LTJPFED's Account Talk

[LTJPFED]

Had my hands on the trigger today but couldn't make any moves. I'm going to sit tight and try to be patient for a move lower. I'm not losing any money but I'm not making any gains. That is the frustrating part. I have plenty of time before I retire so I could probably dip in here and there but I'm just not confident in any move right now. I'm not speculating on where we go from here. I could guess and say we go lower into May or late May but just a guess. But with that feeling I'm hoping it comes true and I get an opportunity in the next coming weeks to move back into other funds. So for now still 100% G.

 

[LTJPFED]

Looking back had multiple chances to move out of G but FOMO kept me from doing it. If that makes sense. Was hesitant because I thought we were going to be heading back down at some point. I realize now I missed out. Pre-markets up nicely again this morning. Yes the day could end down but as of right now it looks nice for those in anything other than G. Congrats to those who have made money since the March lows. Markets have had an awesome bounce and look like nothing is going to slow it down. I guess I'll move some over soon, lol waiting on a pull back, hell maybe I'll be waiting until the next crisis. I feel so stupid.

Who would have thought the market would have moved so much higher so fast. I mean I get it the Fed is really to blame for part of it right? Makes me wonder where we would be if they hadn't stepped in. We would have had some what of a more normal recovery? IDK just makes me want to puke I missed all this move higher.

Yes I have a ways to retire but that gain sure would have been nice.

Have a good day everyone! Enjoy your ride if your in it.

 

[nasa1974]

Then on the other side of FOMO you stay invested and ride the sharp blade right into the pits.

 

[LTJPFED]

I know it's early in the month but anyone considering using an IFT today? Looking at some videos on the tube and of course checking out the boards here I am getting the feeling the markets will continue to move higher from here. I have been watching KR (Kendall Report) and he is talking about a pull back but then move higher into the 3380-3460 space. He is talking about moves potentially taking weeks to materialize so this is not a 1 or 2 day move. So makes me think even I can get a 4 or 5% move higher that I should consider moving back to a C/S combo today with 1 of my moves.

Thoughts? What are you doing today in your TSP or trading accounts? I am looking to perhaps making a move to add a couple stocks to my now empty portfolio but not sure about my TSP. Those 2 moves are so important.

 

[Whipsaw]

I have the same impression, my plan is to hold through the weakness, assuming it doesn't roll over. I added airline and cruise line stock otherwise as they are still relatively low with upside to go as the economy opens up and virus fears fade (UAL, DAL, RCL).

 

[LTJPFED]

100% G COB- maybe making the wrong move but at least I live to fight another day, I'll be happy with the gains and look to re-enter on another down day sometime early July perhaps.

 

[Rod]

100% G COB- maybe making the wrong move but at least I live to fight another day, I'll be happy with the gains and look to re-enter on another down day sometime early July perhaps.

What was your exact allocation prior to your IFT?

What was the effective date of it?

 

[LTJPFED]

I was 100G on 6/9 move to 100S COB 6/10
Today I moved from 100S back to 100G

I could have moved only a portion but just not feeling it. I feel like we are toying with another big move. Maybe gun shy idk. Even if we get a run up to the 3200 levels really I don't see us going much higher than that before we pull back again. Maybe we will be range bound for a few months idk. Just want to feel better about my position on re-entry so I'll try to be patient lol.

 

[Rod]

I was 100G on 6/9 move to 100S COB 6/10
Today I moved from 100S back to 100G

I could have moved only a portion but just not feeling it. I feel like we are toying with another big move. Maybe gun shy idk. Even if we get a run up to the 3200 levels really I don't see us going much higher than that before we pull back again. Maybe we will be range bound for a few months idk. Just want to feel better about my position on re-entry so I'll try to be patient lol.

Well, unless DWCPF comes away today with at least 2.70%, you'll be selling at a loss. Albeit a small one. Here's hoping you at least break even.

 

[LTJPFED]

Yeah I know. I really was wanting to hang in for another day or two but with volatility you just don't know. We could end up back lower from here or another leg up to 3200 or higher so just hard to make decision. Just went with my gut. Hard not to try and get that back so at least I would have been sitting in G with the full comeback but if we stay around these levels I would love to have another 2% day. Beats a down day.

 

[Rod]

Just went with my gut.

Your gut will be right more times than not.

It's only when you are 100% confident (in your head) of your trade that you should begin to worry.

 

[LTJPFED]

I forgot to add my move on 7/2 went 60S 40C, still there. However I'm wondering if maybe I should get back to the pad? I'm leaning to a full move today. Haven't done anything yet. That 3231 on S&P is a key point I think. Couple others have said that as well. Hard to judge 4 hours from COB. I will wait for another 40 mins or so and see where we are. My gut says move but we shall see.

