JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Good morning

Based off October's 2022 close, drawn out are the percentage Average Gains/Losses from 1950-2021's Months of November.

In comparison, we can see where November 2022 currently falls within this historical range.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

It's been an impressive 24 hour news cycle. For the moment, it looks like we are making a run to close both above October's high and a 50% retracement.

I'm still planning to hold, but would like to scale out close to SPX 4,000, then re-enter lower. I feel like I'm trying to scalp pennies....

 

[WorkFE]

Pennies add up

 

[JTH]

Pennies add up

Such a valid point, if I had forecast the G-Fund would be paying so well this year, I might have parked all of it there. If anything, the 20% G-fund allocation I've had, saved my bacon

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I totally forgot the markets were open today, everything in Poland is closed (Independence Day).

Anyhow, I'm starting to like this chart format, it's fun to see where this November will land.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I've decided to change the statistical charts, these changes help smooth out the data and provide a more realistic expectation.

Instead of going back to 1950, the charts now go back to 1959. On the 1st chart I've added three 21-year timeframes. On the 2nd chart, in addition to going back to 1959, the Top/Bottom 3 have been changed to the Top/Bottom 6 average gains/losses.

 

[JTH]

Good morning (again)

I've modified the Day of the week chart. It now reflects the previous 55 days, with 11 of each day of the week. This shorter timeframe helps front-weight the trends, identifying changes more rapidly. With the current chart, it appears Monday has been the best day to sell and Wednesday the best day to buy.

View attachment 56137

 

[JTH]

Good morning (for some SPX fun)

Going back 11 years, there is only one occasion where a single day of the week closed negative 8 consecutive times, this was Thursday FEB 2022

SPX Wednesdays have closed negative 6 consecutive times. Here are the other times this has happened to Wednesdays, MAR 2018 (6), DEC 2017 (6), MAR 2015 (7)

 

[JTH]

I'm still planning to hold, but would like to scale out close to SPX 4,000, then re-enter lower.

Scaling 15C into G, IFT EoB 40G/60C

 

[JTH]

I've modified the Day of the week chart. It now reflects the previous 55 days, with 11 of each day of the week. This shorter timeframe helps front-weight the trends, identifying changes more rapidly. With the current chart, it appears Monday has been the best day to sell and Wednesday the best day to buy.View attachment 56137

Good morning

I'm reposting this chart, the negative average loss was calculated incorrectly.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Nothing special to report, next week we have Thanksgiving where the past 11 years show a float up into the holiday, then a fade out.

Last year we lost -2.86% the first 3 days after Thanksgiving.

 

[flalaw97]

Am I reading this correctly, that with only one exception (2013), if the Friday after Thanksgiving was a down day, the Monday after Thanksgiving went up by over 1%? In this day of trying to hit that short uptick, might be something to look at getting in on Friday if it is down, and out on Monday if it follows the trend?

 

[tsptalk]

And in 8 of the last 9 years, it looks like Friday did the opposite of Wednesday. (If Wed was up, Fri was down. If Wed was down, Fri was up.)

 

[tsptalk]

I found this old excel file on my PC that conveniently ended in 2010:

It's the return of Thanksgiving week Tues - Fri. That was back when the Friday after Thanksgiving was almost a slam dunk for the bulls.

 

[JTH]

Am I reading this correctly, that with only one exception (2013), if the Friday after Thanksgiving was a down day, the Monday after Thanksgiving went up by over 1%? In this day of trying to hit that short uptick, might be something to look at getting in on Friday if it is down, and out on Monday if it follows the trend?

And in 8 of the last 9 years, it looks like Friday did the opposite of Wednesday. (If Wed was up, Fri was down. If Wed was down, Fri was up.)

I found this old excel file on my PC that conveniently ended in 2010:

It's the return of Thanksgiving week Tues - Fri. That was back when the Friday after Thanksgiving was almost a slam dunk for the bulls.

If we had more IFT's I'd likely play the probabilities more. Funny thing is I don't trade based on statistics in my brokerage accounts, I just enjoy looking at this data and giving a different perspective. The post was timed well, I was already thinking (and working) on pushing some of the Daily stats back 21 years. I don't have the old data from years ago, everything now is based off Trading View & Google sheets, so I'm still rebuilding some of these processes.

Here's an updated version going back 21 years.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

The chart below shows how often the S&P 500 has closed in the direction of the opening gap.

- The last 21 times the index gapped up, it closed up 71% of the time.
- The last 21 times the index gapped down, it closed down 90% of the time.

Based on this data, a gap down on Monday might be a good time to buy, while a gap up on Friday might be a good time to sell.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Not much to report for the Day of Week stats, the 55 day average is below the 21-Year Daily average (posted in the far right column & in my signature block).

Last 7 Wednesdays closed down while the last 5 Fridays closed up.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I have nothing useful to report, so I'll spam my thread. When the last 250 Mondays closed down, the next day closed up 59% of the time.

 

[flalaw97]

Hence the "Turnaround Tuesday" phrase?

 

[flalaw97]

Putting a number of these comments/charts together for today. If today gaps up, good day to sell. Because gaps up usually end up and Monday after Thanksgiving normally does opposite of Friday after Thanksgiving. However, Friday after Thanksgiving is normally opposite of Wednesday before T-giving which was up yesterday. So if today looks like a down day, hold on to Monday where the trend has been over 1% rebound. Thanks for all the data!