Made 1st move of the month to 100% S COB. Almost did it on the 1st, almost did it yesterday, 3rd time is the charm. Had the "gut feeling" to hold out a bit longer to move out of G. I really don't like the action but things have run down for what about 5 out of 6 trading days...I know they could run more just hope things bounce up from here, I just hope this is the good day to make the move. We shall see. Best of luck to you all today and this month!!
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LTJPFED's Account Talk
- Thread starter LTJPFED
- Start date
Thank you, I hope things work out for you as well. I know last year I spent numerous times watching from the sidelines because I was hesitant to believe the markets could continue to rise but they did. I just hope I'm not making the wrong move thinking things can't keep going down from here. At least I have 1 move so if next week is the total landslide down I could jump out if needed. Where is that crystal ball lol.....
If the markets could just close at these levels today....wishful thinking I know.
Crazy swings lately. You never know which way we will end the day which makes that noon cutoff so frustrating. I trade my wife's account for her company and it's nice to have much more flexibility than the TSP. I just can't believe we are so locked in. I remember the days of multiple moves a month, it was a bit nicer back then.
Anyway congrats to those who moved back to the pad on the 5th. If I knew it was going to reverse and head much higher I probably would not have moved out of G but oh well. It worked out for you guys and that is awesome! Hopefully we can keep these gains today but you never know. I am nervous about things continuing higher but you know I get gun shy. Like others have said I think we are in a trading range, kind of wider than I thought too. I am still looking for that crystal ball lol.....
I noticed some new people around here which is great. Welcome if I don't say it within your thread. There are lot of really wise people here and some solid sources as well. Too many to list but if you get a chance to read some threads, especially those who like charting, you will find these people have a good idea of where we are and sometimes which way we will break. There are also some great sources, videos and those I follow on youtube, thanks nnut. Tom, IT, DBA, Bquat, CH all very good sources imho. There are plenty of others too but welcome to the site and if you get a chance look for those threads! Oh there are also a few here who do some individual stock and fund picking and once in a while will share which ones they are watching, buying or selling. You can even pick up some of those in some of the videos that nnut posts. Great resources all around!
Crazy swings lately. You never know which way we will end the day which makes that noon cutoff so frustrating. I trade my wife's account for her company and it's nice to have much more flexibility than the TSP. I just can't believe we are so locked in. I remember the days of multiple moves a month, it was a bit nicer back then.
Anyway congrats to those who moved back to the pad on the 5th. If I knew it was going to reverse and head much higher I probably would not have moved out of G but oh well. It worked out for you guys and that is awesome! Hopefully we can keep these gains today but you never know. I am nervous about things continuing higher but you know I get gun shy. Like others have said I think we are in a trading range, kind of wider than I thought too. I am still looking for that crystal ball lol.....
I noticed some new people around here which is great. Welcome if I don't say it within your thread. There are lot of really wise people here and some solid sources as well. Too many to list but if you get a chance to read some threads, especially those who like charting, you will find these people have a good idea of where we are and sometimes which way we will break. There are also some great sources, videos and those I follow on youtube, thanks nnut. Tom, IT, DBA, Bquat, CH all very good sources imho. There are plenty of others too but welcome to the site and if you get a chance look for those threads! Oh there are also a few here who do some individual stock and fund picking and once in a while will share which ones they are watching, buying or selling. You can even pick up some of those in some of the videos that nnut posts. Great resources all around!
rangerray
Active member
Ain't that the truth. I recall many days where it did do just that, but this volatility is a doozy. The VIX is slipping lower, so maybe we can have a day of stability.
Something to think about which I've seen a couple places this morning, is tomorrow is another 10 yr Note Auction. Last time it didn't go so well and rates went up. I'm not sure but if tomorrow's auction doesn't go well again would rates typically move up again? If so would the markets get jittery in the afternoon and perhaps pull back again tomorrow by the close? Not looking too far ahead but 1 day for us in TSP land does matter. Not sure if this is something to be concerned about.....
Khotso
Well-known member
Bond yields are down this morning on 10 Year Treasuries -- so that's a good sign.
Decided to move back to G 100%. I have had some good gains this month and just uncertain which way we will continue to grind. I can see cases for us reaching new highs this week or next but I can also see us fading back down a bit. Not sure I can stomach the ride so locking in gains at COB. Wish you all the best regardless where you sit today. I hope you make more regardless!! $$$ 
rangerray
Active member
You are not alone. I thought about getting out yesterday, but the action just prior to the cut-off fed my greed and I went into the evening very happy. But, what a difference a day makes. My only concern now is if I should have exited completely today or if my 50% strategy will pay off.
