JTH's Account Talk

[MrBowl]

Maybe he and Birchtree have retired and met up in Mexico, like in Shawshank Redemption

 

[JTH]

Hi everyone, time flies, I'm sorry to not be here to enjoy the forum.

Small updates, I retired from USAF 2 years ago, currently fully retired and living in Europe.

I have been actively managing trading/investing accounts, but haven't really touched the TSP, pretty much been sitting 20G/40C/40S.

Now that we have a proper bear market, it's time for me to dust off the cobb webs and get back into a battle rhythm. I can't believe all the changes to the TSP website, I'll need to do a lot of reading here to catch up on things.

Cheers.... Jason

 

[Bquat]

I am so happy that you are back

 

[tsptalk]

Good to see you again, Jason!

 

[nasa1974]

Welcome back. Didn't retire from the Air Force but served 70-74.

 

[felixthecat]

Welcome back Jason (JTH).! Congrats on that retirement living. You did very well with that allocation for years. Tough times are here now and now waiting for recession and inflation to bring on panic selling to mark the bottom. Who knows for sure when that is but I’m using the early 70’s inflation/recession as a template which thus far is working well. We should bottom 1st quarter of next year with the new bull for the spring. Been watching the 10yr bond, VIX, and FED moves/discussions to gauge progress. So far…the world is paying more for everything as inflation broadens and job numbers indicate the FED is still trying to catch up. Can you tell us anything about what your experiencing in Europe? Thanks!

Hi everyone, time flies, I'm sorry to not be here to enjoy the forum.

Small updates, I retired from USAF 2 years ago, currently fully retired and living in Europe.

I have been actively managing trading/investing accounts, but haven't really touched the TSP, pretty much been sitting 20G/40C/40S.

Now that we have a proper bear market, it's time for me to dust off the cobb webs and get back into a battle rhythm. I can't believe all the changes to the TSP website, I'll need to do a lot of reading here to catch up on things.

Cheers.... Jason

 

[JTH]

Can you tell us anything about what your experiencing in Europe? Thanks!

Yea, inflation here in Poland is about 17%, there's lot's of Europeans on adjustable rate mortgages, getting stiffed with the interest rate hikes, some landlords have raised rent while still under contract with the tenant. The war here has skyrocket all utilities, Poland still has some households that burn coal for heat, it's nasty, a cold winter is going to be a nightmare for everyone. The influx of Ukrainians has stabilized, but it has strained government services.

For the moment, my only goal is to continue to raise cash, and trickle buy, it's been a crazy 3 years!

 

[ravensfan]

Hey Jason welcome back. We've missed you and your posts.

 

[JTH]

Hey Jason welcome back. We've missed you and your posts.

Thanks, I'm glad to be back, I didn't even realize how long I was gone, really got burned out those last few years in the military. It's good to see some of the same folks still here, it's a very dedicated group

 

[felixthecat]

Sounds tough all over including worsening conditions in the USA. Thanks for the writeup. Looks like we have a ways to go before we dig out of this hole.

Yea, inflation here in Poland is about 17%, there's lot's of Europeans on adjustable rate mortgages, getting stiffed with the interest rate hikes, some landlords have raised rent while still under contract with the tenant. The war here has skyrocket all utilities, Poland still has some households that burn coal for heat, it's nasty, a cold winter is going to be a nightmare for everyone. The influx of Ukrainians has stabilized, but it has strained government services.

For the moment, my only goal is to continue to raise cash, and trickle buy, it's been a crazy 3 years!

 

[JTH]

2 years ago I started managing one of my dad's accounts, now he's asked me to take over his other accounts.

After reviewing his mutual funds, it was upsetting to see his portfolio's allocation and expenses. His financial advisor hasn't contacted him in years, and the expense ratios are criminal. All his funds have underperformed their Vanguard equivalents, but no worries, his financial advisor still gets paid regardless of his lack of performance... So now, I need to help him gets those assets transferred (avoid getting taxed) and get them back into the markets so he can regain the performance he's already lost.

I'm all for buy and hold, but sometimes folks like my dad need to do a review, ask questions, compare cost, and be willing to make changes. My dad is doing well, he doesn't need these funds since he has a pension, but not everyone is as fortunate as he is.

 

[WorkFE]

My Father and I started reviewing each other's accounts about 5 years ago.
He is an old school investor and I learn a lot every year. I am a combination of both old/new way of thinking, and he has benefitted from that.

Like my wife and I, we generally take risk at opposite times. While it's not eye popping, all of us have steadily made 7-8% every year.
For us it is about preservation. He turns 80 next month.

 

[JTH]

We are on the cusp of having the red 200 SMA cross below the purple 500 SMA, this doesn't happen often.

S&P 500, from left to right, March 2001, July 2008, April 2016, and soon October 2022.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I've rejoined the AutoTracker, and submitted the 20G/40C/40S allocation that's been in my account. According to the "wonderful" TSP.GOV site, I'm down -8.29% YTD


In the short term, if we rise into the November elections, then I'll look to exit around SPX 3900 (50% retracement & 50 SMA), either fully exiting into the G-Fund, or exiting from the S-Fund. Either ways, I want to be out of the S-Fund this month, I don't want to swing trade more than 1 fund at a time.

We are on the cusp of having the red 200 SMA cross below the purple 500 SMA

The 200 SMA has crossed below the 500SMA, sorta cool

 

[Whipsaw]

Three out of the four charts in the quad above indicate a bounce at the cross over, you expect that pattern to continue? Then, look out below! I was thinking the change in control of the house and senate might bode well for recovery.

 

[JTH]

Three out of the four charts in the quad above indicate a bounce at the cross over, you expect that pattern to continue? Then, look out below! I was thinking the change in control of the house and senate might bode well for recovery.

Truth be told, there just isn't enough data to work with, I've reviewed some of the crossovers going back to the 70s. Many crossovers produced short-term bounces, but 1970/1974 were bloody. But I should add, during those times, price was already very close to the SMAs unlike today's crossover.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Welcome back JTH! Glad to see you back. Looking forward to your comments and analysis. You have been missed! :smile:

 

[JTH]

According to the "wonderful" TSP.GOV site, I'm down -8.29% YTD

Ok, I guess I didn't know TSP.gov's website is jacked up. By my calculations, as of today, I'm actually down -19.56% YTD

Is there anything else wrong I should also be looking for?

 

[nasa1974]

Ok, I guess I didn't know TSP.gov's website is jacked up. Is there anything else wrong I should also be looking for?

Nope. That's it. The new website is a joke.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

For some fun, listed below is a percentage/time overlay of 3 previous bear markets which both led to a recession, and were longer than our current 273 days (9 Bars/Months).

SPX MONTHLY: