JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Not expecting a crash, more of a slide. But I'll be on the fence for now. Cheers JTH.

I happen to think you're right, a slow slide seems in order for the next few days. The best part about all of this, if I had 20+ years of trading experience, the odds of me being right are about the same. But I do believe the odds of us reacting correctly do increase over time & experience

 

[FAAM]

Hey JTH, I'm bringing reply over from your Blog about "Trading the Stats: 2nd Qtr", to your forum Account; hope you don't mind as discuss is about market direction short/mid-term.
With regard to your Blog(s) I asked if you're considering the Presidential election year historical data (Tom's chart on weekly-wrap blogs) showing drop starting April sometime. Thanks for your reply pasted as follows:
"Tom's chart is of the DOW, while I track the stats of SPX/W4500/AGG. The chart he posted also goes back to 1900, I personally don't believe stats that old are as relevant with today's price action, because trends change over time. April is a good month, and Pre-election Q2 is one of the best quarters of the election cycle. I can't tell you much more than that due to copyright issues, but if you have a copy of the 2016 Stock Trader's Almanac, I can point you to more info which may alleviate any trepidation you may have. Either ways, stats cannot predict the future, but they can give us valuable info about past market behaviors."
I'm hoping the equities don't do more than a slow slide then go upwards at least a bit more to SPX 2880 or more; I IFT'd more into C&S yesterday & invested some more of my personal account into some stocks/ ETFs. Today's close wasn't kind to me. I'm watching pensively though for exit sign of a roll-over like the election-year chart indicates is typical. Though it was for the DOW as you pointed out, and going way back to 1900, wouldn't SPX & W4500 generally track with the DOW on significant moves? Tom pointed out that thus far in 2016, the markets have tracked that historical election-year DOW performance track fairly closely. Again though... I do hope we see the typical good April numbers your analyses indicate we might anticipate.
Here's wishing us the best, & hope your work over the next couple days goes great.

 

[JTH]

Sry for the late reply, I'm just getting checked into a a hotel for the night. I won't be able to do much till this weekend, today was a good close, but thus far, my expectations for the 1st week of April are low.

 

[JTH]

This stuff always happens when I'm out of town, I'm taking ALPAFs to the sidelines, SPX has flipped over to a sell (following the TRAN)

 

[DaddyTin]

JTH,

Time to get an Android watch or something. Hook it to your thermos. The programmed event will generate steam in the thermos, causing pressure to increase until BANG ---- the alarm is announced.

Personally, I use Marketwatch app. Works wonders.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

Time to get an Android watch or something. Hook it to your thermos. The programmed event will generate steam in the thermos, causing pressure to increase until BANG ---- the alarm is announced.

Personally, I use Marketwatch app. Works wonders.

Yes, but that only works if you're allowed to have a phone while at work, I'm doing extended hours right now, so there's really no time to perform an IFT during duty hours, but I'm going to find the time...

PnF NDX rolled over too.

 

[JTH]

This stuff always happens when I'm out of town, I'm taking ALPAFs to the sidelines, SPX has flipped over to a sell (following the TRAN)

View attachment 37865

IFT Canceled (it looks like a bear trap)

 

[FAB1]

Not liking the flat top that's forming, some good daily in & out action but when comes the day of the afternoon crash
when Ol' Yellen barks something ominous or profound (ha)

Too much Weakness. So I will either increase F investment or just Wait.

 

[FAB1]

Still looking Down at the G fund. ; )

 

[JTH]

Looks like we're setup for a great week! If I'm lucky, I'll be back home before next weekend, in the meantime, try not to let things fall apart while I'm gone

Trading the Stats:*Week 15

 

[airlift]

Looks like we're setup for a great week! If I'm lucky, I'll be back home before next weekend, in the meantime, try not to let things fall apart while I'm gone

Trading the Stats:*Week 15

JTH,

This is an excellent perspective. Since you will be outb or busy this week, I take the liberty of asking for opinions from any or all of your good fellow readers. What will occur this week? I am inclined toward your charts and opinions. However, there are other opinions from other highly respected members who have a different perspective of the direction of the markets going forward. I just want to stimulate an open discussion, which might be helpful for each member to reach a decision as to whether to buy, sell or hold. Tia.

