JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

I'm with ya JTH

Hi JTH: Earnings....Shmearnings... I keep thinking we're starting to see a pullback, then whamo....not so much....the action still seems choppy and sideways.. I'm out till May anyway but I wouldn't buy until we either crossover 2101, or until we see a sustained downtrend under 2037. At least I can play the pivots and seasonality even with this insane CB and oil intervention. If oil continues up, I'm guessing we see new highs soon despite the bad earnings. Best to all you guys!

FS

Thanks friend, you may have noticed the most recent top is at 2111, I don't believe this is by accident, people are superstitious and like round numbers. I still think my 2121-2222 projection is possible, but as you mentioned we're starting to see the introduction of volatility, and I'm keeping a very close eye on that.

 

[JTH]

I'm with ya JTH

50/50 CS
You got more love of the S fund than I

That looks promising...

 

[JTH]

The markets continue to reluctantly trudge ahead, climbing the wall of worry, while leaving the naysayers behind.


Trading the Stats: Week 17

 

[JTH]

TRAN took a spill today, but it didn't have far to go for a reversal, and the price objective isn't too far off, we'll see how it plays out.

 

[JTH]

On the ALPAFS scale, NDX flipped bearish with a Triple Bottom Breakdown. This means TRAN/NDX are bearish on this timeframe. SPX/W4500 still holding up well.

 

[JTH]

TRAN took a spill today, but it didn't have far to go for a reversal, and the price objective isn't too far off, we'll see how it plays out.

And just like that, TRAN flips back over to a buy, leaving NDX by its bearish self...

 

[airlift]

And just like that, TRAN flips back over to a buy, leaving NDX by its bearish self...

View attachment 38078

The TRAN flipping back and forth in a shaky manner seems to respond to instability or uncertainty of significant proportions in the markets or in the traditional indicators. I can't define what, if anything, this might be presaging. Could this be a telling sign or a precursor to a very big drop?

 

[jkenjohnson]

The TRAN flipping back and forth in a shaky manner seems to respond to instability or uncertainty of significant proportions in the markets or in the traditional indicators. I can't define what, if anything, this might be presaging. Could this be a telling sign or a precursor to a very big drop?

This has been the most frustrating year for me in a while. Glad to see you (Jason) are in the black and moving up.

 

[JTH]

The TRAN flipping back and forth in a shaky manner seems to respond to instability or uncertainty of significant proportions in the markets or in the traditional indicators. I can't define what, if anything, this might be presaging. Could this be a telling sign or a precursor to a very big drop?

Because ALPAFS keeps SPX/W4500/TRAN/NDX on the same .25% box scale (with a 4-box triggering a reversal) we'll see more buy/sell signals on the indexes which have larger percentage moves. Hence we'll get more signals from TRAN/NDX because they move faster than the other indexes. I'm not worried with the recent flip flop in TRAN, these are smaller less volatile moves when compared to the initial downslide from 2015.

From my current perspective, we have some more room to absorb a healthy retracement, before anyone should be getting concerned.

 

[JTH]

Tough month, it should have been better, but hey, we take what we can get...

Trading the Stats: Week 18

 

[JTH]

Tough month, it should have been better, but hey, we take what we can get...

Trading the Stats:Week 18

View attachment 38144

I wrote in my blog that I plan to push the ALPAFS PnF system into the sidelines today. I've changed my mind (at least for today) as long as we don't breach the recent lows, I'm going to keep the system in the S-Fund.

TRAN & NDX are working a new column of Xs, so I'll wait to see how this pans out.

 

[JTH]

JTH-ESD IFT EoB Today, from 100S to 100F

 

[airlift]

JTH-ESD IFT EoB Today, from 100S to 100F

View attachment 38157

JTH,

I see you did an IFT for JTH-ESD EoB today. However, is your regular JTH account remaining 100% in the S Fund?. Thanks

 

[JTH]

I wrote in my blog that I plan to push the ALPAFS PnF system into the sidelines today. I've changed my mind (at least for today) as long as we don't breach the recent lows, I'm going to keep the system in the S-Fund.

TRAN & NDX are working a new column of Xs, so I'll wait to see how this pans out.

JTH-ALPAFS IFT EoB Today, from 100S to 100G

Both W4500 & TRAN broke down again, market conditions don't look so hot at the moment.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

I see you did an IFT for JTH-ESD EoB today. However, is your regular JTH account remaining 100% in the S Fund?. Thanks

Sorry for the late reply, had to take a quick nap.

I'm still in the S-Fund, don't care to exit on such a large down day. The other 2 systems took the exit because this was expected, for myself, I'll look for other opportunities.

 

[airlift]

Sorry for the late reply, had to take a quick nap.

I'm still in the S-Fund, don't care to exit on such a large down day. The other 2 systems took the exit because this was expected, for myself, I'll look for other opportunities.

View attachment 38160

Good decision. Thank you.

 

[FAB1]

I posted in another thread expecting the SPX to bounce off the 200ema (before I enter) -- Looks like we agree plus you added the support line from the 3 bottoms in late 2015, that should strengthen it. Good call!

 

[FAB1]

PMO indicator @ $WTIC has crossed and it hasn't done that since the $20 to $40+ rally

could be short-lived but maybe a sign that King Oil is headed back down for a season.

That would be a catalyst to bring stocks further down to the support line - but will the support
hold if the price of Oil continued to fall??

Tune in Next Week and see!

 

[airlift]

JTH,

your charts and and ideas are always good guidance. We haven't seen any updates of your views for a few days. It is refreshing to see your opinions on the direction and most likely performance of the markets. Can you please update your views as of late? Thank you.

 

[FAB1]

Some unseen force is pulling the markets up, it took control of my better judgment and made me
go 100% C today when my gut said wait for a lower entry.

It could be..... Greed!