K0nKuzh0n's Account Talk

[PessOptimist]

You are absolutely correct, both of you. No matter who they work for the majority of the people involved in restoring your power are 100% intent on doing just that. The hero accolades will come later and mostly to their supervisors or managers. Stay out of the way as they are intent on their mission. Be friendly even if they don't seem to be reciprocating. If you can, observe from a safe distance how efficiently they repair the broken stuff. If they seem to stop for a while or ask you to move back, it is for a good reason.

 

[WorkFE]

Working in an EM capacity I often get the opportunity to observe all facets of disasters from planning to recovery. Although our leaders and 1st responders tend to get the most attention, watching those agencies that act on the recovery side can be exciting. It is amazing to watch the reaction of the community to something as simple as a light turning on.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

It certainly can be a sight to see! Unfortunately for every one of those cases, there are many more cases of people being angry that they aren't priority #1. People just need to remember to leave the workers be and let them do their job as they are working their butts off to get everyone back up and running as fast as they can!

As for the market, I was impressed with how steady and strong the gains today seemed to be. The S&P 500 hung around the 1200 level pretty much all day and edged up even further, closing above the 20 day EMA. Tomorrow should be interesting. Seems like there is a lot of potential in both directions. I think early tomorrow will be critical as whatever happens early on could very easily have a snow ball affect in either direction. Of course big news could always change the direction in a heart beat, but nothing in the news has been sticking out as true market movers on their own.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

I was very tempted to go all into the I fund today but decided against it. While I believe this bounce will be more than just today, I don't foresee myself being able to pick the peak well enough to be willing to risk losing MUCH more than there is to gain in the short term. Although the FV on the I fund should be favorable.

So I'm waiting..

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Anyone see the EFA? Was fairly flat all day (at least compared to recent volatility). Then tanked with the huge sell off across the board late today. Closed down 3%. In after market trading its up 2.6% at 5pm. Now while that is 2.6% up from the close price, and did not go from down 3% to up 2.6%, that is still a pretty ridiculous rebound.

Computers? Fear? Manipulation? All of the above?

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Anyone see the EFA? Was fairly flat all day (at least compared to recent volatility). Then tanked with the huge sell off across the board late today. Closed down 3%. In after market trading its up 2.6% at 5pm. Now while that is 2.6% up from the close price, and did not go from down 3% to up 2.6%, that is still a pretty ridiculous rebound.

Computers? Fear? Manipulation? All of the above?

And at 7:30pm it was down 0.5% from the close price. sheesh.

 

[SteelSaving]

Computers and Manipulation.
Fear? Fear my behind, there is nothing new coming out. We have had Europe on the news for weeks. Harry Reid's threat of another government shutdown is empty. The right is doing the same thing, the left is doing the same.

There needs to be a serious rethink of the two IFT limit. This is killing government employees retirement. Even ones who are fine with buy and hold must be wondering what the hell is going on.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

I jump in quite a bit today. Went from 100% G to 50% F, 25% S, 25% I.

It was a put-the-hands-over-the-eyes-and-jump move as I hadn't made any moves all of September and I was traveling all morning. I didn't get to read anything of what was going in the morning, but stopped at a mcdonalds for lunch for free wifi and made the request on my touchpad.

Sounds risky, but sometimes trading without logic is less risky then trading with logic!

 

[Sensei]

I jump in quite a bit today. Went from 100% G to 50% F, 25% S, 25% I.

It was a put-the-hands-over-the-eyes-and-jump move as I hadn't made any moves all of September and I was traveling all morning. I didn't get to read anything of what was going in the morning, but stopped at a mcdonalds for lunch for free wifi and made the request on my touchpad.

Sounds risky, but sometimes trading without logic is less risky then trading with logic!

If I had anymore Sept IFTs, I'd have gone in today. Market's oversold, we're close to downward support, I think you'll get a bounce by Tuesday. Then you'll still have 2 Oct IFTs to get you out, and back in again at the end of the month. Good risk/reward move IMO.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

I had a feeling there was going to be a late rally, at least in a few areas. I was watching natural resources most of the day, watching ANR closing. Bought a small chunk at 16.7, hoping for a rally today. It hit resistance around the 17.0 area several times. As its gains slowly faded, around 2pm I was thinking about buying more, at below 16.4, but I just couldn't pull the trigger with how fast ANR had been dropping. I headed to the gym at 3pm. Got home at 4:30 and was dumbfounded by the rally that had happened.

Another stock I was tracking was TNK, as it had fallen quite a bit recently. I was going to wait for it to level out. Thought about getting some when it was down about 7% for the day. bottomed at around 8.9% down on the day.... Ended up 14.21%...Wow.

Also bought shares of CYS @ 10.72. Close the day at 11.37, which was only a 0.09% gain from yesterdays close, but was 5.67% increase from the open of 10.76, and a 6.06% gain from when I bought it. Although I'm long on this stock, so not too worried about price, just accumulating shares.

