LTJPFED's Account Talk

[felixthecat]

A 50 percent drop from the top is not out of the question. Therefore…S&P 2400 would be a worst flash drop on a major broadening war conflict. The FED is rattling the sabres indicating good times are over…down to stock market crashing business to end the good times and bring inflation under control. The baby boomers and pre-retirement folks are exiting in mass so putting a lot of downward pressure. Those that are trapped need to stay put or really loose on paper any hopes of returning to full value.

Yeah but great question. And my answer would be who knows. Seriously I am not even sure the markets know where we are in this process. You have some people thinking the sky is falling and we need to all be 100% in cash and some people are saying the markets have come down so far that this is great buy opportunity. Maybe so. But we could run down further. I am maybe somewhere in the middle with a lean to being a bit more in cash. I think the uncertainties right now will rule for some time. Maybe after earnings season and the next bigger reports we could have a better idea if things are more stickier and stays rough for a while longer or maybe we see some things that could mean things aren't quite as bad as some think. I'm sure everyone would have a guess as to where we end up over the next days, weeks and months but really who knows. Wish I had one of those crystal ball thingies lol.

 

[LTJPFED]

Where things end up today is important but there is a chance I'll be moving more into C&S. Early day started deeper in the red but has come back, was even green for a moment. Dollar continues to strengthen, Oil down, usual counters one another, VIX up, Treasuries higher, Global markets in red again. My thought is the markets will continue down eventually but "we are due for a bounce" lol. Stepping in a day early is always my concern because you get another big down day or two takes you a little longer to get that back. But coming into the end of an ugly September with 1 move I'm really leaning to using it to add to C&S.

 

[LTJPFED]

No go. TSP site issues for me this morning. Didn't want to chance it not working. A couple times had to refresh to see the screen. Maybe someone is telling me something lol.

 

[LTJPFED]

Are we keying off the 7 day? Sorry don't know how to load images. Not that tech savvy. Link is just a quick snap shot.
I am going to look at some other charts but if we are keying off a 7 or 8 day average then perhaps algos are selling or buying from those spots? Not sure just a thought.
If that is the case not much upside at this point. If your not already in I'm not sure a move is worth it. I missed yesterday so was going to add today until I noticed this. Still pondering...

View attachment 2022-09-27_9-32-24.pdf

 

[LTJPFED]

Is this whipsaw Wednesday? No it's supposed to be turnaround Tuesday. Markets moving all over the place. Yields keep moving too. Perhaps that is what is causing the market gyrations. The dollar taking a breather but for how long? Not long in my opinion. This "bounce" some, including myself, are hoping for could be today, tomorrow, maybe into the end of the week, IDK. I am thinking, based on just being so oversold for one thing, that we could see a 2-3 day bounce. I had 1 move left and decided to pull the trigger. I double checked my TSP site and does appear my move will take today, correctly I might add.

I'm hoping things stay about the same or even trade a little lower through the afternoon that maybe I get a better closing price. Then maybe over the next few days we get a 2% bounce or so, maybe 3% if we are lucky. If this was going on early in the month I would not be making this move but we are at the 27th and only a couple trading days left in the month so I will make my 2nd move and hope we get that bounce. Perhaps sell next week and head back to G before that next leg lower. I don't think we are in the clear and not at a bottom, even temporarily. I think we could trade lower into October but again just looking for a few days of reprieve.

60% C 40% S

 

[Mcqlives]

Good luck! I think we could go higher 2 or 3 points, but could also quickly drop 5 points. With Powell up in the morning I wasn't going to even think about it.

 

[LTJPFED]

Good luck! I think we could go higher 2 or 3 points, but could also quickly drop 5 points. With Powell up in the morning I wasn't going to even think about it.

Yikes didn't know he was going to be speaking. You made the better decision to sit tight. If we don't see a bounce today and things just roll around I may end up moving back. Something I liked was S fund actually closed in green yesterday but 1 day doesn't do anything. But in this market we have to take those small wins. Just hoping the floor doesn't fall out with him speaking today. SMH

 

[Mcqlives]

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

I use this calendar on a regular basis before I think about moves. I cant remember who on here posted the link years ago but thanks go to them. You may make money, but with the number of chairs speaking I wasn't changing it with all the other market factors. Bank of England is an interesting mover this morning though. Again, good luck!

 

[Mcqlives]

Woo hoo!

 

[LTJPFED]

Got lucky with a bounce yesterday but starting the day in the red again. Short lived most likely and could be a retracement of yesterday, darn algos. Don't know where it ends up today but if the trend is any indication and all the negativity out there my guess is we end up down. Hopeful we have another up day but who knows. Maybe the market is trying to push out the last few sellers before another push up for a few days. One can hope.

 

[LTJPFED]

Forgot to hit the post button lol


Early indications are lots of negativity on the tube and media sources this morning could push this down even more than currently sits. Treasuries up, dollar up again, VIX up and oil seems to be creeping back up so of course all that is adding to the drag this morning. Jobs and GDP came out this morning too but really haven't had a chance to go over the numbers yet.

