Kaufmanrider's Account Talk

[Kaufmanrider]

Up and down, up and down, where we go, does anybody know?

I have been sitting in the Lilypad trying to figure this thing out. Been a few days I wish I was in, but then the next is a day I was glad I was out.
Either way, I am out if IFT's in my TSP, but outside of TSP I have been flat this month.

Finally opened a brokerage account with Schwab last week. Signed up for the active trader StreetsmartEdge trading platform. Very interesting program. They even called
and gave me about an hour on-line training via telephone. Still playing with it, but I'll be buying and selling soon as I get more comfortable with it. I like the idea of trailing stops for both
buys and sells.

Dividend stocks maybe? Or some micro stocks? Maybe a little of both. Time will tell.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

So I have been watching a micro stock, should have bought, it has taken off the past week.

Watching some dividend stocks, plugged them into an algorithym system a subscribe to for the heck of it, Most of them are Dog's of the Dow, but I threw in Lowes in place of Home Depot, as my wife works there.
Friday morning had a buy for Lowes. Almost bought, didn't. Figured Jobs came in low, I'd wait for a drop and then buy the stock. End of the day, market was down, Lowes was up .97% Go figure. Maybe because they have a .16 per share dividend to holder of stock coming on July 25?


In my TSP account I am sitting in the Lily Pad looking for an entry point. Might come soon????

 

[ILoveTDs]

I held LOW for years. You'll never get anything more from them then a dividend, but if you're only interested in the dividend they are a strong stock to hold.

 

[Birchtree]

I bought some Turfbuilder at Lowes today - they had so much vegetation out front I could hardly find the entrance to the plant and garden section. I have a nice profit accumulated in HD so I'll hang on to that one.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

After siting in the lily pad all month I used my first ift yesterday and jumped into the s fund. Hopefully I can end the month with some gains. So far this morning it is looking good. My concern is todays bounce is emotion driven on Euro comments. Will it hold?

 

[kburke69]

Should have went all in on I fund

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Should have went all in on I fund

Shoulda, coulda, woulda......bottom line is 'what's different about Europe from yesterday to today?' Answer: NOTHING!! As Kaufmanrider said, 'My concern is todays bounce is emotion driven on Euro comments. Will it hold?'.

Anyone who had I fund already, should just take the money and run!! The I fund prompt jump will not hold, IMO. :nuts:

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Should have went all in on I fund

Yes, but I am up 3.25% for my S fund move. I'll take it. Almost exited Friday. Little did I know it would rocket up after our IFT deadline. Hopefully I can pick an exit point Monday or Tuesday that will lock in my gains for the month. Leaving for Sturgis on Wednesday and I don't want to have to worry about my returns. I'll start the month in G or maybe F and worry about C,S, and I when I get back in a few weeks.

Just found a new strategy from a gentleman on the AAII Discussion Forum. Not for TSP, but maybe my IRA or Brokerage account. Looks interesting, based on Seasonality, i.e, buy in Oct, Sell in April.


Dogs of the Season - the investment strategy that beats the Street

 

[bmneveu]

Yes, but I am up 3.25% for my S fund move. I'll take it. Almost exited Friday. Little did I know it would rocket up after our IFT deadline. Hopefully I can pick an exit point Monday or Tuesday that will lock in my gains for the month. Leaving for Sturgis on Wednesday and I don't want to have to worry about my returns. I'll start the month in G or maybe F and worry about C,S, and I when I get back in a few weeks.

Just found a new strategy from a gentleman on the AAII Discussion Forum. Not for TSP, but maybe my IRA or Brokerage account. Looks interesting, based on Seasonality, i.e, buy in Oct, Sell in April.


Dogs of the Season - the investment strategy that beats the Street

I bookmarked that page, thanks . And congrats on the gains. I do the same when I deploy -- Sit in G, and hope I don't miss out on too many good entry opportunities!

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I made all my transactions this morning. I'll be spending the day getting packed and household chores done so the wife won't have to do much while I am gone, i.e., pay bills, yard work, clean pool, etc.

Moved both my kids ROTH's from Schwab small cap to Schwab AGG. Nice little gain. Sold my TNA for a nice profit and moved into Schwab AGG.