 

[Birchtree]

Let's see how long it will take ANR to run from $16.04 to $62.50.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Congrats K0nKuzh0n !!

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

The Dow surpased the nasdaq in afternoon trading and closer with a slightly higher gain. That paired with the smart money selling late may be signs that this rally has come to an end. I didn't think it would even come this far, but it would not be surprising if the rally still had more steam left. We shall see!

I'm sitting in the F fund after selling on October 7th. I've got another IFT to use in October.

Sold ANR on Friday at at 18.57 a share for a gain of 11.2% in 4 days. I did not want to keep it over the weekend, and regretted not selling it in the 19.xx range on Thursday.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Great trading ! I am with you in F now and have one more IFT to see if I can get into S before the end of the month. Good luck us both

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Thanks RMI! Good luck to you too! :nuts:


I'm not sure what to make of this market. This rally sure seems strong with the S&P closing 4 straight days above the 50 EMA, and could very easily be taking a break before going higher. I look at the information flow and it seems to be well understood Eruope (rumors?) is the basis for this change. But It seems like a lot of stores are closing or cutting back as if we are going into another recession. I personally am sad to see Friendly's filing for bankcruptcy =(.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

This feels more like playing Roullette then anything.

100% I on Black. :worried:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

This feels more like playing Roullette then anything.

Excellent analogy...

 

[uscfanhawaii]

This feels more like playing Roullette then anything.

100% I on Black. :worried:

So, KK, you ready to bet on Santa yet? (I guess that means you have to play red this time!) :blink:

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Most people call me K0n for short :cheesy:

No I am not ready for a santa claus rally yet. I was really hoping Friday didn't happen and was looking for 3-5 down days to raise bearish levels. Had it been the opposite of what it actually was, I would probably be buying today. In a perfect world, the sentiment survey would flip to a buy. I have a hard time throwing out logic, and logic seems to say the S&P should not be anywhere close to as high as 1250. 1100 is a long way down, and I've already ridden three major falls this year, Japan tsunami (5.5%), August (15%), and end of november (11%). Those are the maximum losses, not the losses at which I sold at. Granted I made it out of the Tsunami and November alive, August cut my return for the year in half.

I am far more affraid of getting in on a fall, then I am missing out on a rally.

It seems lately every time I buy with the intentions of getting right back out, I get mentally-locked into riding out a roller coaster.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Summary of my trades for 2011:
[TABLE="width: 607"]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]My[/TD]
[TD]My Return[/TD]
[TD]Average[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 5"]Fund Allocation (%)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] Return [/TD]
[TD]Return[/TD]
[TD]Daily[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trans[/TD]
[TD]Left[/TD]
[TD]Start[/TD]
[TD]End[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]S[/TD]
[TD]I[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] Period [/TD]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Return[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1/3[/TD]
[TD]1/4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]54%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Talk[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1/5[/TD]
[TD]1/10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]54%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1/11[/TD]
[TD]1/13[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.76%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.86%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1/14[/TD]
[TD]2/22[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.22%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.63%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2/23[/TD]
[TD]3/18[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.20%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.32%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3/21[/TD]
[TD]4/4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.31%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.42%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]4/5[/TD]
[TD]4/14[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.06%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]4/15[/TD]
[TD]4/20[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.49%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.30%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7.1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]4/21[/TD]
[TD]4/26[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]80%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.30%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.70%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7.2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]4/27[/TD]
[TD]4/29[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.68%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7.3[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]5/2[/TD]
[TD]5/17[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.60%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8.3[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]5/18[/TD]
[TD]5/27[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.54%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.30%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9.3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]5/31[/TD]
[TD]6/23[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]80%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.63%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.59%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10.3[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]6/24[/TD]
[TD]6/29[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]75%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.39%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14.26%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11.3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]6/30[/TD]
[TD]7/18[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.82%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15.20%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12.3[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]7/19[/TD]
[TD]7/22[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.21%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18.90%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.80%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13.3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]7/25[/TD]
[TD]7/28[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.06%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18.97%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13.4[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]7/29[/TD]
[TD]8/1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.03%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19.01%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14.4[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]8/2[/TD]
[TD]8/2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.16%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15.24%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.16%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15.4[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]8/3[/TD]
[TD]8/15[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4.82%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15.5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]8/16[/TD]
[TD]9/30[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.25%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.97%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16.5[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]10/3[/TD]
[TD]10/6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.54%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.67%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.39%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17.5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]10/7[/TD]
[TD]10/31[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.47%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18.5[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]11/1[/TD]
[TD]12/2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19.5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]12/5[/TD]
[TD]12/15[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.06%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.78%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20.5[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]12/16[/TD]
[TD]12/19[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.24%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20.6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]12/20[/TD]
[TD]12/30[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.31%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.91%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]