July's Seasonal Forecast
1) AGG will close flat .25% to .50% (Look for 1 July to close down, as it has the last 10 years straight) (Remember the dividend tends to offset Tuesday's payout)
2) SPX will close up 1% to 2.25% (Tagging 2000-2025) (Support @ 1900-1910) (Closed 49 days with less than 1% move) (Prices are consolidating/rotating, expect rising prices until 18 July's Options Ex)
3) W4500 will close up 1.25% to 3.25% (1060-1080) (Support @ 1000-1025) (Seasonally weaker than SPX)
Seasonal IFT recommendation
1) 30 June, IFT 100 C (less risk) or S (more risk)
2) 18 July, IFT 100 G (less risk) or F (more risk) (for short-term allocations, G is the smarter play) (If on 18 July you think the markets will tank, F is the smarter play)
3) 24 July, IFT 100 C (less risk) or S (more risk)
Observation
Within TSP, don't buy on the day of a flash crash. When a flash crash happens, prices quickly gravitate to the strongest area of support where buy orders kick in and ruin your End of Day entry price. This often creates a candlestick with a long tail, wait 1-2 weeks to see if prices gravitates back to the flash crash lows, then take the entry.
Trading Notes
We don’t hope, we calculate, we analyze and we execute.
July's History, going back to 1950
Of the 65 July's on record, 35 have closed up (or 54%) for an average 35-Month positive gain of 4.05%, for an average 29-Month negative gain of -2.64% and a 65-Month average gain of 1.02%
If the first 2 days close down, of the 10 times this has happened there's a 70% chance the month will close down.
If the first 3 days close down, of the 6 times this has happened there's an 83% chance the month will close down.
If the first 2 days close up, of the 27 times this has happened there's a 74% chance the month will close up.
If the first 3 days close up, of the 17 times this has happened there's an 82% chance the month will close up.
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