JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

JTH-ESD, IFT EoB Today, 100C (Not the S-Fund because I want to start the system out in the C-Fund for next year)

 

[JTH]

Looking across the major indexes, it looks like a solid bottom is getting established...

 

[OBXTrader]

I am pulling 1/3 (including TSP) off the table today and leave the other 2/3's to ride it out going long. Went from zero to 100% invested last Friday COB.

Looking across the major indexes, it looks like a solid bottom is getting established...

View attachment 36315

 

[Mcqlives]

Looking across the major indexes, it looks like a solid bottom is getting established...

View attachment 36315

Let's hope so. Energy sector and dollar index are playing nice again. Now if the FED makes a statement that is clear and concise (what are the odds) the market should go into a nice Christmas rally....FINALLY!!!

 

[OBXTrader]

My concern is the 50 day EMA worked well today as overhead resistance, But, the FED can put all that to rest, right? My remaining 2/3's investments can benefit from the Christmas rally. I do not wish to remain range bound, Sam I am.

Momentum stocks really trailed off at the end too.

I am pulling 1/3 (including TSP) off the table today and leave the other 2/3's to ride it out going long. Went from zero to 100% invested last Friday COB.

 

[FogSailing]

Looks good JTH. According to the chart I only have 60 more points to make up before I break even....Sounds so simple.... Sheesh...

FS

 

[JTH]

Pushing JTH-ALPAFS back into the C-Fund

 

[Cactus]

Pushing JTH-ALPAFS back into the C-Fund

Really, Jason? This looks like lower highs and lower lows to me. Am I reading your PnF chart correctly?

 

[JTH]

Really, Jason? This looks like lower highs and lower lows to me. Am I reading your PnF chart correctly?

On the chart, there's a higher high and lower low (outside trend). Both SPX & the Transports have bullish price objectives, therefore the system is moved back into equities. Yes, it's an early overall signal without full participation from the other indexes, but much damage has already taken place so...

 

[Cactus]

Ah, gotcha. I was looking at the larger trend back through November. Short term I guess you have to be early to maximize gains, just so long as the bottom is in.

 

[JTH]

Thus far, this month isn’t trending with the historical norm, month-to-date the S&P 500 is on target for the 4th worst December over the past 65 years.

Trading the Stats: Week 51

 

[JTH]

Merry belated Christmas!

Trading the Stats:*Week 52

 

[JTH]

The PnF Charts are bullish across SPX/W4500/NDX with the TRANS still bearish.

Even with a higher high/low, it's hard to get excited with a low volume rally...

 

[JTH]

Stats wise, it was a rough year for 2015, but the damage was minimal, so it wasn't too bad.

For 2015, SPX traded below the previous 41-years in both winning ratio and average returns.





Trading the Stats:***Week 1

 

[FogSailing]

Thank you JTH. Great analyses and very helpful as we start a New Year!

FS

 

[OBXTrader]

Just read your blog, thanks for taking the time to write and share. The minutes leading up to the market close was ugly, we'll see if there is hangover or amnesia regarding the selling acceleration. Is JTH-ALPAS still in the C Fund at the start of the year because despite the bearish slant, the C Fund is where PnF's say it should stay instead of F or G?

For lazy L Funder's like me, the year was no damage to Buy and Hold. I only trade the L Funds, so I use them as my metric for beating the market. This was my first full year on the tracker, so it was nice to make it above the top 50 (#45) non-premium list. I stuck mostly with 2020/2030 and had very limited days in and out of market. So, win ratio was real successful. Going in and out of the 2050 would have been much more lucrative, but I am still evolving my trading and don't wish to make a big mistake as I am a pretty conservative investor.

Stats wise, it was a rough year for 2015, but the damage was minimal, so it wasn't too bad.

For 2015, SPX traded below the previous 41-years in both winning ratio and average returns.

View attachment 36508



Trading the Stats:***Week 1

 

[Lakebound]

Just read your blog, thanks for taking the time to write and share. The minutes leading up to the market close was ugly, we'll see if there is hangover or amnesia regarding the selling acceleration. Is JTH-ALPAS still in the C Fund at the start of the year because despite the bearish slant, the C Fund is where PnF's say it should stay instead of F or G?

For lazy L Funder's like me, the year was no damage to Buy and Hold. I only trade the L Funds, so I use them as my metric for beating the market. This was my first full year on the tracker, so it was nice to make it above the top 50 (#45) non-premium list. I stuck mostly with 2020/2030 and had very limited days in and out of market. So, win ratio was real successful. Going in and out of the 2050 would have been much more lucrative, but I am still evolving my trading and don't wish to make a big mistake as I am a pretty conservative investor.

For a conservative investor in that 2015 market, you did very well Jeff. My goal in retirement is much less than your 2015 returns. Well done!

Frank

 

[JTH]

Just read your blog, thanks for taking the time to write and share. The minutes leading up to the market close was ugly, we'll see if there is hangover or amnesia regarding the selling acceleration. Is JTH-ALPAS still in the C Fund at the start of the year because despite the bearish slant, the C Fund is where PnF's say it should stay instead of F or G?

As of now, it's in the C-Fund over the S-Fund, becuase it's the stronger of the two funds. We are very close to triggering an exit to G/F, becuase the NASDAQ 100 is very close to a sell. Looking at the futures, today could get real ugly...Welcome 2016!

 

[felixthecat]

As of now, it's in the C-Fund over the S-Fund, becuase it's the stronger of the two funds. We are very close to triggering an exit to G/F, becuase the NASDAQ 100 is very close to a sell. Looking at the futures, today could get real ugly...Welcome 2016!

I cannot sleep. Today pre-trading looks ominous. I have that feeling like the market is going to tank big time.

Not sure when the dow was down greater than 500 points...but today that number could be reached before recovering...only to see it slide late in the day. I cannot sleep.

The plunge protection team has probably already been notified so maybe it will not be that bad. Its going to be a long...hard day.

 

[JTH]

I cannot sleep. Today pre-trading looks ominous. I have that feeling like the market is going to tank big time. 

Not sure when the dow was down greater than 500 points...but today that number could be reached before recovering...only to see it slide late in the day. I cannot sleep. 

The plunge protection team has probably already been notified so maybe it will not be that bad. Its going to be a long...hard day.

I'm at work when the pre-markets open, so it's nice to watch the action thoughout the day. This certianly isn't the way I'd like us to kick off the new year, but hey, we've seen worse...