Kaufmanrider's Account Talk

[Kaufmanrider]

I happened across a Youtube video from HS Dent last night. He posted a new one. He is expecting the SP to drop to about 1000, or a tad lower, but than a last rise to 1220, almost 25% before the rug gets pulled out for a while. Personally, I hope I can catch a ride like that, not down to 1000, but up to 1220. It'll be interesting to watch the action the rest of the month until I get some new IFT's. Damn TSP????

 

[polarbear]

Thanks for the info, HS Dent, I'll look him up. There's not necessarily any stop sign at 1090. We'll see. And it can always reverse.

Just saw a guy on CNBC TV saying the strangest thing. Something about a bank deposit tax so sellers are not selling in earnest, over the weekend, I don't get it. Some things actually do come in from left field, but worrying about what some suit says on CNBC TV just isn't worth it. The clowns (invited ones) on that show are the ones who say their stuff with a straight face.

I looked up HS Dent. Very interesting.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Moved into the F fund on Sept 1, effective Sep 2. Figure I'd play the history card. Stocks do poorly in September, F fund (bonds) tend to have good returns in September. Might move some into stocks at some point, but might not? We will see.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Moved 50% F, 50% S today. Hoping to catch another day or two of the uptrend before I move my S fund investment into G fund. I'll keep F fund for the month as Sept. is the best month for it.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Move all in the G fund. No IFT's and F fund (AGG) doesn't look to good going forward. Hopefully next month I will do better. Down 1% for the year. Not good, but compared to the tracker menu, seems I have done alright.

Watching the SPX, I see the a descending triangle, if so, it appears to be heading towards it's end. I am no chart technician, still learning, just my observation.

 

[Bquat]

Move all in the G fund. No IFT's and F fund (AGG) doesn't look to good going forward. Hopefully next month I will do better. Down 1% for the year. Not good, but compared to the tracker menu, seems I have done alright.

Watching the SPX, I see the a descending triangle, if so, it appears to be heading towards it's end. I am no chart technician, still learning, just my observation.

View attachment 15488

Nice chart. Thanks

 

[Kaufmanrider]

After the last few days I am wondering why I sold my F Fund holdings? O'well. You live and learn. Here is what I see on the charts?

Still trying to learn, so maybe some folks with more knowledge and correct me if I have it wrong?

I still see the descending triangle. The original Bear Flag turned into a trading channel, but now the channel appears to be tightening into the triangle's lines which are acting as resistance.

Volume increased slightly the last couple days, are we due for the breakout down? I'll sit on the side and watch for now. We are about 2/3's through the triangle so something should give?

On the weekly bar chart I see the same descending triangle. And monthly or course we are on the way down the past few months.

Weekly SPX Chart:

.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Took the plunge today. 100% S fund. Hoping for a quick rally, than out. Worst case, I go long as prices seem like a bargain.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Going to lock in some gains. Moved 30% g, 35% c, and 35% s.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Moved 50G, 30C, 20S, for today. Moving 95G, 3C, 2S, at close of business tomorrow since TSP is closed today.

Traveling to fort benning to watch my son graduate from Infantry School.

 

[Birchtree]

Airborne - All the Way

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Up, up, up we go. But like they say, what goes up must come down. Question is when?

I just did a <1% move increasing my equities, now 93-G, 4-C and 3-S. If Monday is up, might do
it again. This is the third year of a Presidential Cycle which historically is an up year, and Nov/Dec are
historically some of the best months to be in stocks. Might just have to leave 10-15 percent in as buy and hold till
the end of the year while I try and time a big move each month with my other 85-90 percent.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Jumped ship. Pulled my little 4 and 3 percent out and moved them into G with the rest of my funds.

I have a bad feeling Greece is going to get cut and European Banks are gonna take a hit.

Good luck to everyone still riding stocks.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

November is here and time to pick my entry date. I guess my prediction on the Euro causing the markets to drop was about a week late. I guess folks
last week were looking for any reason to buy. My thinking was whether the Europeans passed something or not, it wouldn't be good. After something passed, everyone came out of the
woodwork and bought. Now they see the deal was not the end all to save all. Anyway, I did get a healthy gain last month and I am positive for the year.

I am not greedy, looking for another percent of two for November and to the lilypad I will return.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

After sitting in G this month I decided to play the drop yesterday and hope for a bounce. Moved in 50C/50S for today. Locked in some of the gains today with my second IFT to 40G, 10F, 30C, 10S, 10I. I'll sit through the weekend with this allocation and hope for more upside Friday and Monday. Come on Italy and Greece, give us something to move the markets then I'll bail to the lilly pad and watch the US Super committee game.

A percent of so a month will get me 12% a year. More than I need, but I'll take more if I can get it.

I will be up over 5% for the year when numbers post tonight, my 12 month return as of Nov 3, is 6.93%. Not the 8-12% goal I have, but close. Anything positive is better than negative.

 

[Bronco07]

Agreed ..... anything positive is better than negative. I have a ways to go to get positive with 2 months remaining .... cheers

 

[nasa1974]

Just a reminder:

HOLIDAY CLOSING
Some financial markets will be closed on Friday, November 11th in observance of Veterans' Day.The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Therefore, transactions that would have been processed Friday night (November 11th) will be processed Monday night (November 14th) at Monday's closing share prices.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Been watching stocks drop lately. I went in earlier in the month, moved half out on the 10th, but should have moved all out the next day. I was up
1.6% which met my monthly goal of 1-2 percent a month. Got greedy? Figured I'd stay part way in due to Nov/Dec historically being the best months
for stocks, and the 3rd year of a Presidential Cycle being positive for many, many cycles. Well, I am now down about 2% on the month, but I am hoping for a
bounce the next few days and into December.

At least I am still positive on the auto tracker for the year.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Moved out Dec 1, 100% F fund effective Dec 2. I'll watch the markets for another entry point. Maybe this week.

Didn't make as much as I could have in Nov, but I was up over 1%. Well within my goal of 1-2% a month.
I would have had more but I got greedy and stayed in and rode the ride down and back up.

Discipline. Discipline. Discipline.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Still maintaining my position in the F fund. Just not sure when and if we will have a Christmas Rally. But I haven't done to
bad, up 1.04% so far on the month. Hopefully the F fund doesn't fall off the cliff. Still a tad below it's high for the year so there
could be a little room up. PF Chart shows a Bullish PO of 118. Wouldn't that be great to see?

Getting close to Christmas, if I don't see anything favorable soon I might just lock in and move to the G fund, I just need to hold my 1% F Fund gain. I just need to gauge the risk and hold my discipline.

The actual rally is the last 5 days of the month, if there is one.

Not to brag, but i am 105 on the tracker. Not bad given the returns on C, S and I this year. I'll take it. Anything positive this year is a great.