 

[JTH]

JTH-ESD, IFT EoB today, from 100C to 100F

 

[BooDog]

JTH-ESD, IFT EoB today, from 100C to 100F

Good luck JTH. The volatility has been picking up again. Whipsaw action makes it a bit more difficult to calculate but eventually it shows itself on the daily.Tough to make a call but just using the DJIA you can flip through the other indices and see the support levels. Main levels being 17,000 and the 16,500 if that breaks for the Dow. And of course the triple top. Which, imo, shows we've formed a head and shoulders (this March to now) which would be bearish. Very possible though we rally to test the tops and the dma's move closer to seeing the 50 day moving averages cross the 200 day. The Golden Cross!!! Media starts pumping that and who knows what will happen. Think I've mentioned I hate seeing gaps, well, sideways is also on my list. So I remain on the fence 5% I and 5% C. 90% G.

Best of luck to everyone.

Jim

 

[FAB1]

Well, you know the age-old saying.

Flat-top, Market drop.

I don't feel Froggy at all right now. ; )

 

[JTH]

JTH-ALPAFS IFT EoB Today, from 100C to 100F

Did not get the Bear Trap signal I was looking for, NDX went lower, this market is simmering with a sealed pot...

 

[BooDog]

JTH-ALPAFS IFT EoB Today, from 100C to 100F

Did not get the Bear Trap signal I was looking for, NDX went lower, this market is simmering with a sealed pot...

Pretty crazy. The sky is falling! No, it isn't! Yes it is! No, it isn't!

 

[airlift]

JTH-ALPAFS IFT EoB Today, from 100C to 100F

Did not get the Bear Trap signal I was looking for, NDX went lower, this market is simmering with a sealed pot...

JTH,

Does this mean that the sealed pot will explode to spill everthing to the downside? But, how do you reconcile this with your quite persuasive charts and comments for week 15? Tia

 

[JTH]

JTH,

Does this mean that the sealed pot will explode to spill everthing to the downside? But, how do you reconcile this with your quite persuasive charts and comments for week 15? Tia

Hold up there, I might be the only one on this forum who hasn't been looking for the downside. In fact I happen to disagree with the majority of bearish projections posted, but at the same time, I know what I think, so I see no need to pursued others.

ESD went into the F-Fund (not because I'm bearish) but because this is what the system called for (weeks in advance)

ALPAFS has entered the F-Fund because 3 of 4 indexes are bearish (on this timeframe/price scale) I did delay the signal because I was looking for a bear trap which has yet to materialize (but it still could on 1 index)

I'm still in the C-Fund

 

[airlift]

Hold up there, I might be the only one on this forum who hasn't been looking for the downside. In fact I happen to disagree with the majority of bearish projections posted, but at the same time, I know what I think, so I see no need to pursued others.

ESD went into the F-Fund (not because I'm bearish) but because this is what the system called for (weeks in advance)

ALPAFS has entered the F-Fund because 3 of 4 indexes are bearish (on this timeframe/price scale) I did delay the signal because I was looking for a bear trap which has yet to materialize (but it still could on 1 index)

I'm still in the C-Fund

JTH,

I was aware of what you meant and what you did with ESD and ALPAFS. However, I believe that your own words are more comforting and reassuring than any explanation I could write. Thank you.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

I was aware of what you meant and what you did with ESD and ALPAFS. However, I believe that your own words are more comforting and reassuring than any explanation I could write. Thank you.

NP, we should be picking a direction soon, this is the lowest compression of the bollinger bands we've had in 7 months. Compression = Pressure