Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

[craigerv]

Re: Last month's best fund method

I agree with Sensei. The LMBF seems to catch larger momentum in equities and give you gains in the trending periods but on a bi-weekly basis there is probably too much volatility that it will throw off the system. As far as the returns show though, it seems to do a decent job but that 2011 return is one of those things that I would tend to design a safety catch for.

 

[MKeber78]

Re: Last month's best fund method

Thanks for the input gentlemen! Looks like I'll be jumping on the LMBF bandwagon with the rest of you.

 

[Soupguy]

Re: Last month's best fund method

Please do me a favor and check my math. These are the funds we actually IFT'ed into each month starting Jan 1st and their returns the last day of that month. Ive been sick this whole week and cant concentrate on a thing.

Thanks

[TABLE="width: 283"]
[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Fund % Gain[/TD]
[TD]Fund Allocation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]January-12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.50%[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]February-12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.99%[/TD]
[TD]S[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]March-12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD]I[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]April-12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.62%[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]May-12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.91%[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]June-12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.05%[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]July-12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.56%[/TD]
[TD]I[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]August-12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.25%[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]September-12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.51%[/TD]
[TD]S[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]October-12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.85%[/TD]
[TD]I[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]November-12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.41%[/TD]
[TD]I[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]December-12[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]I[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.54%[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[ILoveTDs]

Re: Last month's best fund method

Quick question from a guy who is new to this stuff.

Could you use the LMBF method, but on a bi-weekly (every two weeks) vice a monthly basis to ride the trends more accurately due to the higher sampling rate (24'ish vs 12 a year). I thought this could be viable since TSP allows you to move your money twice a month without putting it in to the G Fund? Or is there an obsticle to this I'm missing because I'm new to it?

Thanks.

I finally crunched out hard numbers.

Ok here is what I see for LMBF.

2008 - (12.10)%
2009 - 12.00%
2010 - 12.73%
2011 - 10.58%
2012 - 15.18% (as of 3 Dec)

Total since 1 Jan 08 41.34%

Ok I'll call this one PPE. After every payday COB calculate return over the past two weeks and buy into that fund COB Monday. For months with three PPE if last best fund is in equities and your in equities stay. If best fund not in equities move to G Fund.

2008 - (5.88)%
2009 - 7.61%
2010 - 22.36%
2011 - (12.97)%
2012 - 19.44% (as of 3 Dec)

Total since 1 Jan 08 28.83%


Ok I'll call this on BWBF. After COB last day of month and 15th every month you calculate the best fund since the previous calculation. Get in best fund COB first trading day of month and COB first trading day after 15th.

2008 - 3.09%
2009 - 7.54%
2010 - 28.11%
2011 - (19.65)%
2012 - 5.05% (as of 3 Dec)

Total since 1 Jan 08 19.87%

Ok last on I'll call mid month. After COB last day of month and 15th every month you calculate the best fund over the last month. Get in best fund COB first trading day of month and COB first trading day after 15th.

2008 - (0.62)%
2009 - 19.21%
2010 - (5.09)%
2011 - (3.44)%
2012 - 11.76% (as of 3 Dec)

Total since 1 Jan 08 44.65%

 

[DrFaustus]

Re: Last month's best fund method

I think your math is messed up. Looking at the mid-month numbers:
( 1-.0062 )*( 1.1921 )*( 1-.0509 )*( 1-.0344 )*( 1.1176 ) = 1.2134 ... or an overall increase of 21.34%

 

[Nordic]

Re: Last month's best fund method

"

I don't know toms big formula for needing a 100% gain after a 50% drop to get back even overall. But here are the rough summing numbers."


If $1000 loses 50% you have $500. In order to get back to $1000, the remaining $500 would need to gain 100%. Gaining 50% of $500 only results in $750.

 

[rcknfrewld]

Re: Last month's best fund method

What do they say...you only get comments if you matter...clearly LMBF...you matter...right on right on....something so simple is very complex...so they say....jealousy is the best form of flattery....

 

[Soupguy]

Re: Last month's best fund method

Great month for the I Fund, over 4% gain for December. We will be keeping it here for the month of January 2013. Good luck to everyone and have a great New Year!

 

[Hallatauer]

Re: Last month's best fund method

I love LMBF.... my TSP account balance is just amazing.

 

[James48843]

Re: Last month's best fund method

For the month of December, the "I" fund did it again, with a return of 4.02%- meaning we leave the money in the "I" fund for another month again.



Best of luck in 2013.

P.S.- if you are using the LMBF method, and are making lots of dough, please remember to tip the doorman when you retire. I could use it.

 

[Rifleman]

Re: Last month's best fund method

Yeah I gotta say this LMBF is best thing I have ever seen, if you stay patient and keep emotions out of it, it seems to work very well! And James if your ever around Northeastern KY theres definetly a beer or 12 waiting on ya.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Re: Last month's best fund method

For the month of December, the "I" fund did it again, with a return of 4.02%- meaning we leave the money in the "I" fund for another month again.

