JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
True dat, I've given up on looking for rational reasons for the market's direction, but as ESD and the stats have pointed out, there is a traditional seasonal dip during this time of the month, and I expect we'll get a bottom here very soon.
Click to expand...

Instability in the market all year... Knee jerk reaction to everything... :sick:


Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...
 
JTH said:
Beginning to be glad I made the exit when I did (even though I exited on a down day)

Nice ramp up in volume on the downsliding Transports

View attachment 36223
Click to expand...
Here's my question? Has transports meet the projected move out of the Midterm Parallel pattern or is this a much worst Inverted Cup and Handle or is it too short of time frame? Should I trust the double bottom.
 
Bquat said:
Here's my question? Has transports meet the projected move out of the Midterm Parallel pattern or is this a much worst Inverted Cup and Handle or is it too short of time frame? Should I trust the double bottom.
Click to expand...

On the PnF Scale I use, the Transports have already met their bearish price objective, that calulation is ususally based on either a horizonatal count, or a vertical count. Looking at your chart, I would be a bit more focused on the breakdown of your ascending triangle, as more of a continuation pattern to the downside.

shitepoke said:
"Nice ramp up in volume on the down sliding Transports"

JTH, how predictive do you find your quote above??
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I'm not sure which quote you are refering to, if we are talking about statistics, then I say if you are trying to target a specifc day, then you are more likely to be dissipointed, but if you are trying to target the day of your choice within a specific week, then your results will be better.
 
JTH, i guess i was looking for the reason you ejected from equities? was it the bad week in stocks or something like the "ramp up in volume on the down sliding transports" ??
 
shitepoke said:
JTH, i guess i was looking for the reason you ejected from equities? was it the bad week in stocks or something like the "ramp up in volume on the down sliding transports" ??
Click to expand...

Truth is, I got burned on that last large rundown, (didn't want to repeat that) and looking at the weekly stats in my blog, I felt it was a good time to sit things out and look for a lower re-entry.
 
Rest of the year's weekly seasonal stats look good, so I'm going into the fire.

IFT 100S EoB today (exiting the G-Fund)
 
Well, I threw caution to wind and went in L2030, which is moderately aggressive for my investing style. When I was posting my move, glad to see you ahead of me. Good luck to us both.

JTH said:
Rest of the year's weekly seasonal stats look good, so I'm going into the fire.

IFT 100S EoB today (exiting the G-Fund)
Click to expand...
 
JamesE said:
Jason, am I reading this correctly..... no consecutive winning OR losing weeks the entire length of your chart???? So, you're "guaranteed" a winning trade for next week?
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Lol, I have no idea what you mean! The PnF chart is a real loser and in no way reflects a projection of what I think the markets will do. My particular entry is based on the seasonal data going forward, and my having gotten a lower entry than the previous exit. I'm not calling a bottom here, but I am bottom fishing...
 
Opps, I forgot to post my blog, I'll get to it later, but probly not till after the IFT cuttoff, here's the cliff notes.

Week 50

SPX (Above average)
W4500 (Very Strong)
AGG (Above average)

Daily (Trading day of the week)
Starts off weak, but gets better as we progress.

Day of the Week
Wednesday & Friday great, all others suck.
 
JTH said:
Opps, I forgot to post my blog, I'll get to it later, but probly not till after the IFT cuttoff, here's the cliff notes.

Week 50

SPX (Above average)
W4500 (Very Strong)
AGG (Above average)

Daily (Trading day of the week)
Starts off weak, but gets better as we progress.

Day of the Week
Wednesday & Friday great, all others suck.
Click to expand...

Better late than never...

Trading the Stats: Week 50
 
JTH said:
Better late than never...

Trading the Stats:Week 50
Click to expand...

Feels like market about to get a bottom feeding rally. The question...is it tomorrow or Wednesday. Will wait to see if S&P closes below 2000. Likely will miss the bounce if it can close above 2000 today. If below...well closer to Wednesday. It feels close...If I was a big gambler...I would lay all on the line for Wednesday's wild ride to a big one day Santa Recovery Rally. I believe oil will rally off oversold levels and be a big catalyst. Analysts have been upgrading oil service providers as well as some big oil names. As for the rate hike...already baked into the decline. Smart money will lead this end of the year rally. Could be a 2 1/2 to 3 percent rally Tuesday or more likely Wednesday. :D
 
felixthecat said:
Feels like market about to get a bottom feeding rally. The question...is it tomorrow or Wednesday. Will wait to see if S&P closes below 2000. Likely will miss the bounce if it can close above 2000 today. If below...well closer to Wednesday. It feels close...If I was a big gambler...I would lay all on the line for Wednesday's wild ride to a big one day Santa Recovery Rally. I believe oil will rally off oversold levels and be a big catalyst. Analysts have been upgrading oil service providers as well as some big oil names. As for the rate hike...already baked into the decline. Smart money will lead this end of the year rally. Could be a 2 1/2 to 3 percent rally Tuesday or more likely Wednesday. :D
Click to expand...

I am hoping we bounce up tomorrow and the rest of the week. Staying in this long had been horrible have most in the S fund and a bit in the C fund but hope it isn't just a one day rally. Would be nice to rally starting tomorrow to the end of the year.
 
felixthecat said:
Feels like market about to get a bottom feeding rally. The question...is it tomorrow or Wednesday. Will wait to see if S&P closes below 2000. Likely will miss the bounce if it can close above 2000 today. If below...well closer to Wednesday. It feels close...If I was a big gambler...I would lay all on the line for Wednesday's wild ride to a big one day Santa Recovery Rally. I believe oil will rally off oversold levels and be a big catalyst. Analysts have been upgrading oil service providers as well as some big oil names. As for the rate hike...already baked into the decline. Smart money will lead this end of the year rally. Could be a 2 1/2 to 3 percent rally Tuesday or more likely Wednesday. :D
Click to expand...

Wiff007 said:
I am hoping we bounce up tomorrow and the rest of the week. Staying in this long had been horrible have most in the S fund and a bit in the C fund but hope it isn't just a one day rally. Would be nice to rally starting tomorrow to the end of the year.
Click to expand...

My thinking is the overall bottom is in, but we may trade at these levels for a bit, before a test of the recent highs. PnF suggest a test of 1940, that wouldn't be fun...

SharpChartv05.png
 
JTH said:
Lol, I have no idea what you mean! The PnF chart is a real loser and in no way reflects a projection of what I think the markets will do. My particular entry is based on the seasonal data going forward, and my having gotten a lower entry than the previous exit. I'm not calling a bottom here, but I am bottom fishing...
Click to expand...

I have no idea how to read your chart is my problem. No big deal, your thoughts are more valuable to me anyway. Thanks!
 
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