I did cash in on V and SGEN earlier this morning. Small profit but I'll take it. Looking at a couple more stocks but only on my wish list. Those beaten down stocks are surging today, due to vaccine I suppose. Not a bad bet probably but still early in the process imo.

 

[LTJPFED]

Well markets have moved down from morning highs. I'm not so sure we move back up a little more before the close to give us a green day but I'm not moving out of C/S. I do think we get a couple more up days here to come and I don't want to miss those. Not sure about my instinct/guess but I do think that will be the case before the end of the month. We should get some better news than expected on earnings too so maybe that helps keep us up a little longer. I just get the feeling we move the opposite of what everyone thinks so that's why I'm sticking to C/S for now. I know real fine analysis but I'm not one of those. Just trying to save more than I lose.

 

[tsptalk]

I forgot to add my move on 7/2 went 60S 40C, still there.

No AutoTracker account?

 

[LTJPFED]

Been sitting in G for a while, had a move back in September, nothing in October. I was hesitant simply because of all the uncertainties out there. No point in going into all the current uncertainties because we all know them. But looking at the markets I am hesitant on moving anything until we hear the Fed speak today. I am pretty sure they do. Perhaps we see a pull back after that or maybe a slight push higher. However in my opinion I think we retrace in the /ES and /NQ back to the mid point levels around 3380-3400 on ES and around 11550 on the NQ. After that perhaps we pull back down to the lower part of that range about 3200 and 10700 respectively. After that it could get interesting. Do we retrace back down to a lower range of 2800-3k and 9800-10k or do we just trade in the upper range for a while before breaking higher? That's where I'm looking to maybe make a move to not only get back into C & S, perhaps the lower support of the upper ranges. I will be looking to add into stocks as well at those levels. Trading up here is not wise unless you want to short the markets. Not bad if you trade futures. Eventually we will move higher into new ranges but for now we trade the range we have been in. Perhaps we break out into that new range in Q1 or Q2. But for me I will be sitting on hands until I see that retrace to the lower part of the ranges.

Just wanted to add I think the markets are sucking buyers in before the floor drops out. We are looking at a potential double top in ES and NQ which can be bearish. So that is another reason I'm holding out for a better entry into the markets and stocks.

 

[LTJPFED]

Maybe I'm just tired of not making any money or perhaps I just have a gut feeling I am making this move today. I probably should have moved on Friday but oh well that is just typical for me. My timing is usually off so I'm really hoping this move pans out. I know you guys need it but I really need it. I'm so far behind because I didn't make too many moves last year because I was afraid we were going to crash again so it kept me in G and needless to say I didn't make anything last year. So I'm hopeful this year I can make some positive changes for my TSP. I need it bad. I don't want to be working until I'm 80.

Anyway I made my 1st move of the year as 20G 50S 30I

Hopefully this works out. I have to do a better job this year! I wish you guys all the best!! For those staying patient I for one understand. But for those who made moves already this year and are kicking butt congrats on those gains!!

 

[tsptalk]

Good luck, LTJPFED!

 

[rangerray]

Trust a strong trend, if you can. You can always go back to G if you get spooked or just reduce your risk. Then, take a fresh look at it the next month. But most importantly, follow the things that might affect your TSP every single day. It's kind of like maintenance on your car or yard work; if you do a little along the way, it's not such a monster.

 

[LTJPFED]

Today is my spook day lol. I am moving back to the pad. 100% G. I was going to just move a portion but with not making anything last year a 2 or 3% gain within a week I will take it and wait until next month to see where we are sitting. I'm no expert but learning. The levels to me seem a bit stretched but as the pros say markets can get stretched in either direction for some time. I just feel for me personally this makes the most sense. I would have loved to ride in S and I for a bit longer, heck I even took a look at moving to F with this move since F has been gradually going down for a while but couldn't make that jump just yet. Think G is the safest play for me today to start the week. Best of luck to you all no matter what you do the rest of the month!

 

[rangerray]

The only good experience I've had in F Fund (that I can remember) was right when the pandemic was setting in. C, S and I Funds were tanking and I moved to 100% F and made some small gains for several days. When the pandemic downturn was settled in, even the F Fund was losing. So, my personal opinion is that the F Fund is only occasionally useful. For me, I wouldn't go there just because it seems like it's due for some positive action. However, G fund has never let me down when I wasn't sure.

Just my thoughts. I'm not an analyst. I'm not an expert.