JTH's Account Talk

[rktect1]

Oh yeah? Can you beat my contrarian indicator (Cactus' Reverse And Profit)?

Here are the 2016 returns through yesterday:
[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD]Cactus
[/TD]
[TD]CRAP
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD](5.62%)
[/TD]
[TD]7.57%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
For me it is 2014 all over again.

Once you get down to my level, then you can bitch about it. So quit yer bellyaching.

Now, I have to go transfer money from my Vanguard account to pay my taxes. ;swear

 

[JTH]

Oh I love the "who got fk'ed worse" thread, it always makes me thankful for what little I do have...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

What's your secret??? Can I use your CRAP-PY method????? Seems to work real well!!! --
Definitely doing better than me!

Oh yeah? Can you beat my contrarian indicator (Cactus' Reverse And Profit)?

Here are the 2016 returns through yesterday:
[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD]Cactus
[/TD]
[TD]CRAP
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD](5.62%)
[/TD]
[TD]7.57%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
For me it is 2014 all over again.

 

[airlift]

Can someone please opine as to which fund should perform best going forward? I suppose that the lower dollar would help the C fund more than the S fund, but perhaps there are other factors to be considered. Tia.

 

[JTH]

Best estimate I can give you. We will not close above 2065 today, meaning we will not close above the upper descending yellow trendline. IMHO, markets do not like to give us validation on the first try, they like to leave us hanging, wondering & pondering the age old question, "what will price do next?"

Watch out for the Middle Finger Formation...

 

[airlift]

Watch out for the Middle Finger Formation...

View attachment 37786

Thank you for your charts and opinions. Great prognosis and guidance....

 

[Cactus]

What's your secret??? Can I use your CRAP-PY method????? Seems to work real well!!! --
Definitely doing better than me!

Anyone can use my CRAP-PY method. I've been posting my moves in Minnow's http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/short-term-strategies/21384-doom-trading-system.html thread which is in "Short Term Strategies". DOOM (Do Opposite Of Minnow) is Minnow's Contrarian Indicator so I started posting CRAP in there to keep everything in one place.

As you can see from the thread, CRAP didn't do well last year, but it had an astounding 2014. This year is starting off to be another 2014 for me and my CRAP.

As to what's my secret, I attribute it to the Fates. No matter what I do I can't seem to do it right. That would include trying to follow CRAP. You heard of circular arguments, try following a circular system. :laugh:

 

[JTH]

Good evening

SPX looks poised to sell off some of the previous gains, as previously mentioned I do expect this Thursday to close down (but I'll add I expect W4500 to close up). Also looking to possibly fill the 2055.91 gap today, but more likely it will be filled on Friday.

 

[JTH]

One more thing to add, I'm done with making projections for the time being. I've been right too many times this month, so I best resign now while I'm ahead...

 

[pmaloney]

What's that on the road, a head?

Thanks for your insights! :smile:

 

[rspring]

One more thing to add, I'm done with making projections for the time being. I've been right too many times this month, so I best resign now while I'm ahead...

But that is what makes you so Great! Thanks for all of your charts and commentary. After trying to follow just one service at the beginning of the year and being down over 10% I have decided to
be more proactive and develop my own guidelines for investing. I do use your great charts to help in my decision making and it is nice to know how you interpret them as well. I'm proud to say I have cut my loss to .3% as of yesterday. Thanks for all you do!

 

[JTH]

But that is what makes you so Great! Thanks for all of your charts and commentary. After trying to follow just one service at the beginning of the year and being down over 10% I have decided to
be more proactive and develop my own guidelines for investing. I do use your great charts to help in my decision making and it is nice to know how you interpret them as well. I'm proud to say I have cut my loss to .3% as of yesterday. Thanks for all you do!

Thanks Rspring, I'm glad to see we're working our way out of the January hole, it's tough when it takes 2 months to recover a 1-month loss, but there were some great lessons learned for all of us. My primary concern for now, is to ride the highs and side-step the next 2-4% pullback. For myself, I have to be really careful not to fk this up

 

[rspring]

One chart I have been following is the one Tom posted for election years. I don't know if it will continue, but look at it and compare to how we have taken a similar path. To me it would make sense to top out sometime before earnings are released. We'll have the answer within the next week or two.

 

[ravensfan]

One chart I have been following is the one Tom posted for election years. I don't know if it will continue, but look at it and compare to how we have taken a similar path. To me it would make sense to top out sometime before earnings are released. We'll have the answer within the next week or two.

You can always cut and paste that chart to a word document, then save it to your documents folder...Just a thought.

 

[Tsunami]

One chart I have been following is the one Tom posted for election years. I don't know if it will continue, but look at it and compare to how we have taken a similar path. To me it would make sense to top out sometime before earnings are released. We'll have the answer within the next week or two.

The chart Tom posted doesn't tell the whole story...the 8th year of a Presidential term looks totally different after the early April peak...

Presidential cycle stock market performance - Business Insider

I'm expecting a peak very soon, perhaps as soon as early tomorrow around 2080ish, then comes that next big slide in the chart above, which I expect to bottom in June. Not sure what would trigger that though, but the waves call for just one more move up in a final little wave 5....and yeah, I've been saying that for a while and missing out on the gains, so I've become a good contrary indicator.

 

[JTH]

One chart I have been following is the one Tom posted for election years. I don't know if it will continue, but look at it and compare to how we have taken a similar path. To me it would make sense to top out sometime before earnings are released. We'll have the answer within the next week or two.

You can always cut and paste that chart to a word document, then save it to your documents folder...Just a thought.

There's validity to this statistical cycle, I don't really track it, but it's not because I don't believe it doesn't exist, it's more because I try to keep my stats on a level playing field. As for the next peak, I've already made the 2121-2222 call back in week 11, as to when it happens, as long as I'm out when it stops happening...

 

[JTH]

One chart I have been following is the one Tom posted for election years. I don't know if it will continue, but look at it and compare to how we have taken a similar path. To me it would make sense to top out sometime before earnings are released. We'll have the answer within the next week or two.

Great finish to the month

SPX gives us its 3rd highest close over the past 41 years
W4500 gives us its 2nd highest close over the past 28 years
AGG gives us its best highest close over the past 12 years

 

[ravensfan]

Jason,

I went ahead and submitted my last IFT for March today and it ended up being a mixed bag. I went 50% G Fund, 15% C Fund and 35% S Fund. I saved five cents per share on the C Fund by waiting until today, but ended up spending an additional thirteen cents per share on the S Fund. On a good note though, my time in the F Fund netted a positive gain for the month...

Hopefully April starts out to the upside and I can finally be in positive territory for 2016. Will be sitting in the cockpit with one hand on the throttle and the other on the eject button...:nuts:

 

[nasa1974]

Jason,

I went ahead and submitted my last IFT for March today and it ended up being a mixed bag. I went 50% G Fund, 15% C Fund and 35% S Fund. I saved five cents per share on the C Fund by waiting until today, but ended up spending an additional thirteen cents per share on the S Fund. On a good note though, my time in the F Fund netted a positive gain for the month...

Hopefully April starts out to the upside and I can finally be in positive territory for 2016. Will be sitting in the cockpit with one hand on the throttle and the other on the eject button...:nuts:

I can only hope tomorrow gets me to a positive 2016. First of the month and the end of the week can be tricky. Fingers crossed.

 

[JTH]

Working on the 2nd Quarter Blog today, so I'm not watching the price action much.

Starting to see some micro-volatility, as previously mentioned the gap was filled today.