JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

From: PnF-Key Support Gets Tested

The NASDAQ 100

• Is resting on a Triple Bottom with no identifiable support below
• Another -.22% at 4080.50 triggers a Triple Bottom Breakdown (this is not a common pattern)

NASDAQ 100 triggers a Triple Bottom Breakdown with a 3903.62 price objective roughly -4.5% away.

Note: If the pattern only produces 1 O below the breakdown, then goes back up a creates a column of Xs, then it's a Bear Trap

View attachment 32026

 

[JTH]

These are candlestick star patterns, but I call them forks

View attachment 32027

 

[JTH]

Lot's of fun to be had

View attachment 32029

 

[JTH]

Did buyers step in? Check out the volume. Need to get back into the green zone and turn the descending parallel price channel back into support.

View attachment 32030

 

[WorkFE]

Thanks for the lesson today JTH

 

[JTH]

Thanks for the lesson today JTH

No problem, I'm off today so just having some fun

 

[MrJohnRoss]

AGG has an astonishing 91% winning ratio over the past 11 Fridays

Yes, but how low can bond yields go? When I look at the chart of $TNX, all is see is *Danger, Danger* and red lights flashing.

 

[JTH]

Yes, but how low can bond yields go? When I look at the chart of $TNX, all is see is *Danger, Danger* and red lights flashing.

I don't look at stats like that and think it's going to sustain, I go contraction and look for it to revert back to the long term statistical average, which in this case is 65% over the last 100 Fridays. I also think it's fair to consider that AGG is in uncharted territory with no historical overhead resistance, so calling a top is a difficult proportion.

View attachment 32036



Looking for a pennant/flag

View attachment 32034

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I don't look at stats like that and think it's going to sustain, I go contraction and look for it to revert back to the long term statistical average, which in this case is 65% over the last 100 Fridays. I also think it's fair to consider that AGG is in uncharted territory with no historical overhead resistance, so calling a top is a difficult proportion.

I hear ya, JTH. I'm calling a short term top in AGG. What I see is the PPO at record levels (which is basically the percentage above the 50 DMA), which indicates the rubber band is stretched too far. The RSI is also at extreme levels, which also typically produce a pullback. The current 5 DMA slope is also unsustainable. This rocket ship needs to come down. If it doesn't come down.... KA-BLAM! We're all in BIG trouble, IMHO.

 

[JTH]

I hear ya, JTH. I'm calling a short term top in AGG. What I see is the PPO at record levels (which is basically the percentage above the 50 DMA), which indicates the rubber band is stretched too far. The RSI is also at extreme levels, which also typically produce a pullback. The current 5 DMA slope is also unsustainable. This rocket ship needs to come down. If it doesn't come down.... KA-BLAM! We're all in BIG trouble, IMHO.

Agreed, I felt something was amiss when AGG closed up on Jan 2, the 1st trading day of AGG has a 15% winning ratio, as of late the stats are playing like it's opposite day...

 

[JTH]

Here's the money shot

Prices engage with both a 50% retake of the 1022-1042 price range and the top of the descending parallel price channel

View attachment 32038

 

[JTH]

Looking for a pennant/flag

Pattern processing...

View attachment 32039

 

[JTH]

Here's the money shot

Prices engage with both a 50% retake of the 1022-1042 price range and the top of the descending parallel price channel

Nice execution

View attachment 32043

 

[JTH]

Looking for a pennant/flag[/ATTACH]

Pattern processing...

Pattern executed...

View attachment 32044

 

[pmaloney]

Great stuff! Sure made my week after yesterday.
Have a great weekend!

 

[Dutchy]

Thanks for the great charts! Went to S Fund today and to TQQQ mid morning with a good buy in price.
Hoping for more next week...

 

[JTH]

Blog #200

Trading the Stats: Week 3

 

[JTH]

View attachment 32070

 

[JTH]

Blog #200

Trading the Stats: Week 3

Here's some additional info for Week 3.

View attachment 32078

View attachment 32079

 

[pmaloney]

Great graphs. Hope we have a better week especially considering how bad last year's 3rd week was.

Thanks!