Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

[Hallatauer]

Good month for the I Fund... and all ready a good start for February! And this with the chaos in Epgyt.

 

[James48843]

Happy end of February.

Last month-Best Month method moves this month- the "I" fund was good, but "S" fund was better, so in the morning we'll place a trade to move from "I" to "S" again.

How much longer will this trend last? Who knows? Not me. So we'll go with the momentum.

Here's the data for February- showing "S" in the lead:

View attachment 10694

Making the move to "S" in the morning. Happy investing.
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[Sensei]

Hi - I just discovered this thread/system tonight. Very intriguing!

I've been following the Sentiment Survey for the last several months, and am committed to see one system through for at least a year. But I'll be following this as a comparison. Thanks for sharing!

 

[McDuck]

Two month report card for my LMBF:

In 14-th place out of 718 on the autotracker.

Present return: 6.38% Yearly projection: 38.28% !!!

 

[Soupguy]

Looks like its the S Fund for April.

http://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.html

 

[sippinjoes]

YAY...don't have to move anything!!

 

[James48843]

Yes- officially the "Last Month Best Month" method remains fully invested in the "S" fund. The March gain was 2.06%, and for the year to date, we're at 7.99%.

LMBM Method stays in "S" for another month.

good luck.

View attachment 10858​

 

[James48843]

Well, well, well.

April turned out pretty good. We were up 2.94% for the month in the S fund. Last Month's Best Fund strategy continues to do well.

However, there was a different fund that performed better.

Which means, according to the Last Month Best Month method, it's time to shift our money.


View attachment 11002


Since the best fund for the month of April was the International fund (Up 6.03% for April) , we'll put in an IFT request on the LMBM Method for Monday, to move the balance into the I fund for May. Yes, it's chasing today, but that's what the LMBM method does- it sees each month which fund did best the month before, and it goes to that fund the next trading day after the month's close.

So it's IFT Monday to "I" fund.

Good luck.

 

[jpcavin]

Hey James

This system looks very impressive.Has anyone done any back testing for Last Month 2nd Best Fund? I read something on this thread about catching the gains a little late? Was curious how picking the 2nd best last month would fair.

 

[James48843]

Hey James

This system looks very impressive.Has anyone done any back testing for Last Month 2nd Best Fund? I read something on this thread about catching the gains a little late? Was curious how picking the 2nd best last month would fair.

Uh, yes, I think someone else at one time did some data on 2nd month. Use the "search button" up at the top bar and you might find something. But this thread isn't about 2nd month- it's about "Last month best fund".

Personally I found the "Last month best fund method" strategy to be interesting and decided to start tracking it just to see how it does. I am impressed enough myself to include it in my own real money allocation thinking.

If you are interested in tracking 2nd month, or any other system you like, you are always welcome to start your own system, start posting the moves, and then, after you get some history to start with, you are welcome to ask Tom to allow you to start an auto-tracker account to track it in.

Good luck.

 

[jpcavin]

But this thread isn't about 2nd month- it's about "Last month best fund".

It was just a question. Seems several questions were asked at the start of this thread. Wasn't aware it was closed to more questions.

 

[philcam]

Ouch! I Fund down -2.90%

Looks like June is the F fund at 1.31%

 

[James48843]

That's what is says-

Last Month Best Month method says - move to "F" fund for June. IFT before noon today.

 

[James48843]

Here are June's results-

Last Month Best Month strategy moving to "G" fund today.

It came back a little, but stocks still ended up the month of June in the red.



LMBM is IFT'ing into "G" fund before noon today.

Good luck.

 

[alevin]

I just noticed autotracker follows LMBM method. reason I looked was I just now discovered a commercial tracking site that uses this method for tsp people, only they want to charge a nominal monthly fee for the pleasure. I almost hit the button to sign up before I realized their angle. oops, pays to read everything you can first before committing. main reason I thought of signing up and abandoning SS was they show a nice chart comparing performance of the LMBM strategy against each of the individual tsp funds, all the way back to 2000, and also a 3 year chart. no comparison current year or 1-year performance chart tho.

 

[tsptalk]

main reason I thought of signing up and abandoning SS was they show a nice chart comparing performance of the LMBM strategy against each of the individual tsp funds, all the way back to 2000, and also a 3 year chart. no comparison current year or 1-year performance chart tho.

I guess I better create a nice chart showing the SS return. We'll just need to require followers to wear helmets and seatbelts.

 

[alevin]

I guess I better create a nice chart showing the SS return. We'll just need to require followers to wear helmets and seatbelts.

:nuts: wasnt the chart per se, simply how it contrasted LMBM performance relative to B&H of all the indiv. funds over the past 2 recessions, 10-year perf. and 3year perf. I looked to see if could find 3-year cumulative perf. stats for SS to see how it compared to LMBM 3-year perf. but could only find one-year at a time stats for SS. hard to compare longterm performance between the 2. I know I know, if I'd just blindly follow SS w/o question and hang in during times of doubt, I'd be so happy with performance I'd never ever look at anythiing else. stickypants thy name is Birchtree.

 

[James48843]

Well, another month has come and gone. For the month of July, it looks like the "F" fund is the winner.

So we'll be shifting the pot from "G" to "F" , with an IFT placed before noon tomorrow.



Since we've been bumping around so much, perhaps it's time we get a break, and see some recovery in stocks again.

"F" fund for August, and cross fingers that we've seen the end of the summer blues.

Good luck.

Last-month-best-month goes to "F" now.

 

[bfranklin03]

Contribution Allocation Questions

Hello,

I am new to this forum, and very new to the idea of using a strategy for TSP investing, and up to this point, I have had 100% in L 2040. My question is about the contribution allocation for future contributions. Does it change whenever an IFT is made at the beginning of the month, or does the contribution allocation always stay the same? I searched the forum for the answer but didn't have any luck. Thanks.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

Welcome! The contribution allocation stays the same until you change it. It's the allocat8ion of your account balance that changes if you are in multiple funds. If you have always been in the L2040, that will always stay the same. It's when you use multiple funds that you will see it change. But again, the contribution allocation will not change until you change it.