Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

[Handballer]

The C fund is killing me softly!

 

[James48843]

Sorry- had some major personal stuff taking place and missed the noon switch.

Thanks for jumping in Cactus! - Yes, the switch is to "C".
That one eeked out a 0.85% gain lat month.

Good luck.

 

[PessOptimist]

Sorry- had some major personal stuff taking place and missed the noon switch.

Thanks for jumping in Cactus! - Yes, the switch is to "C".
That one eeked out a 0.85% gain lat month.

Good luck.

Hope you took care of that "major personal stuff" OK. Noticed it didn't keep you from posting on the political forums nor the corn and ethanol forum.

PO

 

[Cactus]

No problem, James. I understand the major personal stuff. It's my recurring family and work issues that made me reluctant to put the LMBF-1 on the AT. I can't guarantee that I will be here at the end of every month to enter the IFT.

Speaking of which, congratulations are in order for LMBF. Making it into the C Fund close to the start of this rally, and in a month with positive historical returns, it's set to fly past the entire LMBF-1 family as they are resting in the safety of the G Fund this month.

 

[James48843]

Here we are- another month goes by, and we eek out a small gain.

"C" was ok- but this time it looks like the "I" fund was a bit better.



We'll be making the IFT into "I" before the noon deadline tomorrow.

Good luck.

 

[James48843]

Last month it looks like "C" fund did the best, although all the funds were in the green for the month.

We'll move to "C" today- executing the entry before noon- to be effective at the close of business today.



Good luck!

 

[James48843]

Well, "C" did ok, but "S" was the best fund in June.

We move to "S" tomorrow before noon.

Be careful!

 

[James48843]

Well, "C" did ok, but "S" was the best fund in June.

We move to "S" tomorrow before noon.

Be careful!

Here is that graphic:

 

[James48843]

Ouch!

Well, the "Last Month Best Fund" really tanked last month- and we end up with a shift to "G", as "G" was best in July.



That really blows- because it puts us at odds with several other very successful systems. I have been sticking with LMBF this year, and my gut, when I SHOULD have been watching something else .

Oh well. I'll just have to keep working a few years more, I guess.

Officially, the LMBF method moves to "G" before noon today- and will be effective at the close of trade.

Remember- your milage may vary, don't buy a pig in a poke, watch out for low bridges, and anything can happen here. Besides, I did NOT stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Good luck!

 

[weatherweenie]

Has anyone done research on a Last Month's Worst Fund strategy? My thinking is, if for example in July the S fund dropped 4.38%, would it be wise to invest in the S fund thinking it would bounce?

 

[jonfresno]

Has anyone done research on a Last Month's Worst Fund strategy? My thinking is, if for example in July the S fund dropped 4.38%, would it be wise to invest in the S fund thinking it would bounce?

Check the alternate lmbf thread. Cactus has run all sorts of variances to this. I believe there is a link that shows that method back tested.

 

[James48843]

Easy come, easy go.

Last month it was "S".

And so we move. Good luck.

 

[James48843]

LMBF moves to "C" on Monday.

 

[dpmp]

The "best fund" strategy uses data from the past month to invest, with the assumption that the next month will be similar. I notice the "best fund" has been moving between G, C and S. How successful have you been by following this strategy?

 

[jonfresno]

The "best fund" strategy uses data from the past month to invest, with the assumption that the next month will be similar. I notice the "best fund" has been moving between G, C and S. How successful have you been by following this strategy?

Check out the alternative LMBF thread http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-term-strategies/15018-alternate-lmbf-methods.html

Thanks to Cactus, it's incredibly comprehensive with returns for LMBF, and a whole slew of variances of the strategy as well.

 

[James48843]

Well, two things.

Here was december's results:
[TABLE="class: cms_table"]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #ff99cc, align: left"]Dec[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]G=0.18%; F=[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.21%; [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]C=(0.24%);[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]S= 0.99%; [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]I= (4.13%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]; LMBF=(1.09%)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


First, Mea culpa! I screwed up by not checking where the LMBF was sitting on Dec 31.
I thought it was somewhere else-in "S"- and I didn't come look.

I did not realize it was in "C" until this morning.