Moved my TSP from S to F. I figure August is good for bonds, and I'll be sitting in them for about 2 1/2 weeks.

Hopefully I find a good entry point later in the month.

I'll be out for a while. Trade safe.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Back from Sturgis. It was an awesome vacation/break. Now to look to make some money so I can pay off the debt in incurred Beer was expensive.

Been in the F fund, not doing to well, down .37% for the month. I'll be looking for a good entry it get a quick percent or two. Maybe I should have stayed in equities while on vacation instead of bailing? The algorithm at Sector Surfer gave a buy for the C fund on Aug. 1.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

So, if I am reading this response correctly our 12 month PIP includes contributions? It is from Tammy Flanagan and I saw it on the Gov Exec website as an answer to a question about the 12 month PIP.

TSP returns do include the cash flows into and out of your account. According to the TSP’s glossary of terms, “personal investment performance” is defined as follows: “The rate of return earned by your entire account during the 12-month period ending on the date indicated on your annual statement or on your account balance page of the TSP website. The PIP is a time-weighted return that has been calculated using a modified Deitz method (a method used by many financial institutions and an industry standard). The PIP adjusts for the distorting effects of cash flows into or out of your account. It is an estimate; therefore, your PIP may not be the same as the 12-month performance of the TSP funds, which are time-weighted returns.”

 

[craigerv]

The PIP is an estimate. Contributions distort your true annual return so the PIP tries to estimate and account for it. Someone who just started their account can have their return greatly distorted by their contributions but as you continue to grow the account, the contributions affect the return less and less (unless you're losing all your money!). In my opinion, I find it more useful to know the exact return but using the PIP allows your return to be comparable to others because everyone uses the same formula.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

As the year ends I sit 60-I and 40-S, hoping for a fiscal cliff bounce/rush. And I'll probably start the year with the same allocation. or do I move to G and start the month/New Year fresh?

The long term trend is still up for both, but the short term? A fiscal cliff deal would probably give us a short term bounce.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

OK, its done. I opted to move 100% G and lock in my 2012 gains. About 11%, not counting what today brings?

I want to relax New Years and not worry about the Fiscal Cliff and the markets.

I'll start the year in the Lilly Pad and watch for a good buy in opportunity.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I moved in 100% I today. Figured with it being a down day for the I Fund it was a good time to buy in. And with Japan being closed since the fiscal cliff deal was signed, I expected them
to launch off and join in the buying frenzy.

I jumped in Emerging Markets in my brokerage account.

We shall see.

 

[BigJohn]

I moved in 100% I today. Figured with it being a down day for the I Fund it was a good time to buy in. And with Japan being closed since the fiscal cliff deal was signed, I expected them
to launch off and join in the buying frenzy.

I jumped in Emerging Markets in my brokerage account.

We shall see.

For what it is worth, I think you made a great move.

Good luck tomorrow...

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I have been holding the I-Fund, but for some reason (Euro-Dollar) it has been slightly down the past two days, even though the EAFE Fund has been positive. My Internationl ETF in my brokerage account has been on the plus side these
same two days.

F fund looks like it might be hitting a buy. The closing price yesterday closed just above the 15 day and the 5 day is getting read to cross above the 11 day. I also see the Chaikin money flow is turning up. Long term (66 day EMA) is still down. Maybe a move in till the end of the month?

I'll watch the morning and decide. Got one IFT left for the month.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Glad I held off on the F Fund. Kept my I fund allocation. Tomorrow, depending on the SS results I might move into the S fund for next week. Or course if we have another good up day in the I fund
I'll lock in some gains and move half or more off the table sit back and relax until Feb and 2 new IFT's?

The F fund, 5 day dropped below 11 and both are under the 22 day. 50 day EMA and SMA is getting ready to cross under the 200 day EMA and SMA. Death Cross????

The Front Weighted 50 day Moving average dropped under the 200 a month ago.

So where would I go, F fund which looks like a loser or do I give the Government some more money to pay the bills in exchange for an IOU and no interest while I sit in the Lillypad?

Decisions, Decisions. And all before a long weekend with the Debt Limit just around the corner.

I'll sleep on it tonight.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Moved 50S and 50 I. I am thinking a few more up days and then I'll look to lock in. Gotta play the trend and it is up.