Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

[david.alan.williams]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

Congrats on a successful 2011 James!

 

[James48843]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

ok- I'm on travel today, so I'll have to wait till I get back tomorrow to get the full graphics and data here. But suffice it to say that- for the month of January, the "S" fund turned out the best, with a return far above any other fund.

So we officially go to 100% "S" fund, with an IFT triggered today, but it won't be effective until COB tomorrow. I'll post the stats when I get them figured out and can put a graphic up.


Last Month Best Fund (LMBF) method moves to 100% "S" COB tomorrow.

Enjoy!

 

[James48843]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

Here is the final January graphic-



In January 2012, the S fund was best, so we move tomorrow to 100% "S" fund allocation.

Good luck!

LMBF METHOD 2012 YEAR TO DATE RETURN: 2.92%

2011 return: 12.22%

2010 return: 12.85%

 

[James48843]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

Well, February ran pretty hot, until the last couple of days, where the runup stumbled a bit.

The Last Month's Best Fund method turned in another positive month, but by the end, it was "I", not "S", that turned in the best full month performance.

As a result, since today is the closing day, we find "I" as the best fund of February, and we trigger a move to move to "I", effective close of business tomorrow.

Here is the chart:



LMBF year to date return for 2012: 5.91% so far.

2011 return: 12.22%

2010 return: 12.85%

 

[Rifleman]

Re: Last month best fund method

I think I might follow this method. Does the switch need to be exactly on the 1st day of the month?

 

[matrix452]

Re: Last month best fund method

On the first of the month I wasn't able to make the transfer in time. It would have been on the second, so I deviated from the LMBF method and kept my stuff in the S Fund because I didn't like what the I fund was doing. I know we still have a week before the next transfer, but I'm glad I did! While it's looking like the April's transfer will be to the C Fund, the S Fund isn't doing too bad.

 

[James48843]

Re: Last month best fund method

I think I might follow this method. Does the switch need to be exactly on the 1st day of the month?

This thread tracks data based on the end of the month, yes. You can do it whatever date you want, and your results will vary. Your decision on where to put your money is yours- no one else knows you, your risk tolerance, your future goals, or what you would like to do with your money. That's purely up to you.

 

[Rifleman]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

I have another question, please remember my Newbness, will it mess things up if I keep like 30 in the G fund and then move my other 70 around doing to last months best fund? Or am I over thinking it?

 

[Sensei]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

I have another question, please remember my Newbness, will it mess things up if I keep like 30 in the G fund and then move my other 70 around doing to last months best fund? Or am I over thinking it?

That would be a more conservative way to handle your account. The 30% in G would always be safe from losses, but wouldn't make any money for you either. As far as whether it would "mess things up", you would probably think so if the LMBF was making money, but wouldn't think so if it was losing. You would end up with a different return, yes.

After getting frustrated by the market last year, I thought I might follow this system this year. Others suggested I use it as an indicator to consider when making my own decisions. That's how I use this and the Sentiment Survey now. I don't follow them exactly, but take them into account when deciding what to do with my money. I also look at whether the market is bull or bear, and where the S&P's daily price is in relation to the major moving averages (20, 50, & 200 days). It's a lot to think about when you're new. Good luck!

 

[Mapper]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

Rifleman, if you keep some money in G it means that money is not in equities, "out of risk". If markets move up, you'll make less (about 30% less given your example). If markets move down, you'll lose less (again, about 30%). The G fund is considered a cash equivalent and will keep your value in real $$s.

 

[James48843]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

LAST MONTH BEST FUND: for March 31, 2012

Well, we HAD been in the "I" fund in March, as a result of February's data. Once again it shows that chasing return isn't always the best path. But we did get a positive return for the month, although only a small one.

For March, it turns out "C" was the best performer, earning over 3%, so we will initiate an IFT to move from the "I" fund to the "C" fund, and we'll hope for some more positive stuff.

Be careful out there.

 

[James48843]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

Well, this isn't very nice. The "Last Month Best Fund" method didn't look so good in April after all.

For April we finish up with a falling C fund, and that means we slip back at bit.

The best fund for April was the "F" fund. So...of course, we'll move INTO "F" effective at the close of business tomorrow.

A IFT trade then out of "C" fund, and into "F" fund is called for.



Moving to the "F" fund before noon tomorrow, effective COB tomorrow afternoon.

Good luck.

(LMBF method return for 2012 right now is positive +5.74% for the year)

 

[Rifleman]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

What is the best way to see the best performing fund for the month of May? I keep pulling up 1day, 5day, then 3 month or yearly, I have a feeling I am not looking in the right place, it shouldn't be this hard...

 

[ILoveTDs]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

F Fund was best fund in May at 0.91%

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

What is the best way to see the best performing fund for the month of May? I keep pulling up 1day, 5day, then 3 month or yearly, I have a feeling I am not looking in the right place, it shouldn't be this hard...

TSP Share Prices

 

[James48843]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

Foregive me Father for I have sinned, and failed to post the LAST MONTH BEST FUND results for May before the noon deadline.

That's ok, because this time there is NO CHANGE.

For May, the "F" fund once again was the best of the pack. Meaning NO IFT this month, and continued success using the LAST MONTH BEST FUND method.


Stays put in "F" - no IFT needed.

Enjoy.



Sorry I wasn't paying close attention. I SHOULD be following this myself. Instead. I suckered myself into thinking the S fund was good, so I'm personally a bit bloody right now. I have GOT to get myself some LMBF discipline!



LMBF method return for 2012 right now is positive +7.43% for the year and on a roll! )

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

Foregive me Father for I have sinned, and failed to post the LAST MONTH BEST FUND results for May before the noon deadline.

Say 2 Hail Mary's and you shall be absolved.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

I suckered myself into thinking the S fund was good, so I'm personally a bit bloody right now. I have GOT to get myself some LMBF discipline!

We all need some discipline, or a stock market history book from the year 2100

 

[Rifleman]

Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method talk

Thanks, I was starting to sweat a little when I couldn't find the right total, thanks for that. I am relieved to see that we stay in the same fund this month, it's the first time I have been on time!

 

[Sensei]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

Unless there is a very strange day on the Street today, it looks like the LMBF method will move to the I-fund. Does anyone out there have any data on I-fund returns for the months after which it is the monthly leader? I'm just curious as to how often the I-fund has been the best fund two months consecutively. I'm betting not often.