JTH's Account Talk

[airlift]

Just a quick note, a down Friday followed by a down Monday usually leads to lower prices within the next week, but that doesn't always mean it's a lower close.

JTH, considering the bearish TSPtalk survey for this week, would these lower prices be supportive of holding bullish positions, through the end of the week, or not? or does the fact that this doesn't always mean that it's going to mean a lower close, allow for a most likely reversal in the direction of the market to the upside? Thank you.

 

[JTH]

JTH, considering the bearish TSPtalk survey for this week, would these lower prices be supportive of holding bullish positions, through the end of the week, or not? or does the fact that this doesn't always mean that it's going to mean a lower close, allow for a most likely reversal in the direction of the market to the upside? Thank you.

For the SS, I haven't looked at it in months does it still exist?

 

[uscfanhawaii]

For the SS, I haven't looked at it in months does it still exist?

Survey still goes out on Thurs, and results are posted on Friday. The thing that has changed is the evaluation is now 'proprietary' and you have to be a "Plus" subcriber to get this evaluation.
That being said, last week was 59% Bulls to 29% Bears. I am not privy to the evaluation since I am not a Plus subscriber, but this seems to be a pretty strong Bearish Survey. I checked the AII survey results for last week and it was 42% Bulls and 23% Bears, so it was not quite so bearish as our own internal survey, But so far this week, our internal survey seems to have really picked it! My guess is this week's survey will be quite a bit more Bears (which is bullish). Question is when will it change in the actual market....I am ready to jump in with my last 50% this week some time! :nuts:

 

[JTH]

Thanks!


SPX riding along the key 1985 level.

A Handful of Pennies

 

[Bquat]

JTH, since it seems you are getting a little more active, what do you think about my VIX chart? Does it look it's going to break down?

 

[JTH]

JTH, since it seems you are getting a little more active, what do you think about my VIX chart? Does it look it's going to break down?

Hi Bill

I haven't been tracking the VIX, the main reason being that I try not to track charts which don't illustrate volume. The only exception to that is W4500 which I use IWM's volume as a suitable-sub. I'm not one to call a top in the VIX because I don't trust fear, sometimes there's a correlation with market price and other times there isn't. Looking at the daily, we do appear to be more overbought, but with the 20 & 50 SMAs floating just under price, this is indicative of the price congestion we've been seeing on most of the major indexes.

 

[Bquat]

Thanks

 

[Rogue]

You guys know you speak, what seems to me to be, a foreign language sometimes, right?
I need a finance geek-to-layperson translation occasionally.

 

[JTH]

[h=4]A Pocket Full of Dust[/h]

 

[rktect1]

Well, I think the fat lady just started singing.

 

[JTH]

Double Bottom Breakdown

 

[airlift]

Double Bottom Breakdown

JTH,

Thank you for the excellent charts and your opinion. Query: I am not versed in P&F patterns. Based on your opinion, since we are bound to go down from here with a bearish price objective of 1920.0, do you think next week should most likely continue to sell-off? Tia.

 

[TSPIntel]

JTH, Thank U for U Likes... Have a Super Great Day

 

[JTH]

JTH,

Thank you for the excellent charts and your opinion. Query: I am not versed in P&F patterns. Based on your opinion, since we are bound to go down from here with a bearish price objective of 1920.0, do you think next week should most likely continue to sell-off? Tia.

Airlift. I have been largely absent these past few months due to my work load, so for now I am posting minimal observations until I can establish a routine and re-acquire a feel for the price action.

As for PnF, I do not hold much weight in the formulas they use to calculate their price objectives, mostly because I have not personally back-tested them myself. I generally think there estimates overshoot, but this is something you can decide yourself.

PnF: Bearish Breakdown Method

 

[JTH]

Latest Blog: It's not over, or is it?

 

[airlift]

Latest Blog: It's not over, or is it?

JTH,

When you say that you think much of September's decline may have already taken place in AGG, and that we are within a hair's reach of median price, do you think that AGG is most likely to rise from this level? or is AGG most likely to decline this week before rising from this level? Tia.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

When you say that you think much of September's decline may have already taken place in AGG, and that we are within a hair's reach of median price, do you think that AGG is most likely to rise from this level? or is AGG most likely to decline this week before rising from this level? Tia.

It depends on how you look at it, AGG is in a 7-day uptrend and 20-day downtrend. From the last 5 columns, we have a higher high & lower low, and have yet to recapture (and turn into support) median price. Essentially, AGG is trendless, for myself, I would not want to take an entry until a higher low is established, but in the grand scheme of things bonds are a relatively low risk play when compared alongside stocks. If I were making a 3-day play, then I tend to take the G-Fund, anything longer and I prefer the F-Fund.

 

[JTH]

AGG's 30 min chart showing a Diamond Breakout, confirmed with a Triple Top Breakout on the 30 min PnF.

View attachment 30399

View attachment 30401

 

[rktect1]

Is that good?

 

[JTH]

Transports getting a bid on the 30-minute scale.

View attachment 30420

View attachment 30421