. You are probably right too; the ending will be a panic sell but that will be an opportunity for everyone to jump back in. Timing the markets is almost impossible. All we can do is get the gains instead of the losses. I wish I was more optimistic for the year as a whole, I think we end up down/flat, but I do think we will have a couple good rebounds to be a part of throughout the year.

 

[LTJPFED]

Making 1st move of Feb- actually only 2nd move all year up to this point. I've missed out on what many have gained so far this year but hopefully I can catch some on any moves higher in the coming days/weeks. I'm not sure where we are at this point tbh. I'm probably more confused up to this point then what I was going down the back half of last year.

I'm not confident in my move or this decision but by COB:
50-S
20-C
30-G

Leaving some on the sidelines might be best for me since I'm not confident in my decision. If we do get more sell off next week maybe I'll add. Have to wait and see.

Best wishes all!

 

[LTJPFED]

Rolling the dice today, thought about it earlier in the week but held off. At COB I will be 70S 30C.

I'm going against the trend here I suppose. I think more folks are bailing back to G, don't blame them. But with all the warm and hot data coming out this week, more hawkish Fed speak, and anything else you want to consider, the markets have been holding up seemingly well. The floor has not fallen out, just yet. It certainly could happen and I'm not blind to that idea.

I have been looking at all these bull flags and I guess they could do the opposite of what they tend to do and break to the downside but we have been in a 2 week trading range, back and forth, and I think I'm entering all at a good spot here for the next leg up. Last year we had some bear flags that didn't follow through to the downside. In fact some of them went to the upside. So things can always go the opposite of what we think could happen. But some of the bull flags, look at some of the tech stocks, have popped higher, and I do think we end up going higher. Just my opinion in my thread here. I'm not a bear nor a bull right now. More confused than anything but it's hard to ignore the charts.

I will say I don't like the smart money vs dumb money currently and there are some divergences out there but I do think we ultimately end up bouncing higher out of this current 2 week range and maybe that is our bull flag bounce to the upside. Maybe it only lasts a week or 2 but I'd rather take the chance now instead of missing out on the break higher. Like I said I'm not blind to the idea it may not come to fruition, and if it rolls over from here I can take the exit and revisit things come March.

So here's to trying to snag another 3-4%. :smile:

 

[LTJPFED]

Wrong move again....
Hopefully today doesn't end as bad as the futures are currently but I'm not hopeful. Lots of negative still coming out so bad news=bad news. Now just have to decide if I want to sell for the losses or stay put and just ride it out for a long time. You know I was telling myself stay in G for as long as I could but couldn't resist trying to catch a part of any rally that could have occurred. But that will be put on delay for while it seems. I honestly cannot see us rebounding anytime soon, buy hey I was wrong about any rally so I'll defer to the more experienced and knowledgeable folks. Guessing we go test the previous lows, maybe fall further, who really knows.

Best of luck all.

 

[Epic]

You know I was telling myself stay in G for as long as I could but couldn't resist trying to catch a part of any rally that could have occurred.

I agree 100%. To anyone who made good money back 3 to 4 years ago when it was pretty much a steady rise to the Up Side, staying out of the Market and in Safety was the most difficult thing I had to learn when the market started to tank after 2020.
It just wore on my nerves every day, trying to find the sweet spot and time things so I could make a little profit. Finally I just gave up. I kept losing money and the stress of it all just wasn't worth it. :aargh4:
The whole economic situation will shift at some point back to the Up Side, but will most likely take another 1 to 2 years to achieve this as things change and we morph into a new direction. Stronger and more resilient. (Just my opinion)
Hang in there ! ! ! ! :fing02:

 

[LTJPFED]

Small reallocation today, going 100 S at COB. Moved everything over to S. Looked bad earlier but since coming back but not sure how the day ends. Fridays are usually interesting and could break either way at this point. Just hoping to switch it up and catch a bounce of sorts next week. See how things look and if things continue south I'll no doubt hit my loss that I can stomach and head back to G for the remainder of March but willing to see how next week shakes out. At least it's only March and I can still get back to positive territory for the year in the coming months.
Best wishes all!

 

[LTJPFED]

removed post

 

[LTJPFED]

Going back to G. Defeated and frustrated.

Best wishes all!

 

[LTJPFED]

With some weakness today I decided to make a move.
COB
60 C
30 S
10 F

Hope everyone is doing well.

 

[LTJPFED]

Decided to make an adjustment today, not sure I am very confident but at least if things continue higher from here I've kept some on the table. Can make a move later to add more.

80G 10C 10S

Best wishes all!

 

[rangerray]

Smart, if you asked me.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

 

[LTJPFED]

Back and fourth the last few days, decided today to head back to G, considered some F but every time I make that move it goes nowhere. So for those dipping into F I hope it runs up for you!
Looks like things getting a little overextended so maybe that's why the markets are attempting to pullback today.
So for me my move was 100G COB

Best wishes all!

 

[LTJPFED]

Decided to make a move today, been in G since June so been waiting on a sizeable pullback, perhaps this is too soon idk, hope I'm not trying to catch a falling knife but at least I'll keep some in G in case.
COB 40G 50C 10S

Hopefully I can recover the last few months of the year here and get positive at least. I hope everyone is doing well and wish everyone the best!

 

[LTJPFED]

Added the rest on this down day, who knows, it may not end this way, but figured at least with only a handful of days remaining in month at worse case scenario I just move back to G if the floor falls out after tomorrow.
My intentions were to stay in for a couple/few days, mainly for a bounce since we were in oversold conditions but that didn't work out as desired, I suppose I could have sold yesterday but thought today might be a green day again so playing this differently now. Afraid of seasonality with September around the corner so maybe we get lucky and have a turn around tomorrow and into next week before September comes. So that is my hope.

COB 60C 30S 10I

 

[LTJPFED]

At least I made a little during this month to get back into positive territory. However today I decided to make a move to lighten up, take some gains. The uncertainty of tomorrow's data and the seasonality of September I feel like I want to get ahead of that. I could always change my perspective after tomorrow or the holiday but at least I take some of the gain and move into G while keeping some in C, S, and even the I Fund.

So COB:
65 G
20 C
10 S
5 I

Best wishes all!

 

[LTJPFED]

Well it happened again, my transaction from yesterday did not go as intended over on the TSP site. So frustrated. This is the 3rd time it's happened so I don't know if it's them or me.
Instead of what I posted above it is showing as: 32G 36C 26S 6I
That is a slight difference grrrrr

Anyway, hope I get it right on my next change. Moving bits is not the easiest way to do it. You have to manually calculate what your doing if smaller increments. Unless I'm just a total moron and that could be the case.

You all have a great holiday weekend!

 

[nasa1974]

Well it happened again, my transaction from yesterday did not go as intended over on the TSP site. So frustrated. This is the 3rd time it's happened so I don't know if it's them or me.
Instead of what I posted above it is showing as: 32G 36C 26S 6I
That is a slight difference grrrrr

Anyway, hope I get it right on my next change. Moving bits is not the easiest way to do it. You have to manually calculate what your doing if smaller increments. Unless I'm just a total moron and that could be the case.

You all have a great holiday weekend!

Good luck.

Enjoy your long weekend as well.