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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!JTH's Account Talk
- Thread starter JTH
- Start date
ravensfan
Well-known member
Hey, I'll ride on the JTH Train for a bit...
Bquat
Well-known member
YepMy monthly will hit that tonight.
Big news hit today. I really don't know if were good now. Weekly and monthly candles ar pretty much red. The VIX might be peaked.
JTH
Well-known member
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
JTH,
From your chart below, are you insinuating we're tapping the bottom of the channel now...and holding?
JTH
Well-known member
Those are the dominant channels I'm watching, anything below those trendlines raises a flag.
Mcqlives
Active member
JTH,
Several months ago you turned me on to the inverse relationship between the index funds we trade and TZA. I follow it on a regular basis now, thanks! The reason for this post today is todays TZA action. It raises some red flags for me and I was wondering what your thoughts were. Please check it out and let me (us) know your thoughts.
Thanks!
JTH
Well-known member
I wouldn't play TZA at these levels, from the 15-May top to 1-Jul bottom, price has failed to capture a 50% retracement, it is also tracking weaker when compared to TNA (meaning their true inverse relationship is slightly off.)
Transports are overbought both within the 125-day channel and the bollinger bands, the hourly has formed a middle-finger-formation, I would expect a pullback from here, which should fare significantly worse for the small caps.
Long story short, this market is lethargic, when the indexes are not in agreement, it should be seen as a warning sign, this is classic summertime action.JTH, Please see article/chart below... I see an overdue 4% correction coming. Thoughts ? Thanks.
Why the S&P rally is nothing to get freaked out about, in one graph - The Tell - MarketWatch
JTH
Well-known member
Just for the record, market wise, I've been in a fairly pissy & disgusted mood this month (more so than usual)
There isn't a whole lot TSP folks can do under these conditions to outperform the markets. Low-Volatility-Trickle-Up followed with High-Volatility-Surge-Down is difficult to play, especially if your IFT is just slightly off and you end up losing 5 days of gains in 1 day. Like it or not, this is the market we a dealing with, there will be no shortage of folks calling for a correction, when it does happen, more folks will be caught in it than not.
I have no desire to be in this market, that lack of desire is only outweighed by my lack of desire to take a loss.
JTH
Well-known member
I've already held the position longer than expected, from here it's day-to-day or fly-by-wire.
JTH
Well-known member
Alright folks, I don't mean to offend, but I'm not going to answer these G/F questions, I simply won't speculate on something I cannot see. Under these conditions, I'd rather just sit back and evaluate the price action until something warrants my attention.
On a lighter note, I have a cabin off a lake reserved for a few days, I'm going to spend some time relaxing with my wife and children, take out the old 11' aluminum canoe, stick a rod in the water, drink some beer, and disconnect somewhat from the cloud, those are my plans for the immediate future.
In the meantime, here is 4-hour chart of W4500 outlining a beautiful rising parallel price channel, watch those levels of support and resistance on the horizontal & diagonal axis, and watch the volume on IWM, they tell the story.
1060, 1050, 1040, 1030, 1020, 1015, 1000
View attachment 29686
kave
Member
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