JTH's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
JTH said:
Thank you for mentioning that, it's very hard not to gloat when I'm right (and so much easier to dismiss the times when I'm wrong). I do not like to make bold projections, but every now and then I'm compelled to put myself out there and make risky calls. Eventually it will bite me in the azz...
Click to expand...

About 20 years ago I worked for this crazy Persian dude, great sense of humor. He called me into his office one afternoon after one of the VPs in our company lit into him because we had issues with a system that we maintained for the Navy. In his words (done with the best Persian accent), you know, the VP really chewed my azz, but you know what? That's ok, cuz I got a big azz.

May your azz always stay big my friend....:smile:
 
JTH said:
.... but every now and then I'm compelled to put myself out there and make risky calls. Eventually it will bite me in the azz...
Click to expand...

That's what keeps you humble (and maybe from starting one of them "premium services"

Not that long ago when IT's advice was free - but he did do very well last year, maybe worth the $30 for some but I can never discipline myself to following a system like his.
 
JTH said:
Thanks for staying in, keep strong brother, I'm looking for 2065 as the next price objective, we still have a peak ahead of us.
Click to expand...


Values are still not at the ends of the ranges. Are you at all a believer in momentum extending this rally? Certain indices, it seems like once they start going in one direction, they just keep chugging along no matter what the economics/news/fundamentals (until they don't).
 
rspring said:
I would have taken my gains off the table today if I had any IFT's left for this month! Da... limits.
Click to expand...
Remember, once you hit your 2 IFT, monthly limii, that limit only applies to entering equities, and F and L funds. There is no limit on exits to G fund. So you can make numerous small exits to spread risk of exiting it all at on one day that could have a late day drop.


Best wishes to you and everyone on your Investments !!!!!!! :smile:
 
rspring said:
I would have taken my gains off the table today if I had any IFT's left for this month! Da... limits.
Click to expand...

Like DBA said....You can ALWAYS take $$ off the table. Of course, NOT taking it off may have actually HELPED your situation!
I have made 3 IFTs so far this month, and am also considering taking some more off the table! :yumyum:
 
Is tomorrow, 3-18, a triple witching day?

If it is....does anyone have stats on triple witching days? Tend to go up, down, continue existing trend? And what about the next trade day...reverses or continues?

Just wondering as I ponder my next IFT, possibly for tomorrow.
 
uscfanhawaii said:
Like DBA said....You can ALWAYS take $$ off the table. Of course, NOT taking it off may have actually HELPED your situation!
I have made 3 IFTs so far this month, and am also considering taking some more off the table! :yumyum:
Click to expand...

I should have clarified that I think we still have some room to the upside and I believe JTH said we should top out around the 24th or 25th which I think he will be right again. I just thought I might be able to side step a down day or two and get back in. Timing would have to be perfect because the moves seem to be showing there hand after the cutoff execution time.
 
amoeba said:
Values are still not at the ends of the ranges. Are you at all a believer in momentum extending this rally? Certain indices, it seems like once they start going in one direction, they just keep chugging along no matter what the economics/news/fundamentals (until they don't).
Click to expand...

It's difficult for me to answer, because I haven't been using indicators this year, every now and then I'll look at some bollinger bands, but for the most part, I'm just watching price & statistics.

uscfanhawaii said:
Is tomorrow, 3-18, a triple witching day?

If it is....does anyone have stats on triple witching days? Tend to go up, down, continue existing trend? And what about the next trade day...reverses or continues?

Just wondering as I ponder my next IFT, possibly for tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Yes it is Options Ex, but no I do not have any recent data on this, I just haven't had time to rebuild this portion of my database. Last I recall (from a few years back) certain months did show a statistical edge, but for the most part, it wasn't an edge worth using an IFT. I may have some time over the next few weeks to try and rebuild it, and perhaps post those stats when I find something above the daily baseline.
 
This marks the first time this year the S&P 500 is above 0%

If we can hold this into the close, this may get some buzz with the press, which could perhaps lead to more buyers stepping in next week.

2016-11-W-MISC4.png
 
__For myself, I’m currently in the C-Fund, 2.67% MTD and -2.47% YTD
Was down at one point -12.07%, so I consider every day to be a small victory, as we strive to dig ourselves out of January's hole. I have to admit, as the end of the month gets closer, I do dread those last few days where we sometimes take a hit, but I do think it is better to start off the month already invested, so we can jump out & back in during the month. Based on my current interpretation, I believe we are operating under "risk on" conditions where this is not a time to be underinvested, or unable to invest when the next surge arrives.

Trading the Stats:*Week 12

2016-12-D-JTH.png
 
I would estimate the odds of me being right two times in a row are about 33% at best, nevertheless, I think 2057 would be an acceptable close today, let's see if the markets agree...

2016-12-W-MISC.png
 
JTH said:
I would estimate the odds of me being right two times in a row are about 33% at best, nevertheless, I think 2057 would be an acceptable close today, let's see if the markets agree...
Click to expand...

Testing the neckline

2016-12-W-MISC1.png
 
Nice volatility on the very-small scale, where the previous fake-inverted head & shoulders produced a neckline that has held some significance in today's price action.

1) Opened with a gap at the previous neckline
2) busted the neckline
3) Passed a re-test of the neckline

Considering I have low expectations, the markets are looking good.

2016-12-W-MISC4.png
 
Since my 1-minute charts have been violated, I'll post a weekly chart, showing we still have a higher high & higher low.

2016-12-W-MISC5.png
 
Going out with some friends for dinner & drinks.

That green neckline continues to hold my interest.

2016-12-W-MISC6.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
Is the market ready to explode, or has it come too far, too fast?
Replies
0
Views
284
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Bond yields putting the pressure on stocks -- holiday reversal?
Replies
0
Views
299
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Something big was brewing, all right
Replies
1
Views
445
robo
robo
tsptalk
  • Article Article
You're fired! Maybe not.
Replies
0
Views
85
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Follow through for stocks as oil plummets
Replies
1
Views
158
TommyIV
TommyIV
Back
Top