1st IFT 60G 40C
Not sure if today was the day to dip toes over but I am going for it. I am not 100% confident of this move and that is why I am only doing 40%. IF we drop further or have additional declines perhaps I'll add more or the rest to C. I feel like it is the better performing fund at the moment.
Best of luck all!
Not sure if today was the day to dip toes over but I am going for it. I am not 100% confident of this move and that is why I am only doing 40%. IF we drop further or have additional declines perhaps I'll add more or the rest to C. I feel like it is the better performing fund at the moment.
Best of luck all!
That was a quick stay, moved 100G today. In review all the charts and information having at my disposal and my own gut instinct, which could be wrong lol, I felt like today was the day to get back into G. If we move up a few percentage points from here before another pull back I won't be shocked, that is what the markets do. We zig it zags. Anyway I hope you guys all did better in April than I did but just was not feeling super optimistic about breaking to the upside like we did but then when I thought we would move up I jumped in and it has been relatively flat....ugh. So back in G until May and hopefully get some better opportunities. Best of luck!
New Allocation COB-
20%- G
30%- C
40%- S
10%- I
Wanted to make a move last week but was on vacation and didn't have my normal research time. So did some quick reviewing of last weeks data. Quite a bit to go through. Anyway, not 100% confident in putting 100% allocation back in but feel this move gives me a chance to get some action, good or bad, over the next week or so. I hope it is a good call. Still giving myself a small amount to move more in on any pullbacks beyond today. Hope all is well with everyone!
20%- G
30%- C
40%- S
10%- I
Wanted to make a move last week but was on vacation and didn't have my normal research time. So did some quick reviewing of last weeks data. Quite a bit to go through. Anyway, not 100% confident in putting 100% allocation back in but feel this move gives me a chance to get some action, good or bad, over the next week or so. I hope it is a good call. Still giving myself a small amount to move more in on any pullbacks beyond today. Hope all is well with everyone!
So instead of bailing on this I added the rest of my 20% back over to C and I. I'm rolling the dice. So new allocation is 40-C 40-S and 20-I by COB. I didn't think I would be using that dry powder to move more within a couple days but oh well. Now lets just hope we bounce off these levels the rest of the week and into the rest of May. Fingers crossed!
Sorry I didn't post yesterday on my move. I was in meetings all morning up through lunch. I did manage to get a IFT done however. I moved 75-G but kept 10-C 10-S and 5-I. In hindsight probably should have stood pat. I actually didn't look at a couple things I wanted to like seasonality for example. Anyway I just wasn't very confident in the move to begin with into C, S and I but made a small amount, nothing to get excited about but hey it wasn't a loss. So now I still have a small percentage out there in the markets and not sure which way we could go. If we break lower I could move the rest back to G or if we move higher obviously I would get a little more gain for May. I am happy with myself that I chose to do May the way I did. I liked waiting until we got into the month to see the landscape. The talking heads on TV really do not help much. I have gotten so much more information from this site and the videos that some have posted, which I now religiously watch every morning over coffee. Well, except for busy days at work like yesterday.
Anyway, I could see that melt up that some are discussing but a couple of the charts do not make me think that could happen. End of the month, holiday weekend approaching, we could see light markets but again some are suggesting that melt up phase beginning. I am not sure I agree. I think we could see a bit more range bound activity in all charts. Perhaps the C fund could move up but S doesn't look that great and I believe a couple of the charts have formed bear flags. Of course I'm not the expert. The I fund has been interesting. I wish I would have jumped in before I did because it did move up to the top of the channel yesterday. I moved out yesterday just because I felt like it could pull back to mid or low part of that range because the dollar could see a move back up. Not saying it's at a low by any means. The Nasdaq looked like a bear flag had formed but it broke above that and so I think maybe that was negated. Who knows maybe the Nasdaq takes the markets higher into June.
I do hope we explode higher, for those who are 100% in the markets. I root for everyone.
My step son is in the military somewhere in the world and occasionally we discuss the TSP. He is kicking my butt at the moment and is up about 8 or 9% on me. But I have managed to claw back a little bit, it was worse than that lol. I am looking forward to what the rest of the week holds and going into June. I am hopeful to keep my small portion invested into C, S and even the I fund, although again I could see I and S funds pulling back a bit more going into June.
Best of luck all!!
