JTH's Account Talk

[Mcqlives]

Im in the ALPAFS camp...but, referencing your blog post (I cut and pasted it below) we had both of these happen today! I wish this market would pick a direction for more than a couple of days...but the swings are getting the buyers and sellers sorted out. Just which ones will prove to be right? I would love these swings if we had more moves but, as it is, we are trading as if we were handcuffed, blindfolded, and then told to throw the dart at the balloon!

__The Bears need to break below 1902's tweezers bottom to begin filling the open gaps at 1895.77 & 1864.73
__The Bulls, need to break above 1930 and make a run for the previous 1940 double top

Happy Trading all!

 

[JTH]

Im in the ALPAFS camp...but, referencing your blog post (I cut and pasted it below) we had both of these happen today! I wish this market would pick a direction for more than a couple of days...but the swings are getting the buyers and sellers sorted out. Just which ones will prove to be right? I would love these swings if we had more moves but, as it is, we are trading as if we were handcuffed, blindfolded, and then told to throw the dart at the balloon!

__The Bears need to break below 1902's tweezers bottom to begin filling the open gaps at 1895.77 & 1864.73
__The Bulls, need to break above 1930 and make a run for the previous 1940 double top

Happy Trading all!

Hello volatility!

Great to see such a strong reversal in a single day, for myself this was unexpected...

 

[FAB1]

Hello volatility!

Great to see such a strong reversal in a single day, for myself this was unexpected...

Me too. My F trade is so far. 0%

Tom mentioned we could go sideways a while - For Stocks this is not much fun but maybe the F fund will like it?

Just observing anyway until I get a IFT recharge in March.

 

[JTH]

Me too. My F trade is so far. 0%

Tom mentioned we could go sideways a while - For Stocks this is not much fun but maybe the F fund will like it?

Just observing anyway until I get a IFT recharge in March.

Indeed, I've been robbed on more than one occasion with AGG not reflecting the bond market's 15:00 cuttoff time.

 

[JTH]

 

[rspring]

View attachment 37258

It looks like we may be breaking out of this pattern. If we are able to hold on to these gains what would be the next targets to look for? Thanks

 

[JTH]

It looks like we may be breaking out of this pattern. If we are able to hold on to these gains what would be the next targets to look for? Thanks

I would agree, the pattern is busted because the right shoulder is too high, it's almost a double top. At the moment, we have a 2-month "W" pattern. If I'm going to be honest, I think the markets are currently in a state of rotation, the various indexes are re-adjusting and it's impossible for me to call targets with any predictive accuracy. At the moment, I believe we are forming a broadening pattern, with an upside bias, towards 1969, but this is very speculative.

 

[FAB1]

I would agree, the pattern is busted because the right shoulder is too high, it's almost a double top. At the moment, we have a 2-month "W" pattern. If I'm going to be honest, I think the markets are currently in a state of rotation, the various indexes are re-adjusting and it's impossible for me to call targets with any predictive accuracy. At the moment, I believe we are forming a broadening pattern, with an upside bias, towards 1969, but this is very speculative.

Well I can tell one thing - SPX is knock, knock, knocking on the 50 sma Door, again.

This is where I wanted to enter, if the buying continues tomorrow I probably missed by abandoning Ship.

 

[FAB1]

Its Oil pushing the buttons again, but the F fund is holding gains, so far even with the SPX buying spree.

It must be low volume so maybe this wont hold, I can dream, cant I?

 

[FAB1]

Looks like resistance for the DWCPF S fund too @ 925 (Feb 1st high)

 

[JTH]

Well I can tell one thing - SPX is knock, knock, knocking on the 50 sma Door, again.

This is where I wanted to enter, if the buying continues tomorrow I probably missed by abandoning Ship.

If it makes you feel any better, you took the 10th worst month of the year and earned the top 25% Feb gains over the past 41 years, you squeezed that fkin lemon dry!

I have no regrets for you, it was well-played...

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Yup, and it jumped up off that gap like a scolded dog...and ran all the way up to new highs around 1950.

 

[FAB1]

If it makes you feel any better, you took the 10th worst month of the year and earned the top 25% Feb gains over the past 41 years, you squeezed that fkin lemon dry!

I have no regrets for you, it was well-played...

One like is not enough
LIKE II

 

[JTH]

Good evening

ALPAFS flips back over to a buy, SPX/W4500/NDX have bullish price objectives.

SPX/NDX have not established an uptrend, this also marks the first test of a 50% retracement of wave C-D on SPX.

You could also argue we have a Spread Triple Top Breakout on SPX.

Unfortunately, without an IFT, this system is jailed in the G-Fund, so it will have to wait to take an entry next month.

 

[JTH]

I would agree, the pattern is busted because the right shoulder is too high, it's almost a double top. At the moment, we have a 2-month "W" pattern. If I'm going to be honest, I think the markets are currently in a state of rotation, the various indexes are re-adjusting and it's impossible for me to call targets with any predictive accuracy. At the moment, I believe we are forming a broadening pattern, with an upside bias, towards 1969, but this is very speculative.

 

[Whipsaw]

JTH, isn't the broadening fan pattern bearish? Should head down to continue that formation...?

 

[FAB1]

CNBC: Data suggest that Super Tuesday is often a bottom in the stock market, when a front-runner emerges

Don't shoot me, I'm just the piano player.

 

[JTH]

JTH, isn't the broadening fan pattern bearish? Should head down to continue that formation...?

Perhaps, I tend to follow the rule that because the previous direction led up into the pattern, it is more likely to be bullish. But chart patterns are really just junk science...

 

[Whipsaw]

Perhaps, I tend to follow the rule that because the previous direction led up into the pattern, it is more likely to be bullish. But chart patterns are really just junk science...

You mean, like global warming!

 

[JTH]

Good afternoon

Another wasted lazy morning, time to go for a jog

Trading the Stats:*Week 9