JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

JTH,

I, and many others, think you are fine. I am sure we know a bit about the laws of probabilities. It is normal to get caught in a downwave. We would otherwise have yearly gains of 100% plus. A good friend reminded me that we are now in the worst four months of the year. Your work is excellent. Good stuff!

Lol, we are also in the best month of the 3rd quarter

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I am not having this problem, I use Firefox

 

[jkenjohnson]

WHY YOU'RE FAT. | Furious Pete Talks

I don't think he likes fat people.

 

[rktect1]

The silence on this particular thread is unnerving.

 

[JTH]

Quick note, I did expect to re-test the lows from this last downwave.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Quick note, I did expect to re-test the lows from this last downwave.

So you still think we have some gains forthcoming?

 

[JTH]

So you still think we have some gains forthcoming?

Sorry buddy, I haven't focused much on the markets, been busy with work stuff.

Word of the day, Volatility, I'll have to eval the price action tonight when I get home, from there I'll post something.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Sorry buddy, I haven't focused much on the markets, been busy with work stuff.

Word of the day, Volatility, I'll have to eval the price action tonight when I get home, from there I'll post something.

Thanks Jason.

 

[JTH]

Back to 1030

View attachment 29424

Back to the post holiday 1030, like watching groundhog day, Transports makes new highs, SPX trades flat, and Small caps trade down. For the moment, I'm seeing some divergences leading me to believe the small caps are picking the correct direction. OTOH Friday's post options Ex may kick it off, historically it's been down, but this particular July hasn't met my historical expectations.

View attachment 29551

 

[jkenjohnson]

Thanks

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Back to the post holiday 1030, like watching groundhog day, Transports makes new highs, SPX trades flat, and Small caps trade down. For the moment, I'm seeing some divergences leading me to believe the small caps are picking the correct direction. OTOH Friday's post options Ex may kick it off, historically it's been down, but this particular July hasn't met my historical expectations.

View attachment 29551

JTH,

You thinking of bailing out?
Or at least shifting to the -C- or -I- Fund?

 

[JTH]

JTH,

You thinking of bailing out?
Or at least shifting to the -C- or -I- Fund?

I haven't seen enough data to push me out of the markets just yet. While this 2% haircut has definitely been a bad trade, it hasn't been a horrible trade. In the big picture, this has been a weak pullback, if we can wait this out, then I still think we can eek some upside out of this. We need a strong closing day to pick this market's direction.

 

[nasa1974]

I haven't seen enough data to push me out of the markets just yet. While this 2% haircut has definitely been a bad trade, it hasn't been a horrible trade. In the big picture, this has been a weak pullback, if we can wait this out, then I still think we can eek some upside out of this. We need a strong closing day to pick this market's direction.

A strong close would be great but I will settle for anything above zero.

 

[JTH]

I usually have a mental 3% circuit breaker, I'm already down -2.05% and this was after the 3-day gain from the beginning of the month. Transports are overbought, ripe for a pullback, SPX is equalized & flat, while the W4500 is oversold and embedded. From my perspective, this isn't a good time to be in the markets, I honestly don't know what these markets will do, my gut instinct is telling me to get out now.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I usually have a mental 3% circuit breaker, I'm already down -2.05% and this was after the 3-day gain from the beginning of the month. Transports are overbought, ripe for a pullback, SPX is equalized & flat, while the W4500 is oversold and embedded. From my perspective, this isn't a good time to be in the markets, I honestly don't know what these markets will do, my gut instinct is telling me to get out now.

I been thinking this for months.

 

[Bquat]

I usually have a mental 3% circuit breaker, I'm already down -2.05% and this was after the 3-day gain from the beginning of the month. Transports are overbought, ripe for a pullback, SPX is equalized & flat, while the W4500 is oversold and embedded. From my perspective, this isn't a good time to be in the markets, I honestly don't know what these markets will do, my gut instinct is telling me to get out now.

Well did you?

 

[rktect1]

I hate July.

 

[Bquat]

I usually have a mental 3% circuit breaker, I'm already down -2.05% and this was after the 3-day gain from the beginning of the month. Transports are overbought, ripe for a pullback, SPX is equalized & flat, while the W4500 is oversold and embedded. From my perspective, this isn't a good time to be in the markets, I honestly don't know what these markets will do, my gut instinct is telling me to get out now.

My monthly will hit that tonight. Big news hit today. I really don't know if were good now. Weekly and monthly candles ar pretty much red. The VIX might be peaked.

 

[JTH]

My monthly will hit that tonight. Big news hit today. I really don't know if were good now. Weekly and monthly candles ar pretty much red. The VIX might be peaked.

This look familiar?

View attachment 29588

 

[JTH]

50% retracement off the 15-May swing low

View attachment 29589

 

[JTH]

I usually have a mental 3% circuit breaker, I'm already down -2.05% and this was after the 3-day gain from the beginning of the month. Transports are overbought, ripe for a pullback, SPX is equalized & flat, while the W4500 is oversold and embedded. From my perspective, this isn't a good time to be in the markets, I honestly don't know what these markets will do, my gut instinct is telling me to get out now.

I been thinking this for months.

Well did you?

Still in, this recent swing of bad news was needed to push prices to where they need to go. We need to let these sellers exhaust themselves until they are ready to become buyers again. Flip the script, my July seasonal projection hasn't panned out, in fact, the opposite has happened. With the July 4th reversal, perhaps the traditional bearish post Options Ex will actually be a bullish reversal, this is what I'm expecting and this is why I won't exit tomorrow.

Also, let's put some clarity on this, C-Fund is down -.01% MTD while the S-Fund is down -3.27% Buyers aren't stepping out of the markets, they've been stepping into the large caps (the protection play.) Once the downside is finished, then I would expect buyers to noticed the large caps are overvalued while the small caps are undervalued, hence there is more money to be made in the S-Fund.

No risk, no reward, I'm in...