JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Great graphs. Hope we have a better week especially considering how bad last year's 3rd week was.

Thanks!

Agreed, hard to say how things will work out, but seasonality is definitely playing out.

 

[JTH]

PnF Update:

Today the S&P 500 triggered a minor Double Top Breakout.

• We have a minor uptrend, prices are still compressing, but we do have a triple low O at 1992.9
• We have 1 higher X and 1 higher triple low O, at H3 or 1992.9

View attachment 32080

___
From 16 Jan:

NASDAQ 100 triggers a Triple Bottom Breakdown with a 3903.62 price objective roughly -4.5% away.

Note: If the pattern only produces 1 O below the breakdown, then goes back up a creates a column of Xs, then it's a Bear Trap

Today, the NASDAQ 100 signals a Bear Trap, this is just a warning, the Index maintains its bearish price objective.

• We have a firmly established downtrend, prices are basing at H5 and and the tops are descending
• We have 2 lower Xs and 3 lower Os with a double low O at H5 or 4090.7

View attachment 32081

___
Currently, we have the two market leaders, the Transports & NASDAQ 100 with bearish price objectives.

• For AGG, a break below 111.37 or -.29% puts in a reversal
• For SPX, a break below 1988 or -1.71% puts in a reversal
• For W4500, a break below 1020.64 or -1.51% puts in a reversal

View attachment 32082

 

[nnuut]

Cool stuff but what doe s thisi mean, up or down?

 

[JTH]

Cool stuff but what doe s thisi mean, up or down?

Ha! You can't fool me, you've been around longer than dirt and probably know the guy who invented PnF. Even Warren Buffet has you on speed dial

You should be telling me which way the markets are going???

 

[pmaloney]

Now I'm confused. I thought that it meant that the market would go up and down repeatedly but that it would probably be up in the future. Of course it depends on what point you pick in the future as long as we are lucky because past performance is not a guarantee of future expectations.

Great graphs and I really remember how bad January 23 and 24 of 2014 was. Ouch!

 

[JTH]

Now I'm confused. I thought that it meant that the market would go up and down repeatedly but that it would probably be up in the future. Of course it depends on what point you pick in the future as long as we are lucky because past performance is not a guarantee of future expectations.

Great graphs and I really remember how bad January 23 and 24 of 2014 was. Ouch!

Thank you, the graphs are always fun to do.

View attachment 32085

 

[JTH]

___
Look for AGG to breakout/down and provide confirmation of market direction.

View attachment 32093

___
Look for SPX to close above 2025 and/or break above the descending red trendline

View attachment 32094

___
Notice the disordered inverted Head & Shoulders bottom, look for a close above 1042

View attachment 32095

 

[jpcavin]

___
Look for AGG to breakout/down and provide confirmation of market direction.

View attachment 32093

___
Look for SPX to close above 2025 and/or break above the descending red trendline

View attachment 32094

___
Notice the disordered inverted Head & Shoulders bottom, look for a close above 1042

View attachment 32095

These descriptions are much easier to understand by us slow folks (e.g. breakout/down, break above, etc).

 

[JTH]

Notice the disordered inverted Head & Shoulders bottom, look for a close above 1042

Here's the outline of the inverted H&S

View attachment 32096

 

[jkenjohnson]

Here's the outline of the inverted H&S

View attachment 32096

U still 100% S?

 

[JTH]

Yes, I missed the last 2 windows of opportunity to sideline, just didn't feel like pulling the trigger.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Yes, I missed the last 2 windows of opportunity to sideline, just didn't feel like pulling the trigger.

thanks, just checking

 

[JTH]

These descriptions are much easier to understand by us slow folks (e.g. breakout/down, break above, etc).

Thanks, I'm always looking for better ways to simplify, clarify and describe the price action, it's an evolving process.

 

[JTH]

View attachment 32103
View attachment 32104

 

[jason011235813]

I need help w PnF graphs. And the triangles.

 

[jason011235813]

I have a vague idea of pnf. When i see the column of Xs w the 1 (meaning January) in the middle, is the whole column Jan, or just above? (X is positive, O is negative)

 

[JTH]

I need help w PnF graphs. And the triangles.

I have a vague idea of pnf. When i see the column of Xs w the 1 (meaning January) in the middle, is the whole column Jan, or just above? (X is positive, O is negative)

Within the realm of technical analysis, PnF is one of the oldest forms of charting prices. It's an acquired taste, not everyone gravitates towards it, PnF doesn't use many technical indicators, because it's primary focus is the movement of price. A triangle is a common pattern used by chartist to identify and anticipate movement in price. In the case below, a triangle can identify a potential reversal.

PnF Charting

Triangle Breakdown

 

[JTH]

View attachment 32106

View attachment 32107

 

[JTH]

___
Difficult to TA volatility on the smaller timeframes and apply them to the long-term. There was too much visual noise, so I cleaned up the charts last night.

View attachment 32108

 

[jason011235813]

Movement of price you say, well i graph the closing price for each fund daily.