Kaufmanrider's Account Talk

[Show-me]

Very, very nice.

 

[coastalite]

Not to brag, but i am 105 on the tracker. Not bad given the returns on C, S and I this year. I'll take it. Anything positive this year is a great.

Nice job for the year so far!

I just pulled my 25%F and moved it to G so it's now 50G/25C/25S till next month. Part of my 2012 strategy will be to follow the top 50 and try to see what the heck they are doing.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I entered the market on Wednesday. Holding on tell next week. Up 2.03% on the month, I was tempted to exit, or at least take some off the top Friday and move it to the lilly pad, but this might be the Santa Rally and I'll hold on and watch the market after Christmas to decide what I'll do. on the PF Chart, one day reversal chart, we had a double top breakout on December 22, which followed my entry. This is more of a short term chart, the 3 day Intermediate) is also close to a breakout. I am watching for a breakout on it.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I exited the markets Wednesday, up 2.25% on the month, 8.25% on the year.

Looking for a better year next year and I'll use more discipline if I get 1-2% on a move and exit to the lilly-pad to lock in my gains.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Well I after sitting on the sidelines at the beginning of the month I decided to jump in on Tuesday for Wednesday. The PF Chart showed a double top breakout for the SP500, so I made my move, albeit a day after the breakout. Up about .9%, not bad. Close to my monthly goal of 1-2%. Hopefully we have a good day today after the releans of the Chicago Sentiment. I'd like to get out closer to the upper end of my monthly goal. Than its either off to the lillypad, or maybe some into the F fund as I think it still has some room to go. We will see today as we closer to our IFT deadline.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Looks like today I am getting back what I lost on Friday of last week. Should be just about 1% for the month at the close, if we hold today. I'll take some off the table and will move from 100% S to 50% F, 25% C and 25% S. The long term algorithm I follow/subscribe to still has C/S as neck and neck as the best funds to be in. Actually C fund is their preferred fund.

I tracked the algorithm's return last year returned just over 6 percent. I backtested the signals to 2005 (using the excel chart from TSPTalk) and I was impressed. Great returns. Not one negative year. So I am thinking I'll go long on the algorithm signal with half, swing trade (one buy in a month) with the other. By the way, it got out of the market before the last crash and stayed in G for a year before buying back in on the Bull run following.

Time will tell.

 

[MaStA]

Looks like today I am getting back what I lost on Friday of last week. Should be just about 1% for the month at the close, if we hold today. I'll take some off the table and will move from 100% S to 50% F, 25% C and 25% S. The long term algorithm I follow/subscribe to still has C/S as neck and neck as the best funds to be in. Actually C fund is their preferred fund.

I tracked the algorithm's return last year returned just over 6 percent. I backtested the signals to 2005 (using the excel chart from TSPTalk) and I was impressed. Great returns. Not one negative year. So I am thinking I'll go long on the algorithm signal with half, swing trade (one buy in a month) with the other. By the way, it got out of the market before the last crash and stayed in G for a year before buying back in on the Bull run following.

Time will tell.

It looks like the 2pm sell off is killing everything we thought we were going to make today...blah!

 

[Kaufmanrider]

It looks like the 2pm sell off is killing everything we thought we were going to make today...blah!

O well. There is always tomorrow? I think longer term (next 3-6 months) we will be alright. We had the golden cross, companies are still making a profit, some bigger than others, unemployment is going down, and sentiment/consumer confidence is climbing.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I moved my 50% stake out of stocks and into the Lily Pad Friday. Keeping the other half in F, but that might change Monday. With the Chinese and other foreign investors not buying as many bonds rates may continue to climb. I have made the lower end of my goal, 1-2 percent a month, and I don't want to risk losing it. I was getting greedy and trying to milk some more, but the risk is greater than I want. This market is a strange beast. Plus, too many indicators reaching overbought levels, and too much bullish sentiment.

It's hard to sit back and watch everyone else on the Tracker Menu make money and push me lower on the tracker. But I am postive, and I am too close to retirement eligibility to take any risk for big losses in my TSP. I have to remind myself the stock market doesn't end, this isn't a race to the finish line and everything stops. It simply continues up, down, and sideways. Next month is a new month and stocks will keep moving. If I can learn to buy in and get 1-2 a month (and not get greedy-take risk), it'll help my retirement drawdown. I want to withdraw at least 4 percent annually, and the more I can gain, the bigger my 4% (or higher percentage draw down) will be. I look at it as a COLA each year.

Here is a good little marketwatch video on greed and the markets.

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/as...investor/EA584FC5-DA9F-4FDD-8CB9-1CACDC2088C2

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I have been slowly inching up, thanks to my 50% in the F fund. I am up 1.5% for the month. Right in my target range of 1-2 percent a month. Yes, I wish I would have stayed in and made more, but who knows what this market will do.

I almost got out of the F fund but watching the chart I saw a possible head and shoulders forming with an upward move for the
right shoulder. With the contribution going in last week, split between C and S, I did a 1% move to 50 G, 48 F, 1 C and 1 S.

I think the F fund might work it's way down this week on the right shoulder and test the support line. Question is, do I get out (and back in the F fund when/if it bounces off support) as we are near the end of the month with 2 fresh IFT's coming, or do I ride the wave down and back up. I'll watch Monday and decide.

And on the SPX, I watch the simple moving average, and the 50 day is just about ready to cross the 200 day, the Golden Cross?. Might be a signal to go long with some of my TSP and swing trade the rest?

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Been a while since I posted on my account I have been in the S fund all month. I am thinking I should have gotten out friday. Why? Because of the vix.

