JTH's Account Talk


JTH,

These are very important charts. Thank you. Can you please explain the meaning of the -1 and -2 red trend strength on the TRAN and the NDX in context with the green strength strength depicted for the double top breakout of SPX and W4500? That is, do these weaker indicators drag down the possibility of a stronger, more lasting, and higher price rally or not? Tia
 
JTH,

These are very important charts. Thank you. Can you please explain the meaning of the -1 and -2 red trend strength on the TRAN and the NDX in context with the green strength strength depicted for the double top breakout of SPX and W4500? That is, do these weaker indicators drag down the possibility of a stronger, more lasting, and higher price rally or not? Tia

Each higher high & low are given a value of 1, while each lower high & low are given a value of -1. The Trend strength indicator is the sum of those values. In the case of the NASDAQ 100, it has 1 higher high and 3 lower lows, so the sum is -2.
 
Well each one has a negative bias with a strong negative average gain.

Doesn't that mean that it is not a time to buy? Or contrarians rule?

Each of the indexes (SPX/RUT/AGG) have their own paths. The Mon-Fri charts are posted to help users decide if it's a good day to buy or to sell, and to identify trends as they emerge. The Trading day stats identify the general seasonality of that period. I do agree that eventually out-of-balance statistics will gravitate or equalize back to the norm, and it's at times they are out-of-balance that it can make for a great contra-play.
 
___
I remember a time when I loved Tuesdays...
Its been 13 weeks since the S&P 500 has had a Tuesday over 1%

Looking at the 4-hour chart
  • The second half of Tuesday shows a weaker 35% winning ratio and weaker -.05% gains
  • If 12:00 closes up, the 16:00 close has a 60% winning ratio, but the average gains are much weaker than the negative gains and the last 3 were down
  • If 12:00 closes down, the 16:00 close is break-even, but the average positive/negative gains are even with .02% average gains

View attachment 32177
 
Back
Top