JTH's Account Talk

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felixthecat said:
Greece hanging over markets. Oil ready to start a tumble soon. Dollar will remain in precurious perched position. F Fund still under some pressure. Seasonality for Tuesday is down ( means up to me...contrarian). Therefore, with C/S/I Funds remaining near their breakout points...will stay in another day since expecting a little positive in the markets on Tuesday. Still looking for a brief up couple of days...then I'm out. I freakin hate this years market trading (too unstable, too volatile, too zig-zaggy, not for the faint of heart). Going to be a bad 1/2 half of the year. Only hope to makes some gain before June. Looks like that 13 percent return I had hoped looking a bit rosy in this environment. :sick:

No move today.
Click to expand...

Yes, my 30% expectation is going to make me have to hustle this year, but hey, I'm only 5 weeks in and 28.31% away from achieving the target.
 
felixthecat said:
I freakin hate this years market trading (too unstable, too volatile, too zig-zaggy, not for the faint of heart). Going to be a bad 1/2 half of the year.
Click to expand...
Yeah I agree. Maybe this was a bad year to stop drink'n. :notrust:

This is all new to me as I am new to the forum. I figure if I can navigate through the mess with some degree of success then I'll be well schooled when the market returns to a normal and is not so volatile.
 
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Good evening

For SPX
  • Key levels remain in place
  • There is a very small gap at 2021.66
  • The past 4 days have displayed "muted" volatility
  • Buyers control prices above 2036, sellers control prices under 2020, anything in-between is the "mushy middle"
  • The bottoming tail on 2-Feb showed more "buyer's conviction", then seller's displayed on 6-Feb's topping-style tail

View attachment 32386
 
4 days of ^VIX<20EMA (which ended today) does not = "muted" to me; we saw 4-5 such days in both December and January and the short-term outcome was not favorable. I agree this pattern will break - but I don't see the direction yet (no prediction).
 
amoeba said:
4 days of ^VIX<20EMA (which ended today) does not = "muted" to me; we saw 4-5 such days in both December and January and the short-term outcome was not favorable. I agree this pattern will break - but I don't see the direction yet (no prediction).
Click to expand...

Amoeba, as a person who forges their own path, is an active participant on the forum, and allows open & honest discussions to take place, I have a special affection for you, and I mean this in the most sincerest way possible.

Our VIX is a measurement of fear, my problem with fear is that it can be detrimental to the confident trader. I can be wrong more times than right and still make money, but if I allow fear to enter the equation, then I risk sabotaging my analysis and this is the primary reason I don't measure it.

When we boil it down, the only thing we need is price and volume's conviction which supports it. All other indicator's, everything else, is based off these 2 factor's alone. You can create any chart, any indicator, and it will still in some way be a deranged derivative of price and volume. It is for this reason that I've chosen to "cut out the middle man" and go directly to the sole source from which everything is derived.

Am I crazy?

I don't think so, I believe if you stare at something long enough, you will see it for what it is.
 
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Good evening

Today, large caps were the session leaders. For the most part, we met expectations, with the NASDAQ 100 impressively closing up 1.54% thus allowing the S&P 500 to outperform the Wilshire 4500. The decline in bonds confirmed the rise in equities, all-in-all it was a decent day, but there's still work to be done.
View attachment 32389

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AGG triggered a Descending Triple Bottom Breakdown (Three back-to-back Double Bottom Breakdowns) The damage (for bonds) has been significant, with a 6-day decline, we didn't have a 6-day decline in all of 2014
View attachment 32390

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SPX was 4 points shy of triggering another Double Top Breakout, we've breached box Y1 again, and are roughly 4-5 boxes shy of new 52-week highs
View attachment 32391

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W4500 underperformed today, but I project, we'll narrow the difference against the S&P 500 over the next 2 days
View attachment 32392

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Transports lag, "We need to stay at lower energy prices for a while for this to work its way into the balance sheet."
View attachment 32393

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NASDAQ 100 triggered another Double Top Breakout and looks much healthier than my initial estimates earlier this month, it now falls closer inline with SPX/W4500
View attachment 32394
 
JTH said:
___
Good evening
Click to expand...

Thanks!!! I was just getting ready to post, on your thread, a commentary on how the good old days would have had numerous insightful and funny posts after a market day like today. I was just reviewing it when I saw you did a new post....so I deleted my BS and am posting this in response to your charts.....insightful they are. Thanks as always for your posts!!!!!!!!
 
JTH said:
___
Good evening

For SPX
  • Key levels remain in place
  • There is a very small gap at 2021.66
  • The past 4 days have displayed "muted" volatility
  • Buyers control prices above 2036, sellers control prices under 2020, anything in-between is the "mushy middle"
  • The bottoming tail on 2-Feb showed more "buyer's conviction", then seller's displayed on 6-Feb's topping-style tail
Click to expand...

Good morning :)

SPX Short-term 15-min outlook
  • Key levels remain in place (but there's a finite number of times we can expect these levels to get tested and hold)
  • There is a very small gap at 2021.66 (I believe it will get filled this Month)
  • The past 5 days have displayed "muted" volatility
  • Buyers control prices above 2042, sellers control prices under 2020, anything in-between is the "mushy middle"

View attachment 32398
 
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Took a position in TNA today at 79.77

It's not normally where I'd choose an entry, but I'm at home this week and will be able to keep a tight stop on it.
 
JTH said:
Plan to exit today or tomorrow
Click to expand...

It might be a good trade with news starting to out of Ukraine regarding current expectations (even if these should fail as the previous agreement in Minsk also failed. The bear is still hungry!). Good luck with this. Best.
 
JTH said:
___
Took a position in TNA today at 79.77

It's not normally where I'd choose an entry, but I'm at home this week and will be able to keep a tight stop on it.
Click to expand...

airlift said:
It might be a good trade with news starting to out of Ukraine regarding current expectations (even if these should fail as the previous agreement in Minsk also failed. The bear is still hungry!). Good luck with this. Best.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I could have taken a lower entry, but I slept in this morning. I'm not sweating it, since I'm at home and can manage the trade in real time, this is a larger position.
 
JTH said:
Thanks, I could have taken a lower entry, but I slept in this morning. I'm not sweating it, since I'm at home and can manage the trade in real time, this is a larger position.
Click to expand...

if it comes down again, I might consider buying some TNA. Not decided to do so.
 
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