Tom has mentioned it in his commentary, but not much discussion on the forum. , I read where when the markets get complacent and the vix drops down below 15 it's time to look to get out. Twelve would be a screaming sale. And it did touch thirteen the other day. Monday I might take my profits and run.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I moved out of the S fund on Monday, expecting a 3-5 percent correction. I think the SP500 will get to about 1380 before a rebound. Why it has not happened yet?

Well, I think Apple has been keeping the stock markets up. It's about a third of the Nasdaq by itself . Well, late today Apple finally started to fall off, and the markets fell off the cliff with it. I'll be looking for a good entry point in a few days, maybe middle of next week.

Let's see what the unemployment claims do to the markets in the morning.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

It's been awhile since I posted on my talk thread. Put my foot in the waters in May for a few days and I almost drowned. Got out with a 2%+ loss early on and
moved to the F fund. Been sitting there ever since. Of late the F fund has narrowed my May loss to under 2% and I enter June standing on what I hope is dry ground in
the F fund. Waiting for my buy in oportunity. Maybe today after the jobs report? Who knows, but that late day sell off yesterday during the last 10 minutes has me concerned
something leaked, and looking at China and EU data this morning things just don't look good for the home team (US).

An algorithm I use flipped to a buy F fund last night, it is a longer term trend system, i.e., weeks to months.

Good luck to those following the survey, or not, that are still in the market.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

[h=1]I saw this on Market Watch. Glad I am in the F fund for now.

Watch for avalanche of sell orders Monday[/h]June 1, 2012, 6:11 PM

Monday’s trading will be the first opportunity stock investors in the U.S. will have to act on a major technical violation that occurred at Friday’s close: The breaking of the 200-day moving average.
This could result in an avalanche of sell signals hitting the market at Monday’s open, since many technical analysts use the 200-day moving average as the dividing line between bull and bear markets. They consider the primary trend to be up so long as the market is trading above its 200-day moving average, and that this trend turns to bearish whenever the market closes below this average—and that is what happened at Friday’s close.
Though the market doesn’t always fall off a cliff upon breaking the 200-day moving average, that certainly is what happened the last time the market broke this key technical level.
That occurred last Aug. 2, on which day the S&P 500 closed at 1,251.46. At its intra-day low just one week later, on Aug. 9, the S&P stood 150 points lower at 1101.54—an extraordinary decline of 12% in just five trading sessions.
Traders beware.
-Mark Hulbert

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I went all in with the S fund on Tuesday. Almost moved out to lock in my gains. Didn't. Let's see what today brings. Big Ben speaking this morning,

On a side note, I hit 101 on the tracker.

 

[Khotso]

I went all in with the S fund on Tuesday. Almost moved out to lock in my gains. Didn't. Let's see what today brings. Big Ben speaking this morning,

On a side note, I hit 101 on the tracker.

Congratulations -- good move and timing on your part K-rider. Thought seriously about it myself but in the end didn't based on my typical low-risk nature being soi close to retirement. Ugh!! Like they say, got to play to win, right?

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Congratulations -- good move and timing on your part K-rider. Thought seriously about it myself but in the end didn't based on my typical low-risk nature being soi close to retirement. Ugh!! Like they say, got to play to win, right?

How close? I am now under 1 year from Eligibility, June 5, 2013. I am looking to increase my returns, but now I am second guessing staying in. My fingers are crossed.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

So I moved in on Wednesday, got the big bounce up over 2% in the S fund, thought about getting out but held on. Thursday I was going to lock in my gains, but it was a down day, I stayed in. Friday looked flat to slightly higher at IFT time so I bailed. S fund moved up and made up for Thursday's loss plus some. Used my second IFT and bailed back to the F fund, which is where I started the month. Not sure about the EU and Spanish deal this weekend, and Greek elections are getting to close for comfort. Locked in my gains and I'll ride the F maybe for the rest of the month, as they say, sell in May and go away. I believe historically Bonds do good in June/July/August. We shall see.

Good luck to those that stayed in equities.

 

[nasa1974]

View attachment 19161

Not sure about the EU and Spanish deal this weekend, and Greek elections are getting to close for comfort. Locked in my gains and I'll ride the F maybe for the rest of the month, as they say, sell in May and go away. I believe historically Bonds do good in June/July/August. We shall see.

Good luck to those that stayed in equities.

Greece has me a little nervous as well. But I'm not sure if the market may not have some built in bad news. In other words if Greece elections are what is expected than the market may not react badly. But if the news is way off center, well anything is game. It looks like the weekend news might play well with the market at least for Monday and maybe Tuesday. There is a game plan for Spain if needed. It is up to Spain now. But yeah, we could use a little luck.

As far as the "F" fund for June it may be a good place to be for the rest of the month. Last year it was down .3% for June but 2011 was a +1.56% and 2010 was a +.54%.
Here are the June numbers courtesy of Govexec.com

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Might be emotions that push the market Monday. It's a loan to the banks to raise capital. The Spanish Government still has issues. And what are the details on the loan? I think it is just a band-aid that may not stick too long.

Good luck.

View attachment 19161

Greece has me a little nervous as well. But I'm not sure if the market may not have some built in bad news. In other words if Greece elections are what is expected than the market may not react badly. But if the news is way off center, well anything is game. It looks like the weekend news might play well with the market at least for Monday and maybe Tuesday. There is a game plan for Spain if needed. It is up to Spain now. But yeah, we could use a little luck.

As far as the "F" fund for June it may be a good place to be for the rest of the month. Last year it was down .3% for June but 2011 was a +1.56% and 2010 was a +.54%.
Here are the June numbers courtesy of Govexec.com