JTH's Account Talk

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Thanks for all the great comments, I did watch the video twice, it lines up with my overall expectations.

Moved JTH-ALPAFS (PnF) over into the G-Fund EoB today.
 
And the slaughter continues...

The divergence of performance between the S&P 500 & Wilshire 4500 has expanded beyond the upper outer bollinger band, under normal conditions I'd expect a snap back, but in this case I'm not holding my breath.

sc.png
 
Khotso said:
Huh! It's striking that 20 of the worst Week 1 starts occurred in just the last 39 years. Not sure what that means exactly, but more than half are among the worst ever. That says something! Market character has obviously become more volatile as compared to pre-1977.
Click to expand...

My bad, I should have reflected the time range on that chart, like I usually do. Actually, the data reflected in that chart just covered 1975-2015, I listed the bottom 20 from that period only. I try to use only the most recent 41 year data, to keep the data more current, since trends change over long periods of time. Having said this Week 1 of 2016 is the worst week 1, going back to 1950.
 
I'm still getting burned in the S-Fund, I don't know what I was thinking when I started off the year here, I knew it had been underperforming, this is what I get for anticipating a shift in price performance before it happens...

Untitled.png
 
JTH said:
My bad, I should have reflected the time range on that chart, like I usually do. Actually, the data reflected in that chart just covered 1975-2015, I listed the bottom 20 from that period only. I try to use only the most recent 41 year data, to keep the data more current, since trends change over long periods of time. Having said this Week 1 of 2016 is the worst week 1, going back to 1950.
Click to expand...


Thanks for the clarification.
 
FogSailing said:
That is one butt ugly chart JTH!!

Sometime line charts can give you a different perspective :D:D:D..Here's one for the SPX...

After reviewing the chart....GUESS NOT!!!!

FS
Click to expand...

Ha ha, you make funny...no I do not feel better :cheesy:
 
Another glorious week of battle...

Going back 65 years to 1951, there were only 16 occasions where both week 1 & 2 closed down, listed below are week 3's results. We can see the results are in favor of another down week, but this is also a very limited statistical pool of data to work with. But on the brighter side, 2015's week 3 closed up 1.60%
2016 - Week 03 - MISC1.png

Trading the Stats:*Week 3
2016 - Week 03 - JTH.png
 
I'm not gonna lie, I'm getting a bit worried, there is much work to be done for 2016.

A bit surreal SPX/W4500/TRAN meets its bearish price objective, with the NASDAQ 100 just 1 box away from meeting its PO.

SharpChartv05.png
 
I agree. I think that this situation will only continue down in a spiral. I started to bail last week but stayed in due to one of the service I use. Even the best of the best are getting it wrong this time. I am starting to believe we will see 1600 on the S & P this year maybe sooner than later. The Fed could make a statement to try to smooth things over but are really out of ammunition to help what looks like it could be the start of something bigger than a recession. It's hard to make a decision on when to bail out because of our limitations and end of day prices. Good luck to those of us that are on the pain train.
 
rspring said:
I agree. I think that this situation will only continue down in a spiral. I started to bail last week but stayed in due to one of the service I use. Even the best of the best are getting it wrong this time. I am starting to believe we will see 1600 on the S & P this year maybe sooner than later. The Fed could make a statement to try to smooth things over but are really out of ammunition to help what looks like it could be the start of something bigger than a recession. It's hard to make a decision on when to bail out because of our limitations and end of day prices. Good luck to those of us that are on the pain train.
Click to expand...

That's the killer, it's the IFT limitations which are key reason I haven't bailed. Greg Long is directly responsible for our TSP accounts losing Billions of dollars...
 
Maybe we can all write emails, daily, to Mr. Long and complain about this change to the TSP, where they limit our trades.

I have not looked, but is there an email for this guy? Something should be done, I lost all my earnings for 2015 between 12/24 and 1/7/16, that sucks.

I had been doing pretty good all year, shoot, I was in the top 50 for a little while. Oh well, a lot of work to do to get that money back.

Not sure if this has been done, the emailing the guy, but it sure as heck would be a good thing to do. I wish they would give us at least 10 trades a month.

Anyways, thinking out loud.

Good luck everyone,

Boricua
 
Boricua said:
Maybe we can all write emails, daily, to Mr. Long and complain about this change to the TSP, where they limit our trades.

I have not looked, but is there an email for this guy? Something should be done, I lost all my earnings for 2015 between 12/24 and 1/7/16, that sucks.

I had been doing pretty good all year, shoot, I was in the top 50 for a little while. Oh well, a lot of work to do to get that money back.

Not sure if this has been done, the emailing the guy, but it sure as heck would be a good thing to do. I wish they would give us at least 10 trades a month.

Anyways, thinking out loud.

Good luck everyone,

Boricua
Click to expand...

There are other folks in the forum (Like James) much more educated and politically motivated with TSP matters than I am. Aside from trashing his name on the internet, I'm not much more inclined to take it beyond that. Truth be told, the people who decided to limit out options, never cared about us in the first place, they answer to a higher power...No it's not god and not Obama (please let's not go down the political road...)
 
I've written them many emails. They've never answered one of mine but if enough of us did it, perhaps it would at least get a response.

I still think we need NARFE or one of the Unions to step up and act as the agent to address this. It simply impacts too many Feds. Most don't get it but in time they will.

At one time, I wanted to hire an attorney and sue them in a class action suit and while that does seem a bit extreme : What have they done to improve this program for the Feds?....ZILCH..

I'd be glad to support an effort to get their attention if anyone has any good ideas.

FS
 
minus 3% then plus 3% intraday to break even with no way to trade it in our time-delayed tsp accounts? that bites. i hope that wasn't the relief rally right there. does anybody have a good reason why the market changed course or is it just magic?
 
burrocrat said:
minus 3% then plus 3% intraday to break even with no way to trade it in our time-delayed tsp accounts? that bites. i hope that wasn't the relief rally right there. does anybody have a good reason why the market changed course or is it just magic?
Click to expand...

The TSP IFT limits (12 noon deadline and 2 IFTs/month) are the reason I decided last year to seriously start focusing much more on my trading account. The recent results have been astounding...probably a great dose of luck involved, and I hate to sound like I'm gloating (especially when so many people are hurting right now), but as of the close today I've more than tripled my trading account in just the first 3 weeks of 2016, and it's not a tiny account, it's in the six figures now...thank you QQQ options Gods for letting me get a series of them right! Simultaneously I've been working very hard on my TSP strategies that get around the TSP IFT limitations and I now feel comfortable that I can average well above 10% in the long term, probably much better but I'm being conservative. I just need to get through this bear market first to prove it...and I don't think it ends until October at a minimum.

I think today was the bottom of wave 1 of wave C down. The spring was coiled very tight and the rally could be fast and furious. Now we're into wave 2 up, it could go as far as 2000, even 2020, before the next collapse (wave 3 down)...which will be even worse than what we just saw, typically 1.62 times wave 1, which was ~300 points down...so now I'm revising my ultimate target for the bottom to 1400ish instead of 1575. I'm hoping to catch that wave 3 down just right....and then maybe move up my retirement date, by a lot... some have suggested that the TSP should include a fund to short the market. That will never happen, and I honestly don't think it would be a good idea for 99% of the TSPs 4.6 million participants.
 
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