My hope is we get a bunch of sellers this morning at the open, maybe through mid morning and the rest of the day we climb back up and we shoot higher by the close. If we do, maybe we end up with a longer bounce into next week but not sure we go much further than 1 week unless some of the earnings come in better than expected. Market is still too jittery so I won't be shocked to see some additional back and fourth action for maybe another week, rangebound, going into earning season. With so much on the sidelines already, including institutional moves, again I think a lot of this action is algo driven. So maybe we need to look more at key support and resistance levels not to mention your moving averages.

Best wishes all! Prayers go out to hurricane victims!

 

[LTJPFED]

Happy Friday all, hope you have a great day and weekend!

More of a note to myself here.
Something I noticed on the VIX is we were almost the same spot 31/32 back in May. Yes it was a different feel, even though it was only 4 months ago it didn't feel as negative back then. But back then we spent what about 4 days hanging out before we fell through the mid BB down to around 26 I think. I'm not saying we do the same thing here but we've spent about the same amount of time around this 31/32 level. Perhaps we are about ready to fall to the mid(27) or bottom(22) of the BB. IDK just something I noticed this morning.

If we do break down in the VIX we could see a breather and make a couple/few positive days in equities. But if we break to that upside in the VIX then obviously our bear flags and H&S patterns in some of the charts will start breaking down. Unfortunately we aren't day trading in our TSP accounts so we cannot move that quickly but keep an eye on the VIX.

Early look and changes by the minute- Oil down, Dollar up, Treasuries mixed. Geopolitical and economic news may be more of an impact today into next week. We shall see. Just hope we get some favorable news soon or things will definitely continue lower.

Futures now in the red....

 

[LTJPFED]

Transports and HYG holding up this morning, small caps as well

Stocks dipped down quite a bit earlier at the open but some things have come back into the green, very small, almost flat

Dollar still up but treasuries down

Going to be tough to make a decision move today being month end as well as quarter end. Lots of moving parts. I may have to just sit tight until next week but big risk. I'm really looking at some of these charts holding up, yes in range, but could easily break down further into next week. So huge decision to stick it out in C&S or to get my tail back into G. Less than 2 hours to decide.....

 

[LTJPFED]

Unfortunately moving back to G COB

While it's nice seeing some of these charts hold at these levels, we still are in a bad spot. Yes a nice bounce could be on the horizon but a bigger breakdown could also happen. I don't want to be in no man's land if the latter happens. Can't see the future so best to set my heart aside and use my head. There will be other opportunities so let's wait on those. Hopefully we get a nice big push to the upside this afternoon into the close and this will be a nicer finish to the week than I thought could happen.

Best of luck everyone!

More moves today on the tracker than I expected. Again best of luck all!

 

[LTJPFED]

Another big rally day, congrats to those who are in the markets! Hope it continues to rocket up for you! GO GO GO!!!

Very disappointed in myself with my stupid decision to move back to G on Friday. Feeling pretty dumb this week. Humbled and let down. I will probably have a chance to get in at some point but I'm not chasing 5% gains already. Yep could go up another 10% but does anyone really know? Still lots going on. I won't even begin to try an analyze anything. Obviously my thoughts are incorrect or else I would have seen it and stuck it out.

Best wishes to you all!

 

[LTJPFED]

I've been sitting on my hands for a while but decided to make a move today. Maybe it will be the wrong call, but we have had some selling this week so I'm hopeful to catch a bounce. Feel like I'm trying to catch a falling knife here but decided to make a move before, what many are calling for, a Santa Rally. I think those of us who have moved this month, the last couple/few days, are really hoping for that seasonal rally into the end of the month. I did not move entire balance. I did consider the F and I funds as they seemed to be doing well but decided against any move into those at this time. Maybe the F fund can be a better play after any rally, and into next year.

For now, I am sitting at
40G 40C 20S

Happy Holidays all.

 

[rangerray]

I think you’ll do well. If it looks like it’s going to play out that way, maybe I can get in Tuesday.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

 

[LTJPFED]

I think you’ll do well. If it looks like it’s going to play out that way, maybe I can get in Tuesday.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

I hope so man. I have been overly patient last couple months. I think if we can get 2-4 days of green somewhere between next week or the following week, I will take that gain and head back to G. Just not confident in these markets as I know others have been feeling for months. 2023 could be even more interesting than this year.

 

[LTJPFED]

Adding to allocations today: 70C 30S
Like many others, hoping to catch that rally this week. Still going to be watching things carefully and do not think we will see a continuation rally into January. I believe any rally will still be short lived but just my humble opinion.

 

[TommyIV]

I think some dip buyers were thinking the same thing last Wednesday and Thursday (myself included) and they've been retreating or their stops are getting hit. The short-term bull in me sees this as a perfect set-up for a Turnaround-Tuesday. But I wouldn't be surprised if this gets uglier before we get that relief bounce.