View attachment 21720

Best of luck in 2013.

P.S.- if you are using the LMBF method, and are making lots of dough, please remember to tip the doorman when you retire. I could use it.

Hey, James, this method seems pretty good! I notice that 2011 also returned +12% !! And that was a pretty tough year.

What do you think of making a good thing even better?! Since we get 2 IFTs a month, maybe shift funds at the beginning and MIDDLE of the month(?). This would respond quicker to possible market changes....just wonderin'. :blink:

 

[James48843]

Re: Last month's best fund method

Hey, James, this method seems pretty good! I notice that 2011 also returned +12% !! And that was a pretty tough year.

What do you think of making a good thing even better?! Since we get 2 IFTs a month, maybe shift funds at the beginning and MIDDLE of the month(?). This would respond quicker to possible market changes....just wonderin'. :blink:

Nope. I am not changing a thing-

It is what it is.

If you want to try something else- by all means, feel free to start your own system and start to track it in your own thread. I'd be happy if your system did better than this one....but for now, i'll keep this one just as it is. It seems to be doing o.k..

For the record, "McDuck" turned me on to this system a while back. I doubted, but decided to start tracking it to see how it actually did. I am glad I did because it has helped me think about the market in a whole 'nother dimension, and my own luck has been better as a result.

Good luck.

 

[ILoveTDs]

Re: Last month's best fund method

Not a problem. After that post I did a couple "LMBF seasonal" and found that moving to the F Fund from 1 May to 1 Nov and doing LMBF the rest of the year out performed LMBF since 2003 (when we have share price data) by quite a bit. I'll look up the number tomorrow if I remember.

[TABLE="width: 117"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 35, bgcolor: #bfbfbf"]Year[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 55, bgcolor: #bfbfbf"]LMBF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 66, bgcolor: #bfbfbf"]May - Oct[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2003[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: yellow, align: right"]19.59%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2.82%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2004[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]16.95%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2005[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: yellow, align: right"]2.38%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-5.98%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2006[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]7.07%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]16.68%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2007[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]10.97%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]5.32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2008[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-11.06%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1.68%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2009[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]9.66%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-0.51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2010[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13.06%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]30.51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2011[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11.64%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]22.19%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[wavecoder]

Re: Last month's best fund method

I think out of all the TSP strategies, this one's the most intriguing. it seems like it's too simple to work, but sometimes simple is best

 

[Cactus]

Re: Last month's best fund method

From your figures it looks like "LMBF seasonal" came out ahead in: 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011
while LMBF came out ahead in: 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009.

This seams to be pretty much a draw if you ask me. I can't say one is really better than the other.

 

[tsp12man]

Re: Last month's best fund method

I just joined Friday. Can somebody tell me what the LMBF method is?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Re: Last month's best fund method

You can read the first post about the LMBF strategy at the beginning of this thread here.

 

[Cactus]

Re: Last month's best fund method

It's a simple Fund allocation strategy based on what did well last month. At the end of each month the monthly average is computed for the 5 Funds (G,F,C,S,I). The winner is choosen for next month and an IFT is made into that Fund (if it changed) before noon of the first day of the month. There will always be a 1 day lag between the monthly average and our allocation.

It's simple in that you only need to look at your TSP once a month to make an potential change. It is suposed to be suprizingly successful, but I'm just starting to look into it so I can't say much about that.

 

[wavecoder]

Re: Last month's best fund method

It's a simple Fund allocation strategy based on what did well last month. At the end of each month the monthly average is computed for the 5 Funds (G,F,C,S,I). The winner is choosen for next month and an IFT is made into that Fund (if it changed) before noon of the first day of the month. There will always be a 1 day lag between the monthly average and our allocation.

It's simple in that you only need to look at your TSP once a month to make an potential change. It is suposed to be suprizingly successful, but I'm just starting to look into it so I can't say much about that.

It looks like it's been successful for a while, and especially avoids some big losses in down years. probably won't win as much in good years as holding S/I funds, but you also won't get smashed if another 2008 happens by holding a losing fund too long.

but with that said, it's yearly returns for the most part look pretty nice and you'll end up winning in the long term with it. Percentages in parentheses are the C, S, and I funds respectively. From 2001-2007 alone, following this system would have doubled your balance

2001 5.16% (-11.94%, -9.04%, -21.94%)
2002 3.60% (-22.05%, -18.14%, -15.98%)
2003 34.22% (28.54%, 42.92%, 37.94%)
2004 14.86% (10.82%, 18.03%, 20.00%)
2005 5.92% (4.96%, 10.45%, 13.63%)
2006 8.18% (15.79%, 15.30%, 26.32%)
2007 13.31% (5.54%, 5.49%, 11.43%)
2008 -11.6% (-36.99%, -38.32%, -42.43%)
2009 16.04% (26.68%, 34.85%, 30.04%)
2010 17.17% (15.06%, 29.06%, 7.94%)
2011 12.22% (2.11%, -3.38%, -11.81%)
2012 19.27% (16.07%, 18.57%, 18.62%)