Anyway, I could see that melt up that some are discussing but a couple of the charts do not make me think that could happen. End of the month, holiday weekend approaching, we could see light markets but again some are suggesting that melt up phase beginning. I am not sure I agree. I think we could see a bit more range bound activity in all charts. Perhaps the C fund could move up but S doesn't look that great and I believe a couple of the charts have formed bear flags. Of course I'm not the expert. The I fund has been interesting. I wish I would have jumped in before I did because it did move up to the top of the channel yesterday. I moved out yesterday just because I felt like it could pull back to mid or low part of that range because the dollar could see a move back up. Not saying it's at a low by any means. The Nasdaq looked like a bear flag had formed but it broke above that and so I think maybe that was negated. Who knows maybe the Nasdaq takes the markets higher into June.
I do hope we explode higher, for those who are 100% in the markets. I root for everyone.
My step son is in the military somewhere in the world and occasionally we discuss the TSP. He is kicking my butt at the moment and is up about 8 or 9% on me. But I have managed to claw back a little bit, it was worse than that lol. I am looking forward to what the rest of the week holds and going into June. I am hopeful to keep my small portion invested into C, S and even the I fund, although again I could see I and S funds pulling back a bit more going into June. Best of luck all!!
Moved today~ feel like I've been worse than a snail in my TSP, of course that happens when you are in G lol.
Anyway no earth shattering insight from me, just been looking for a 2-3 day pull back to dip my toes back in and here we are. Wish the markets continued to the downside this afternoon but not sure that will happen. All the Rainbow and Butterfly speakers will be on at noon on CNBC so I'm sure the markets all turn back to green. Those guys and gals drive me crazy. Never a bad day in the markets in their eyes. Regardless I feel like this is the opportunity I was looking for. I couldn't jump all in because if we do have further weakness in the coming days I would like some in my pocket to move more over into C and S. I am more confident, is that a thing lol, in C not breaking too much further down so I'm putting a bit more in C. S looks like it could break a little further before support so I'm not as confident in S but sure wish I was and hope I'm wrong. Those moves in S can be wild some days. Love the charts that ALL of our frequent posters put up. They really do help in furthering my research and decisions. Putting everything together this morning I'm making my 1st move for August, hope I'm not trying to catch that falling knife.
So at COB I'm: 35-G 40-C 25-S
Anyway no earth shattering insight from me, just been looking for a 2-3 day pull back to dip my toes back in and here we are. Wish the markets continued to the downside this afternoon but not sure that will happen. All the Rainbow and Butterfly speakers will be on at noon on CNBC so I'm sure the markets all turn back to green. Those guys and gals drive me crazy. Never a bad day in the markets in their eyes. Regardless I feel like this is the opportunity I was looking for. I couldn't jump all in because if we do have further weakness in the coming days I would like some in my pocket to move more over into C and S. I am more confident, is that a thing lol, in C not breaking too much further down so I'm putting a bit more in C. S looks like it could break a little further before support so I'm not as confident in S but sure wish I was and hope I'm wrong. Those moves in S can be wild some days. Love the charts that ALL of our frequent posters put up. They really do help in furthering my research and decisions. Putting everything together this morning I'm making my 1st move for August, hope I'm not trying to catch that falling knife.
So at COB I'm: 35-G 40-C 25-S
Moved to 100% G COB. Small gain for the month and I will take it. I thought about adding to S, part of me thinks S might break out even more from here but not confident, or even just scaling back to small % in C and S but end of the month and uncertainties keep me from feeling all giddy about things. This may sound counterintuitive but I would rather go into typically one of the worst months for returns with 100% G and see what happens as September unfolds. If I miss a couple percentage points move so be it but if I am in safety and avoid that 5-10% pullback that some are still calling for then I will sleep better lol. Who knows when/if that happens. Markets can move quickly but then again it moves at a snails pace when some of the experts are calling for something big and it doesn't materialize for months. Some are saying S&P 5k (didn't catch their timeframe), IDK but if that is the case there is still plenty of time to find another entry point.
Best wishes all!
This is what I had ready to go and then saw DBA's charts and was going to 2nd guess myself. I'm going with my gut and all back to G.
Best wishes all!
This is what I had ready to go and then saw DBA's charts and was going to 2nd guess myself. I'm going with my gut and all back to G.
Bit the bullet and went 100%S. I don't particularly feel great about it but feel like the day will end down again and maybe we catch a relief next week. Was going to only do a portion but it is end of month so going into October with both moves available so we'll see what next month holds.
felixthecat
Active member
Agreed…moved 75 to G. There could be one to two more up days. I have achieved my target. Earnings season in swing now so left 25 percent in for pocket change.
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