JTH's Account Talk

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jpcavin said:
So....where do you think it's headed, up or down? :blink: My guess is up. Don't kill my mojo. :D
Click to expand...

My opinion is this rally still isn't out of the woods until SPX breaks and holds above 2082, needs to break that to get out of this long-term downtrend. JTH is probably more qualified than I am though, but that's just my thoughts :)
 
sniper said:
My opinion is this rally still isn't out of the woods until SPX breaks and holds above 2082, needs to break that to get out of this long-term downtrend. JTH is probably more qualified than I am though, but that's just my thoughts :)
Click to expand...

I'm just trying to will the markets higher with my Qi. :D
 
I read Tom's daily column and the SPX seems to be following the typical behavior from the H&S pattern.

Plenty of support below for it but not so much the S & I funds. I think waiting for a breakout over the middle of the "head" line is a good strategy (besides I am stuck with no IFTs anyway)

=^___^=
 
JTH said:
I see you exited to the sidelines, this might be my best opportunity to narrow the gap between us on the ark...
Click to expand...

I'm just trying to stay ahead of Whipsaw. I guess it's good to have a goal. :D Good luck with that! :laugh:
 
FAB1 said:
I read Tom's daily column and the SPX seems to be following the typical behavior from the H&S pattern.

Plenty of support below for it but not so much the S & I funds. I think waiting for a breakout over the middle of the "head" line is a good strategy (besides I am stuck with no IFTs anyway)

=^___^=
Click to expand...

jpcavin said:
I'm just trying to stay ahead of Whipsaw. I guess it's good to have a goal. :D Good luck with that! :laugh:
Click to expand...

Well, I made an attempt to do a Good Friday stat, but there's just too much to do in one session, and with this being a March/April holiday, I would have had to be extra careful to produce the right results, so I quit. Instead I've opted to rebuild the filter on the 3-day price performance stats, so I can get to them quickly each month.

Here's the last 3 days of March Vs. the first 3 days of April (helping the reader decide if they want to gut it out invested as we enter the new month).

The results show SPX has an edge over W4500, and AGG is an abomination...

2016-13-D-MISC-1.png
 
Where do you think the market will go next week? GDP is up, but seems like stock prices haven't been following fundamentals for some time
 
sniper said:
Where do you think the market will go next week? GDP is up, but seems like stock prices haven't been following fundamentals for some time
Click to expand...

Well, either I'm wrong, or the forum seems overly bearish to me. Trading day 20 (this Tuesday) is statistically the worst trading day of the March, and while the last 3 Tuesdays have closed down, they were each a short-term bottom off the 30-day rally. Aside from that, the last time I did a Day-of-Week stat was on 27 Feb and at that time, Tuesday had a 69% winning ratio. In addition, I have 2 systems in the C-Fund and I consider myself to be the 3rd system (also in the C-Fund). We are all in agreement, to be invested next week.

If I had a choice:

Monday will give us a positive close, but nothing special
Tuesday will give us a very strong close
Wednesday will be a continuation of Tuesday, but not as strong
Thursday will close down, but SPX will close the quarter up for the year
Friday is a mixed bag

But to be fair, I'm going against the daily stats on this one...

2016-13-D-MISC-2.png
 
The results show SPX has an edge over W4500, and AGG is an abomination...
Click to expand...

Doesn't AGG typically have a dividend payout on the 1st of the month? I could see how that could contaminate the 3-day stat near the beginning/end of a month. Any thoughts?
 
craigerv said:
Doesn't AGG typically have a dividend payout on the 1st of the month? I could see how that could contaminate the 3-day stat near the beginning/end of a month. Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

I extract the data from Yahoo Finance, the dividend payment is separate from the share price. I'm not a specialist in this area, but generally what is happening is investors are shedding their AGG shares after they've collected the dividend. This happens in stocks too, I've done it myself, where I didn't like my position in GE, but held on to it long enough to collect, then bailed.

Now to be fair, I am speaking about AGG and not the F-Fund, where the stats are stronger, (probably due to the div rolling back into our share price). As we can see in the chart below, the F-Fund has outperformed AGG over the past 10 of 12 months. This is why, I never refer to the F-Fund when posting stats, I mostly just use AGG as a barometer to measure against the other indexes.

2016-13-D-MISC-3.PNG

 
With those stats on F fund, wondering I should exit it on Monday....
JTH said:
Well, I made an attempt to do a Good Friday stat, but there's just too much to do in one session, and with this being a March/April holiday, I would have had to be extra careful to produce the right results, so I quit. Instead I've opted to rebuild the filter on the 3-day price performance stats, so I can get to them quickly each month.

Here's the last 3 days of March Vs. the first 3 days of April (helping the reader decide if they want to gut it out invested as we enter the new month).

The results show SPX has an edge over W4500, and AGG is an abomination...

View attachment 37740
Click to expand...
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
With those stats on F fund, wondering I should exit it on Monday....
Click to expand...

If you're referring to stats on AGG, I can only tell you this is the history over the past 12 years, during the end of March & beginning of April.

If we take closer look at 2015, we can see the last day of the month was the strongest (but this is deceptive becauase there were only 5 day-22s, 8 Day-21s, and 11 day-20s, so if we look at day 19, we can see it is week. The first 2 days of the month were weak as well.

This is why a show the "Count" on my stats, this March has 22 days, but not all months of March have 22 days, so I don't calculate data that does not exist.

2016-13-D-MISC-4.png
 
Last edited:
JTH said:
Well, either I'm wrong, or the forum seems overly bearish to me. Trading day 20 (this Tuesday) is statistically the worst trading day of the March, and while the last 3 Tuesdays have closed down, they were each a short-term bottom off the 30-day rally. Aside from that, the last time I did a Day-of-Week stat was on 27 Feb and at that time, Tuesday had a 69% winning ratio. In addition, I have 2 systems in the C-Fund and I consider myself to be the 3rd system (also in the C-Fund). We are all in agreement, to be invested next week.

If I had a choice:

Monday will give us a positive close, but nothing special
Tuesday will give us a very strong close
Wednesday will be a continuation of Tuesday, but not as strong
Thursday will close down, but SPX will close the quarter up for the year
Friday is a mixed bag

But to be fair, I'm going against the daily stats on this one...
Click to expand...

Good evening

Looks like we're just muddling through the motions today, sort of feeling things out. For today, I'll be happy if we get a close within the green channel.

2016-13-D-MISC-5.png
 
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