My bad for failing to pay attention.

Second- I am going to do a tweak to the LMBF system this year.

If, at the end of the month, two out of three of the stock/bond funds are in negative territory, then I am going to make that as a "sell stocks and move to "G"" instead of a -pure move only to the highest last return. And I am going to avoid the "F" fund as the safety backup- and only use "G".

This past month was a good example- the "C" fund and the "I" fund were negative, and the "S" fund was only SLIGHTLY postive (less than 1%), but it would have been enough to remain in "S" for January. I thought in fact it was sitting in "S", and didn't realise it had moved to "C" last month, so I screwed up. I had been thnking about those tweaks for a while, and wanted to wait until the end of the year to start making adjustments- but I thought I saw S" was positive in Dec, I thought that is where I was sitting, so onl New Years day I thought hard about whether or not to tamper at all with it. It wasn't until this morning that I actually looked and saw that it was sitting in "C", not "S", and that blew my plans to smitherines. Sorry. I screwed up.

Anyway- we'll see if that new tweaked formula is any more sucessful. (if 2 out of 3 stock funds are negative- go to safety, and also avoid the "F")

I don't know if it will or won't. - but I'll try it and find out.

Remember- none if this is science- it's all "art", and a dash of hope.


Best of luck to everyone in 2015. If this stuff were easy, we'd all be rich. But we're not. Cause it's not.

Good luck.

LMBF moves to "G" as of the COB today. (I know- a day late and a dollar short. )

 

[jonfresno]

Well, two things.

Here was december's results:
[TABLE="class: cms_table"]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Dec
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]G=0.18%; F=
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.21%;
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]C=(0.24%);
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]S= 0.99%;
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]I= (4.13%)

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]; LMBF=(1.09%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


First, Mea culpa! I screwed up by not checking where the LMBF was sitting on Dec 31.
I thought it was somewhere else-in "S"- and I didn't come look.

I did not realize it was in "C" until this morning.

My bad for failing to pay attention.

Second- I am going to do a tweak to the LMBF system this year.

If, at the end of the month, two out of three of the stock/bond funds are in negative territory, then I am going to make that as a "sell stocks and move to "G"" instead of a -pure move only to the highest last return. And I am going to avoid the "F" fund as the safety backup- and only use "G".

This past month was a good example- the "C" fund and the "I" fund were negative, and the "S" fund was only SLIGHTLY postive (less than 1%), but it would have been enough to remain in "S" for January. I thought in fact it was sitting in "S", and didn't realise it had moved to "C" last month, so I screwed up. I had been thnking about those tweaks for a while, and wanted to wait until the end of the year to start making adjustments- but I thought I saw S" was positive in Dec, I thought that is where I was sitting, so onl New Years day I thought hard about whether or not to tamper at all with it. It wasn't until this morning that I actually looked and saw that it was sitting in "C", not "S", and that blew my plans to smitherines. Sorry. I screwed up.

Anyway- we'll see if that new tweaked formula is any more sucessful. (if 2 out of 3 stock funds are negative- go to safety, and also avoid the "F")

I don't know if it will or won't. - but I'll try it and find out.

Remember- none if this is science- it's all "art", and a dash of hope.


Best of luck to everyone in 2015. If this stuff were easy, we'd all be rich. But we're not. Cause it's not.

Good luck.

LMBF moves to "G" as of the COB today. (I know- a day late and a dollar short. )

Hey James, I missed this earlier post, but that sounds like a neat little tweak. You know Cactus has that "Alternate LMBF" thread where he back tests all sorts of crazy ideas - and I say crazy because he has very patiently tried stuff I've come up with that was, well, kinda crazy....

I think this idea would be worthy of that research. Maybe post it in that thread and see if he'd be willing to have a go at it when he has the time?

 

[James48843]

Last Month's best fund method does an IFT today before noon-

Going into the "F" fund.

I throw my hands up in the air.

Good luck.

 

[Cactus]

... that's by the old rules. The new LMBF should be staying in the G Fund since C & S are negative for the month. Am I missing something here?

 

[James48843]

Last months best fund moves to "S" this month.

Good luck.