Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
I think the tracker has a bug. Unless someone really did make over 20% today.
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
K0nKuzh0n's Account Talk
- Thread starter k0nkuzh0n
- Start date
I think the tracker has a bug. Unless someone really did make over 20% today.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
He's ALIVE !!!
Hey K, how have things been?
Hey K, how have things been?
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
If I was asked that prior to the new year, I would have said GREAT! But since 2013 I have: Killed my Galaxy S3, Returned from vacation to find my car battery dead which took an hour and a half to get it replaced, and this morning I broke my passenger side mirror backing out of the garage.
I've been around, mostly reading. I've been crazy busy the past few months and haven't had much time to post much of anything
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
If I was asked that prior to the new year, I would have said GREAT! But since 2013 I have: Killed my Galaxy S3, Returned from vacation to find my car battery dead which took an hour and a half to get it replaced, and this morning I broke my passenger side mirror backing out of the garage.
I've been around, mostly reading. I've been crazy busy the past few months and haven't had much time to post much of anything
Glad to hear 2012 was great, but sorry to hear about so much happening this year... I guess it could only get better
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
Quick tidbits for the DOW:
*DOW has reached above 14k on 12 days.
*Closed above 14k 5 times
*The dow hasn't closed above 14k for 2 consecutive days this year, which means there are 3 days that the DOW reached 14k mid day (opened below 14k) and failed to close above 14k. (12 days total - 5 closes - 4 days after closing = 3 days)
*Each day was followed by a loss (in %) of: 0.926 (2/1), 0.2553(2/13), 0.77(2/19), 1.546 (2/22), today?!?
*Days between (Trading days) each: 12(7) days, 6 (4) days, 3(3) days, and 5(3) days.
Today may be the first time we close above 14k for a consecutive days.
*DOW has reached above 14k on 12 days.
*Closed above 14k 5 times
*The dow hasn't closed above 14k for 2 consecutive days this year, which means there are 3 days that the DOW reached 14k mid day (opened below 14k) and failed to close above 14k. (12 days total - 5 closes - 4 days after closing = 3 days)
*Each day was followed by a loss (in %) of: 0.926 (2/1), 0.2553(2/13), 0.77(2/19), 1.546 (2/22), today?!?
*Days between (Trading days) each: 12(7) days, 6 (4) days, 3(3) days, and 5(3) days.
Today may be the first time we close above 14k for a consecutive days.
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
Should be interesting end of the week to see how the FED announcement plays out.
I personally wouldn't be surprised if all tapering is delayed. I think with Ben being finish in January, it would make sense to wait until the next leader is chosen and have him/her decide what they would like to do, instead of having it cross over from Ben to the new person. As personal agenda, I'd think nothing good can come from Tapering, so Ben might not want the potential scar left on his name as he exits.
No one wants to see their name in the headline "FED leader causes market crash as he runs for the door". Granted I'm not anticipating any kind of crash, even if they stopped 100% of tapering tomorrow, but certainly the potential is there.
I personally wouldn't be surprised if all tapering is delayed. I think with Ben being finish in January, it would make sense to wait until the next leader is chosen and have him/her decide what they would like to do, instead of having it cross over from Ben to the new person. As personal agenda, I'd think nothing good can come from Tapering, so Ben might not want the potential scar left on his name as he exits.
No one wants to see their name in the headline "FED leader causes market crash as he runs for the door". Granted I'm not anticipating any kind of crash, even if they stopped 100% of tapering tomorrow, but certainly the potential is there.
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
Anyone have Lead on their portfolio roadmap? US closed its last lead smelting plant.
In 2007 the US was 3rd in world production of Lead (Lead Production by Country (Metric tons, lead content))
In 2007 the US was 3rd in world production of Lead (Lead Production by Country (Metric tons, lead content))
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
Crunched a few numbers this morning in regards to 1st trading day of the year predicting how the year will end (i.e. 1st trading day positive, year will end positive, and vice versa)...
Since 2000 (14 years)
1st trading day of the year was:
Positive 8 times (including last 5 years)
Negative 6 times
Predicted whether the year ended Pos/Neg correctly 9 times (Including 5 of last 6)
Years it did not: 2011, 07, 05, 04, 02.
In 2011, the market ended basically flat (On edit: 07 and 05 were pretty flat too at around 3.7%)
In 07, 05, 04, and 02 the % changes on the 1st trading day were low. All less than 0.9% with 2005 being the highest at -0.8%.
Of all the years that made correct predictions, the 1st trading day had a % change greater than 0.9% (Absolute value) with 2000 being the lowest at -0.0955%
There is no significant of the 0.9% being the line-in-the-sand besides the fact that it happen to separate the data.
I think the take-away here is that if there is a strong movement on the 1st trading day, it gives reason to believe the year will end in that direction, and small movements on the 1st trading day, whether positive or negative, don't really tell you much.
Since 2000 (14 years)
1st trading day of the year was:
Positive 8 times (including last 5 years)
Negative 6 times
Predicted whether the year ended Pos/Neg correctly 9 times (Including 5 of last 6)
Years it did not: 2011, 07, 05, 04, 02.
In 2011, the market ended basically flat (On edit: 07 and 05 were pretty flat too at around 3.7%)
In 07, 05, 04, and 02 the % changes on the 1st trading day were low. All less than 0.9% with 2005 being the highest at -0.8%.
Of all the years that made correct predictions, the 1st trading day had a % change greater than 0.9% (Absolute value) with 2000 being the lowest at -0.0955%
There is no significant of the 0.9% being the line-in-the-sand besides the fact that it happen to separate the data.
I think the take-away here is that if there is a strong movement on the 1st trading day, it gives reason to believe the year will end in that direction, and small movements on the 1st trading day, whether positive or negative, don't really tell you much.
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
Tax question...
So I took a pretty decent size hit in UVXY in July of this past year and because of it I was in the red for the year. But when I went to check out my tax forms, the Schedule D says I'm positive for the year, and it matches what OptionsHouse has for the "Realized Gain Loss for previous year". And when I look at "Realized Gain Loss for Current Year" it shows I'm negative, which I'm actually up since January, including trades that were started in 2013 but carried over.
So it seems the losses from UVXY has "washed" their way all the way from July into 2014... does that sound feasible or should I look into this further?
So I took a pretty decent size hit in UVXY in July of this past year and because of it I was in the red for the year. But when I went to check out my tax forms, the Schedule D says I'm positive for the year, and it matches what OptionsHouse has for the "Realized Gain Loss for previous year". And when I look at "Realized Gain Loss for Current Year" it shows I'm negative, which I'm actually up since January, including trades that were started in 2013 but carried over.
So it seems the losses from UVXY has "washed" their way all the way from July into 2014... does that sound feasible or should I look into this further?
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
1st trade ever with this account was 12/27/12, so I never sold anything prior to 2013.
Yes. I only took a quick glance but it looked like there was never more than 30 days from sell to the next buy.. which I believe its 30 days for a wash sale. It gets kinda complicated because the buy/sells were all different sizes, but the longest time period from any given sell to the next buy (even if it was only a partial buy back) was 25 days.
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
I'm not quite sure what you just said, but we are talking about a sale in july being washed all the way into 2014. Which would have had to carry over from multiple wash sales.
I'm OK with the loss carrying over to the new year, actually I'd prefer it, but I don't want to not claim it this year, and then find out I was supposed to and not be able to claim it next year. I would be missing on some significant tax savings
Similar threads
