JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

I love all of you, you're such a great group of people!

IFT EoB Today from 100C to 100S (My account)

I'm going to follow the stats from my most recent blog, and chase performance in the S-Fund. Below is a price comparison chart of the S&P 500 vs. the Wilshire 4500, with a 20SMA. We can see the most recent price action is favoring the small caps.

View attachment 36073

I am an idiot, I completely forgot to login to TSP.gov and perform an "Actual IFT" :1244:

 

[jkenjohnson]

I can't see you on the Auto Tracker, the only thing I can tell you is the same thing I would tell myself. Statistically speaking, this is the best time of the year to be invested and NOT a good window to "time" the markets. This is more of a long-term view, those who have short-term expectations could easily be disappointed if their short-term entry is off by a few days. For myself, I will not beat the markets this year, so at this point it's best I squeeze the lemon...

Im at 8.6%. Was at 12 but made a stupid ift

 

[Cactus]

I am an idiot, I completely forgot to login to TSP.gov and perform an "Actual IFT" :1244:

Most geniuses are focused. Oh, and thank you for reminding me I need to update the positions of the LMBF-1 methods after today. I forgot last month and got the IFT announcement out a day late. :embarrest:

 

[JTH]

It's been a long but productive week, I've moved out of the hotel and into an apartment. Once my household goods get here, it will be nice to get my monitors back vs. working on an 11" laptop. Needless to say, I'm exhausted, so this blog will be a bit shorter then usual.

Miscellaneous: In case you haven’t noticed W4500 has outperformed SPX over the past 5 days, perhaps this is the beginning of a much needed rotation?


Trading the Stats:___December & Week 48

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks so much JTH. I look forward to your updates every week. So helpful!

FS

 

[JTH]

Don't care for this volaitle price action we've been seeing recently, so I'm stepping into the G-Fund

JTH EoB Today 100G

JTH-ALPAFS EoB Today 100G

 

[JTH]

WTF?

 

[anthony]

All I can figure is post-Yellen/pre-rate increase fear ... basically "selling the news." As we know, bond price moves inversely to interest rates. Well, when the Fed's words came in yesterday, benchmarks like 10 and 20 year treasury bonds jumped by something like 2-3%. If that holds, everything before them is worth a lot less as a I understand it, so older bonds are getting dumped hard.

Only thing saving anyone in the F-Fund is that it's an aggregate bond fund. There's a whole lot of stuff in there besides 10-year treasuries, so it's much less susceptible to big bond market swings. 0.5 to 1.0% is bad, but a lot better than a single day 3% loss being felt elsewhere in bond markets. One article said you could compare this to the DOW shedding 500 points in one session. But, I guess bonds are boring so nobody cares that they just crapped their drawers.

 

[JTH]

ALPAFS is still on a sell, with SPX/W4500/TRAN/NDX all giving bearish price objectives.

I'll be keeping a close eye on the markets, looking for that ideal entry point (which I haven't gotten much in 2015)

 

[shitepoke]

JTH
love yer posts
Let us know when you see the IDEAL entry

 

[JTH]

JTH
love yer posts
Let us know when you see the IDEAL entry

Thanks, looks like I got burned on Friday...

 

[JTH]

Trading the Stats:***Week 49

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks again JTH for the great information. Looking at how things have shaken out in November and so far this month...the bots must be reading the historical data and coming out with contrarian strategies. So often it seems like the history says "up" and the market has gone down or vice versa. Wish I could be a fly on the wall in the bots server room..

FS

 

[JTH]

JTH-ESD moves into the F-Fund

 

[OBXTrader]

I saw you stated you would make the F Fund move on your blog. Back into S Fund COB the 15th. Is that date seasonal/stats based or biased by FOMC? Or Both? Thanks.

 

[JTH]

I saw you stated you would make the F Fund move on your blog. Back into S Fund COB the 15th. Is that date seasonal/stats based or biased by FOMC? Or Both? Thanks.

Thanks, ESD (Evolving Statisitical Data) is static, and not based on news-related events.

 

[JTH]

Don't care for this volaitle price action we've been seeing recently, so I'm stepping into the G-Fund

JTH EoB Today 100G

JTH-ALPAFS EoB Today 100G

Thanks, looks like I got burned on Friday...

Beginning to be glad I made the exit when I did (even though I exited on a down day)

Nice ramp up in volume on the downsliding Transports

 

[OBXTrader]

There was no explanation I could understand for the rally last Friday after NFP release. It seemed like an aberration then and still does now. Today, the market is getting back to where it was before that aberration and resuming it's IT downturn. There is no way you could have seen that coming.

Beginning to be glad I made the exit when I did (even though I exited on a down day)

Nice ramp up in volume on the downsliding Transports

View attachment 36223

 

[kb9nvh]

I bailed to 100%G yesterday.

 

[JTH]

Don't care for this volaitle price action we've been seeing recently, so I'm stepping into the G-Fund

JTH EoB Today 100G

JTH-ALPAFS EoB Today 100G

There was no explanation I could understand for the rally last Friday after NFP release. It seemed like an aberration then and still does now. Today, the market is getting back to where it was before that aberration and resuming it's IT downturn. There is no way you could have seen that coming.

True dat, I've given up on looking for rational reasons for the market's direction, but as ESD and the stats have pointed out, there is a traditional seasonal dip during this time of the month, and I expect we'll get a bottom here very soon.