JTH's Account Talk

[rspring]

JT,I think Birch is controling this market so he can convince us not to try to time it. What is your crystal ball telling you? You've been kinda quiet.

 

[JTH]

JT,I think Birch is controling this market so he can convince us not to try to time it. What is your crystal ball telling you? You've been kinda quiet.

I am only quiet when I'm wrong...

I knew seasonality was on target, but the 15-Aug double reversal threw a wrench in my timing. Regardless, I'm going in because I can't afford to be under-invested during this timeframe.

IFT 100S EoB today

 

[airlift]

I am only quiet when I'm wrong...

I knew seasonality was on target, but the 15-Aug double reversal threw a wrench in my timing. Regardless, I'm going in because I can't afford to be under-invested during this timeframe.

IFT 100S EoB today

JTH, you have previously done excellent analysis with TNA and TZA. How many days or weeks can one hold TNA before it decays. That is, if you compare this 3x leveraged ETF with iwm, DWCPF or the tsp S fund, will TNA perform in similar fashion as those? Tia.

 

[Bquat]

I am only quiet when I'm wrong...

I knew seasonality was on target, but the 15-Aug double reversal threw a wrench in my timing. Regardless, I'm going in because I can't afford to be under-invested during this time frame.

IFT 100S EoB today

I'll have to think about this one. I was thinking post patriot day (9/11) to enter but I do trust your moves more than mine.:cheesy: Maybe after the top gap is filled and will consider JTH +1 overnight.

 

[JTH]

JTH, you have previously done excellent analysis with TNA and TZA. How many days or weeks can one hold TNA before it decays. That is, if you compare this 3x leveraged ETF with iwm, DWCPF or the tsp S fund, will TNA perform in similar fashion as those? Tia.

You have to figure this out for yourself based on what your goals are. Point of reference and length of time are two factors used to measure decay or loss of tracking.

In the picture below, we can see that over the past 6 months, both ETFs are in the negative.

View attachment 30088

 

[JTH]

I'll have to think about this one. I was thinking post patriot day (9/11) to enter but I do trust your moves more than mine.:cheesy: Maybe after the top gap is filled and will consider JTH +1 overnight.

This is an end of month IFT, nothing special, we could pullback today, tomorrow, or two weeks, I'm just getting into position.

 

[Bquat]

This is an end of month IFT, nothing special, we could pullback today, tomorrow, or two weeks, I'm just getting into position.

I kind of figured that out, after the fact, that you'll start the month invested and still will have two IFT's left. Glad I have a day to play with.

 

[BooDog]

This is an end of month IFT, nothing special, we could pullback today, tomorrow, or two weeks, I'm just getting into position.

Exactly what I was thinking. The only thing that kept me in earlier this month was a post made by sentimentrader on the 20th market analisys that gets posted on the home page here. I looked closer and felt a bit more confident riding it out a bit more. This was the comment...
"Taking a look at a 2-year chart shows that almost all attempts at new highs turn into new highs. With only a few exceptions, the new highs led to a continued rally. Several of the other breakouts never came back below the breakout level, but the ones marked in red did."
Keeping that in mind it looks like we could still see a push higher but I'm thinking we're also closer to a decent pull back. I don't mind missing tops and bottoms, it's missing by a mile that gets a bit frustrating. I'm not expecting a major pull back, but if it happens I hope it isn't today . Your ETF reference chart and the market rebound supports both a potential for continuation in the markets AND a potential for the money that's been on the sidelines for summer to start coming back in. Which contradicts my planned move back to G today.

On one of my stock forums I'm somehow labeled as a "Jedi Padawan", I don't even know what that is lol. But I'll be the first to admit I don't know everything and if I don't know what I'm talking about I'll say so. After writing this post? I have no idea. I'll see how the markets look today but my transfer back to mostly g is already in.

 

[rktect1]

Im still waiting for the end of the month. Problem is that holiday weekend.

 

[JTH]

Ya know, work has been busy, I just don't have the time or energy to manage my positions. I spend 30 dollars a month for my charting software and it's something I don't need, it's just nice to have. I"d be better off canceling that subscription, join Intrepid's service, spend the extra 10 dollars on scratch-offs, and still come out ahead.

 

[JamesE]

Or...

As long as we're in this continuing bull market, push your chips into C or S and let it ride. Who beat 38.35% last year trying to time this market? I lost money I'll never get back over the last four years getting "cute" with the bull market. Waaaay less stress man...

 

[JimmyJoe]

Ya know, work has been busy, I just don't have the time or energy to manage my positions. I spend 30 dollars a month for my charting software and it's something I don't need, it's just nice to have. I"d be better off canceling that subscription, join Intrepid's service, spend the extra 10 dollars on scratch-offs, and still come out ahead.

This is exactly the kind of day, with the market going up and down, that teaches the average investor to simply hang with stocks, and watch your money grow slowly. Today the market went up and down then up. Who can time it?

 

[Bquat]

Ya know, work has been busy, I just don't have the time or energy to manage my positions. I spend 30 dollars a month for my charting software and it's something I don't need, it's just nice to have. I"d be better off canceling that subscription, join Intrepid's service, spend the extra 10 dollars on scratch-offs, and still come out ahead.

Do what you need to do. I can remember back when a 60 hour week was the short week.

 

[GUCHI]

Do what you need to do. I can remember back when a 60 hour week was the short week.

Bquat just wonder n who the hell did you work for, obviously not the gubmint like I know it heehee

 

[jonfresno]

Ya know, work has been busy, I just don't have the time or energy to manage my positions. I spend 30 dollars a month for my charting software and it's something I don't need, it's just nice to have. I"d be better off canceling that subscription, join Intrepid's service, spend the extra 10 dollars on scratch-offs, and still come out ahead.

Or follow a member of the LMBF Familia - more money for scratch-offs

I'm seriously thinking about I.T. too. So well worth it.

 

[Bquat]

Bquat just wonder n who the hell did you work for, obviously not the gubmint like I know it heehee

Just remembering back to night field testing for DOD.

 

[JTH]

Do what you need to do. I can remember back when a 60 hour week was the short week.

I understand what your saying, I don't work 60 hours a week, if I did, you'd still only get 40 hours worth of work out of me. Problem is, I'm eligible to retire in less than 3 years and I really need to dedicate the remainder of this time to my career, my Airman and transitioning into civilian life. Truth is I only have a finite amount of mental energy, something has to give and I can't afford to spend countless hours analyzing market data, especially when there are other (more important) things to tend to. I may not get out at the 20-year mark, but at the same time, I want to be prepared to do so if I choose to.

 

[Scout333]

Si! Planning for retirement is a full time job! Who knew not working was so complicated.

 

[JTH]

Si! Planning for retirement is a full time job! Who knew not working was so complicated.

I agree, the bigger problem is that it will be my 1st retirement, not the last. I'm not looking forward to joining the real world...

 

[JamesE]

I compare daily market watching, charting, and guessing under TSP restrictions to balancing a personal checkbook. Why bother? When was the last time the bank was wrong?? In these last 5-1/2 years, it has been a futile effort to beat the market. Hell, I even paid an investment service, hoping to recoup previous losses, last year to loose like 10% getting caught in the "whipsaw" of last summer. That was the last straw for me.

I stay informed, but not consumed.